October 3, 2007

The HLS Totally Non-Homer Top 25 – Week 5: Does It Really Matter After 1 and 2?

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We were tempted to throw Duke in here just because, after 1 and 2, can it really be said that any of the remaining 23 are playing “exceptional football?” Can you really look at any other teams and say, with great confidence that they’d beat the 94 other teams not getting ranked (so long as they avoid committing 16 penalties)? I can’t.

Here’s what I’d like to do:

  1. LSU
  2. Southern Cal
  3. Everybody Else

But I can’t, so…

  1. LSU
  2. Southern Cal
  3. Ohio State
  4. BC
  5. Wisconsin
  6. Cal
  7. Kentucky
  8. South Florida
  9. Florida
  10. Georgia
  11. Oregon
  12. Hawaii
  13. Arizona State
  14. Cincinnati
  15. Clemson
  16. Virginia
  17. Oklahoma
  18. VaTech
  19. West Virginia
  20. Texas
  21. Missouri
  22. South Carolina
  23. Purdue
  24. Nebraska
  25. Michigan State

Notes: Essentially #s 3-25 are ranked based on record alone, which is lame because any one of these teams could be indicted for fraud once you take a glimpse at their schedules. Most if not all of these so called “elite” teams have already managed 2-3 cupcake games. Debates about causation versus correlation are sure to follow.

Having South Florida anywhere in a top 10 should be reason for disconnection from the internets. We just don’t know what the heck else to do. “They stand among the top of the Big East! They deserve it!” some will cry. But that’s not actually true. UConn is atop the Big East right now, with a 5-0 overall record and a 1-0 league record. So that logic doesn’t really hold. Why isn’t UConn in our top 25? Because we ran out of room. Yes, South Florida is playing good ball. They beat a “top team” in West Virginia in an excellent display of “how to score only 21 points even when your opponent turns the ball over 6 times.” Wow. Impressive. Hey, maybe you could go beat the crap out of a dead karate master for your next trick.

Last weekend really ruined any groundwork that the first 4 weeks of the season laid. We’re pretty much back to square one at this point, and we’ll just have to wait and see what the next month brings before anyone could truly say who belongs in the top 25.

This is what happens when all of the conferences start playing well or they all start tossing around in a pool of mediocrity. We’re left nearly directionless.

I’ve got a sneaking suspicion that Purdue doesn’t belong in there, but they are 5-0, so…



September 12, 2007

The HLS Totally Non-Homer Top 25 – Week 2: “Don’t Blame Me” Edition

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Somehow our voters couldn’t see it in their hearts to completely wipe Auburn off the face of our Top 25 this week, despite the fact that they lost to a commuter school. Don’t blame me, if I could have cast negative votes in Tommy Tuberville’s direction, I would have. As good as it was to see Michigan (sucks!) lose, I have a special place in my heart for Auburn/Tuberville themed schadenfreude.

Rank Team
1 LSU
2 Southern Cal
3 Oklahoma
4 Florida
5 WVU
6 Texas
7 UCLA
8 Cal
9 Rutgers
10 Ohio State
11 GaTech
12 Wisconsin
13 VaTech
14 Penn State
15 Boston Freaking College
16 Texas A&M
17 Clemson
18 Tennessee
19 TCU
20 Georgia
21 Arkansas
22 Louisville
23 South Carolina
24 Auburn
25 Nebraska
Also Receiving Votes: Oregon, Oklahoma State

Notes: We have a new #1 this week. I usually laugh at the notion that a college team could beat a pro team, but I’d take LSU against the Cleveland Browns, at least until Quinn starts. And after the show LSU put on last week, we can’t see leaving USC as #1 (despite a tie in votes) considering they stayed home and ate cheeseburgers last week. Oklahoma also managed to tie LSU and USC for votes, but we’re giving LSU the edge because a smack down on VaTech is, at present, more impressive than a smack down on Miami. And we give SoCal the edge over Oklahoma because dropping the Trojans down 2 spots for staying home seems a bit much.

Clearly we must really think Michigan sucks, because the Ducks’ absolute torching of Michigan (sucks!) wasn’t enough to get Oregon to crack the top 10. As I said above, Auburn is, somehow, still hanging on.

And note what happens when you give up 30+ points to Middle Tennessee State, Louisville. You don’t get to pose as a Top-15 team.

Also of note, we didn’t go and instantly throw Penn State into the Top 10 after the ND game. I don’t think we’re all really sold on Morelli.



September 5, 2007

The HLS Totally Non-Homer Top 25 – Week 1

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One, two, three, four, five!

Well, we’ve got 1 full weekend of college football in the books. And 3 of the 4 HLS pollsters have submitted ballots. If the 4th pulls one together, this may change a bit, but I suspect this is a pretty set order.

  1. Southern Cal
  2. WVU
  3. Florida
  4. Texas
  5. LSU
  6. Cal
  7. Oklahoma
  8. UCLA
  9. Georgia
  10. Wisconsin
  11. Ohio State
  12. Penn State
  13. Rutgers
  14. Georgia Tech
  15. Virginia Tech
  16. Louisville
  17. Auburn
  18. Boston Freaking College
  19. TCU
  20. Clemson
  21. Arkansas
  22. Oregon State
  23. Texas A&M
  24. Tennessee
  25. Nebraska

Also receiving votes: Oklahoma State, South Carolina, Boise State, Oregon, Miami, Hawaii, and, somehow, Michigan.

Notes: Yeah, SoCal didn’t actually look like the best team ever, ever, ever, but they didn’t give any reason to knock them either. VaTech, however, didn’t exactly look like they were going to be world beaters against ECU. We were apparently all very impressed with Georgia Tech last week. I wonder why. Nebraska makes an appearance in the poll. Maybe they’re what bounced up when Michigan eventually splattered all over the floor after their free-fall out of our and just about everyone else’s top 25s. Clemson also jumps into our T25. They may be that good, or FSU may be that bad. We’re not sure. What we do know is that they’ve got C.J. Spiller, and nobody else does. Also, none of us voted for ND. Hey, we’re “Her Loyal Sons,” but this is the HLS Totally Non-Homer Poll. Hopefully, come next week, we can feel less guilty about our poll.



August 30, 2007

The HLS Totally Non-Homer Top 25 – Preseason Edition: #1 – Southern Cal

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You had to see it coming, right? I mean, it only makes sense now that people at ESPN or some other MSM locale are comparing the Poodle to Rockne.

Last year, SoCal was merely good. Very good, yes, but still only good. They weren’t quite the same as the 2005 edition of “the greatest team ever, ever, ever,” but they were still damned good. And while the offensive firepower dropped from 49.1 points a game to 30, the defense started to become the beast that the Poodle had envisioned in so many of his dreams. I can just see the little guy dreaming now. Kicking his hind legs out. Must think he’s chasing a squirrel. And this year, returning 10 starters on defense, the talking heads on ESPN may reverse from their previous discussions of “how many will USC score today?” to “How few will USC allow?” They’re going to be awesome on D.

Offense: John David Booty returns, but he finds himself short 2 NFL caliber wide receivers. Of course, they’ve got a stable of 29 28 27 26 highly regarded running backs to take the heat off of him. They’ve also got guys like Sam Baker on the OL ready to provide plenty of protection, just like a Trojan should.

Defense: Speed. There were times last year when the SoCal defense was so fast that I was sure they were playing with an extra man, and now they’re almost all back for another year. Not only will they be fast this year, but they’ll really know where to go. They’ve got one of college football’s best D Lines, probably the best Linebacking Corps in the country, and, lemme see here, ah, yes, probably the best defensive back field in the country too. Good grief.

Special Teams: Pete Carroll (a girl’s name, ha!) once had Reggie Bush returning kicks, and he still only managed a mediocre performance of the art. If there’s one weakness, it’s here. With all the talent on the roster, it should be so, but we get a feeling that the Poodle would rather joke about suicide than spend much time working on the Punt Team.

Facts:

  • Southern Cal has defeated Notre Dame 5 straight years. 4 of those 5 times, the wins were by a margin of 20+ points.
  • 10 returning starters on defense makes for the most returning defensive starters any SoCal team has had in 20 years.
  • SoCal’s loss to UCLA was also the first time in 63 games that the Trojans scored fewer than 20 points.

HLS Top 25 Meta:

  • Highest spot on a HLS Ballot: 1
  • Lowest spot on a HLS Ballot: 3
  • Average ranking on HLS Ballots: 1.5

Why Alex Trebek Loves Them:

Around the Web:

HLS Tracker 10 Forecast Technology Says:

Until October 20th, there’s no reason to think that SoCal will be anything but unbeaten. Nebraska on September 15th? Please. That game last year was not “close.” Callahan played not to lose too badly.

But come October 20th, a new era shall be heralded in. Men will cheer, women will swoon, children will cry with joy in their hearts. Because on October 20th, it all starts to fall apart for the Boys from Troy, and their incessant songs and cheers will be snuffed out forever. Stone.

Editor’s Note: Whew. I can’t believe how painful that was. Fun, but painful. I’m not sure I ever want to do it again. Maybe from now on we’ll just tell you who’s #1-25 and feel no compulsion to explain our intelligent reasoning.

I’d intended to so a synopsis of all 25 teams, but time is short, and the pilots don’t really wait around for me at the gate like they once did, back when I had all that power. All that money… So just click on the tag for this post if you want to see the rest. It may or may not be worth it. I’m going to let it all sink in before I decide. That’s how you have to approach these things. It’s like a fine wine, or a Farrelly Brothers movie.

Now let’s go see some G-D Football!



The HLS Totally Non-Homer Top 25 – Preseason Edition: #2 – Texas

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By the time I got around to writing the top 5 of the HLSTNHT25-PE, I stopped reading as much Phil Steel and started going more by memory because the programs are pretty well known commodities.  But now I’m at #2 and I’m back to paging thru Phil’s work, trying to commit plagiarisms provide you with anything useful because, well, they’re pretty unknown to me.  All I know is that they should be good this year.  Very good.

And how’s that work, exactly?  After all, they did lose to KSU and Texas A&M in back-to-back games to finish the season.  And then they barely got past Iowa in a bowl game.  I didn’t even realize Iowa had earned a bowl game last year!

Maybe it’s just the fact that they have their pick of the most fertile recruiting ground in the world that causes our over-enthusiastic #2 ranking.

Offense:  They get back a healthier and more seasoned Colt McCoy at QB.  They’ve got a young RB that averaged 7.4 yards/carry last year.  That’s not bad.  Not bad at all.  And they get back a lot of experience at receiver while giving up a lot of experience at the OL.

Defense:  After giving up just 18.3 points a game last year, they lose about half their manpower.  Good news: They get back all of their guys at linebacker.  And they’ll be standing behind one of the best DLs in the country (allowed 61.2 rush yds/game).

Special Teams: VaTech gets all the special teams hype, but have they blocked at least 4 punts in each of the last 6 seasons?  Have they?  I dunno.  I don’t have that information.  If you know, feel free to let us know.

Facts:

  • The ‘Horns get back 13 starters this year.
  • Last year’s offense averaged 35.9 points per game.  Pretty good until you realize that’s a 2TD drop off from the previous year.
  • Before Mack Brown took over, Texas had only 3 winning seasons in the previous 7.

HLS Top 25 Meta:

  • Highest spot on a HLS Ballot: 1
  • Lowest spot on a HLS Ballot: 4
  • Average ranking on HLS Ballots: 2.5

Why Alex Trebek Loves Them:

  • The Eyes of Texas is sung after every Texas sporting event, whether it’s swimming, golf, or badminton.

Around the Web:

HLS Tracker 10 Forecast Technology Says:

The Horns find themselves in that delectable position of being in a one-mighty conference that pollsters often forget ain’t no longer so mighty.  As a result, they can go a cream a bunch of non-cons, then beat up on the rather sorry members of their conference, and it all looks pretty good while it’s happening.  They don’t run into Oklahoma until late in the year, so expect a lot of NC talk until at least then.



August 29, 2007

The HLS Totally Non-Homer Top 25 – Preseason Edition: #3 – LSU

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When Ohio State soundly defeated the Irish in their BCS game 2 seasons ago (despite ND being “in it” pretty much until the end), it was pretty clear that Ohio State was going to be a buzz-saw during the 2006 season, and, likely, would be going to the National Championship game.  Last year, when LSU soundly defeated the Irish in a BCS game, it had the same feel.  It just looked like LSU was playing on a different level, and were, possibly, at the time, the best team in the country.  But I’m not so sure they’ll be a buzz-saw this year.  For Les Miles, they’d better be.  As far as LSU fans are concerned, this is the year for Les Miles to win his NC.  But Les loses JaMarcus Russell and Dwayne Bowe, points A & B in the most prolific scoring connection in LSU history.  So while there’s just a boat-load of talent on this roster, Les had better prove that he’s worthy of such lofty heights, and he’s not getting any help from the most important position on the field.

He also wears funny hats.

Offense: No more Mr. #1 Draft Pick at QB.  Now they turn to Senior Matt Flynn, holder of 1 start in 3 years, with a 55% completion rate.  No more Dwayne “He’s Open to Reception” Bowe.  But they do have a ton of speed at talend at receiver.  Oh, and only 3 previous starters on the OL with a new OL Coach.

Defense: They’ve got Glenn Dorsey.  That’s enough to knock most offenses back 50 yards and 2 scores.  They’ve also got a lot of talent at Linebacker.  Not to mention tons of talent, young talent, but talent, in the defensive backfield.

Special Teams: They were, frankly, pretty poor last year.  Miles has a reputation for good special teams, but they were so bad last year that even excellent coaching might only make them mediocre this year.

Facts:

  • The 2006 Tigers were the first LSU squad to beat 2 top 10 teams on the road in the same year.
  • LSU played 4 top 10 teams on the road in 2006.
  • Just 1 of 5 2007 road opponents finished with a winning record in 2006.

HLS Top 25 Facts:

  • Highest spot on a HLS Ballot: 2
  • Lowest spot on a HLS Ballot: 11
  • Average ranking on HLS Ballots: 4.5

Why Alex Trebek Loves Them:

  • The Bengal Tiger is the most common subspecies of tiger in the world. (source)

Around the Web:

HLS Tracker 10 Forecast Technology Says:

If not now, when?  The schedule is set up for a nice run thru the SEC.  The talent is there.  And Miles is in the unenviable position of having to prove that any of his previous success at LSU isn’t just the result of not breaking what Nick Saban left behind for years and years of work in the NFL.   We’ve got a feeling Miles is going to miss Mr. #1 Draft Pick quite a bit.



The HLS Totally Non-Homer Top 25 – Preseason Edition: #4 – West Virginia

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In lieu of the usual wit and insight, I give you the lyrics to “Take Me Home Country Roads.” Cherish them. Sing them loudly. And drunkenly. Always drunkenly.

Almost heaven, west virginia
Blue ridge mountains
Shenandoah river -
Life is old there
Older than the trees
Younger than the mountains
Growin like a breeze

Country roads, take me home
To the place I belong
West virginia, mountain momma
Take me home, country roads

All my memories gathered round her
Miners lady, stranger to blue water
Dark and dusty, painted on the sky
Misty taste of moonshine
Teardrops in my eye

Country roads, take me home
To the place I belong
West virginia, mountain momma
Take me home, country roads

I hear her voice
In the mornin hour she calls me
The radio reminds me of my home far away
And drivin down the road I get a feelin
That I should have been home yesterday, yesterday

Country roads, take me home
To the place I belong
West virginia, mountain momma
Take me home, country roads

Country roads, take me home
To the place I belong
West virginia, mountain momma
Take me home, country roads
Take me home, now country roads
Take me home, now country roads

Offense: Pat White and Steve Slaton. As all the cool kids like to say these days, “‘Nuff Said, hommies.” Or maybe not. See, they lose their amazing Center, Right Guard, and Left Tackle from last year, guys that made some amazingly huge holes in defenses in 2006.

Defense: What defense? I kid! I kid! They actually only gave up a little over 21 points a game last season. They just have a habit of giving up 44 points a game against Louisville. And now this team is pretty darned experienced… at giving up 44 points a game to Louisville.

Special Teams: Should be excellent. Lots of speed to burn, and their kicking specialists, who all did “very well” this year are back to become “excellent.”

Facts:

  • Rich Rodriguez may seem like the hottest ball of burning hydrogen in the galaxy right now, but his first year at West Virginia, he went 3-8.
  • Last year’s pre-season #5 ranking was the highest a West Virginia team had ever been ranked to start the season.
  • The 38.8 points scoring that they averaged in 2006 was the best average West Virginia had enjoyed since their 1989 season in which they went undefeated.

HLS Top 25 Meta:

  • Highest spot on a HLS Ballot: 4
  • Lowest spot on a HLS Ballot: 5
  • Average ranking on HLS Ballots: 4.75

Why Alex Trebek Loves Them:

  • West Virginia is considered the southern most northern state and the northern most southern state (source). This explains so much.

Around the Web:

HLS Tracker 10 Forecast Says:

I can’t remember what I said of Louisville and Rutgers, so I’m shooting from the hip here and guessing they’ll get a Big East championship and a BCS berth. Of course, somewhere along the way they’ll give up 44 points to somebody. Recent trends suggest Louisville.



The HLS Totally Non-Homer Top 25 – Preseason Edition: #5 – Florida

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Despite Urban Meyer’s poaching habits, the Gators aren’t so loaded with talent that they can just “reload” rather than “rebuild.” But if this is a “rebuilding year,” where they get to start somewhere in the top-10, I’ll take it.

The defending National Champs actually have a lot of questions this year. Will the ill-fitting Chris Leak be missed as Timmy! Tebow takes over full-time at QB? Will the almost completely new personnel at defense be able to keep up while the offense learns to find it’s groove? Will that offense continue to look like Frankenstein’s monster merged with the dead body of Pop Warner? How much butt sweat is absorbed by the average pair of jorts in The Swamp during a Florida home game in September?


Timmy! is very excited to be taking over the offense.

Offense: Returning 6 starters, this is supposed to be The Year of the Timmy! But we’ve got a suspicion it’ll be more about Percy “Just Give Him The Damn Ball” Harvin… so long as he can stay healthy and upright. Either way, their OL returns almost intact, so they should have a fair chance to win the LOS battle often enough to let Timmy! and Harvin and Co. to figure it all out.

Defense: Return 2 starters. 2. Two. Ouch. They go from having probably the most verteran LB corps in… ever to the least experience corps in memory. Their DL has one returning starter, and their DBs also have one. That’s it. Good grief. Luckily they play in the SEC, where offensive scheming takes a back seat to cocktail dresses on most game days.

Special Teams: Despite Meyer’s rep for strong ST, expect a very blah performance here. They’ve got a freshman kicker who could only be an improvement over the previous starter, and their return guys are good, but they’ve also got a freshman punter. I’ve got a guy feeling that either the K or P will disappoint this year.

Facts:

  • Urban Meyer has perfected the art of poaching to the point of making citizens of the Ivory Coast blush.
  • During Steve Spurrier’s tenure, the gators won 9+ games for 12 years in a row.
  • Florida returns 8 starters total.

HLS Top 25 Meta:

  • Highest spot on a HLS Ballot: 3
  • Lowest spot on a HLS Ballot: 8
  • Average ranking on HLS Ballots: 5.5

Why Alex Trebek Loves Them:

  • Gatorade was originally created for the University of Florida Gator Football Team. You already know that, but that’s as well as I can do given the fact that there’s nothing fun about Florida. Except for Disney World, or, as I call it, “God’s Country.”

Around the Web:

HLS Tracker 10 Forecast Technology Says:

We hatesssssssssssssss Urban Meyer! We hatessssssss him! We hates him and his ring! But we also haven’t seen any reason to really doubt him on the results front. I don’t think he can win it all, but he may be able to win the SEC if the SEC tears itself apart mediocre bit by mediocre bit. So that might not look too bad in the end.



August 28, 2007

The HLS Totally Non-Homer Top 25 – Preseason Edition: #6 – Michigan

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Before I get into the preview of the Skunkbears, I’d just like to point out a little tidbit I heard on ESPN Radio today provided by Michigan (sucks!) Alum Dana Jacobson. Apparently she had just finished an interview with Llloyd Carr, and they’d discussed the importance of these little “tune-up” games with football luminaries like Appalachian State. In Dana’s words, these games are important because you’d never want to start the season against someone like Notre Dame. It’s funny because from 1985-1990, Michigan (sucks!) started every year against Notre Dame. Weird. Must have been a scheduling mistake.

Anyway, Michigan (sucks!) wont be making that mistake this year. No, they’ll give Chad Henne, Mike Hart, and a relatively new stable of defenders plenty of time to prep for any real games.

Offense: Hart, Henne, Manningham. Oooooh. How will any of them win the Heisman if they’re all stealing eachother’s votes? Henne is a 60% passer. Hart averages 5.2 a rush. Manningham lives behind the safeties. How ever will they be stopped but for Llloyd Carr’s inexplicable desire to hobble an offense?

Defense: Remember how scary they were last year? Not so much this year. Everyone’s got 1 year of tape on Ron English’s tendancies, and they’ve lost 7 starters from last year, notably Alan Branch and LaMarr Woodley and their top 2 tacklers Harris and Burgess. Still, English really impressed us last year, and we expect more excellence this year.

Special Teams: They lose a lot of kickers and All Never Was American Steve Breaston. Expect a lot of blah this year, but at least they have All Name Punter Zoltan Mesko.

Facts:

  • Llloyd Carr is 5-7 in bowl games.
  • Michigan (sucks!) has ended the last 3 seasons with 2 losses.
  • Michigan (sucks!) has lost 4 straight to Ohio State (also sucks!)

HLS Top 25 Meta:

  • Highest spot on a HLS Ballot: 6
  • Lowest spot on a HLS Ballot: 8
  • Average ranking on HLS Ballots: 6.5

Why Alex Trebek Loves Them:

  • “Maize” is a cereal grain that was domesticated in Mesoamerica and then spread thru the American Continents. (source)

Around the Web:

HLS Tracker 10 Forecast Technology Says:

Well, the organized scrimmage against App State probably wont tell us much. Things get slightly more interesting the next week when they meet up against Oregon. But let’s face it, Notre Dame is the game that makes or breaks almost their entire season (shut it, OSU). Newton’s little know 4th law of motion involves the momentum of a Llloyd Carr coached team, and it states that any Llloyd Carr coached team that loses to Notre Dame after being a highly ranked, heavily favored contender in the match will henceforth suck even more than usual. We predict a Michigan loss against ND, so…



August 27, 2007

The HLS Totally Non-Homer Top 25 – Preseason Edition: #7 – Virginia Tech

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Last year, Frank Beamer and the boys went thru the bizzaro-world of the ACC, winning 10 games, beating Miami, and yet still failing to appear in the ACC’s BCS berth. Frankly the ACC wasn’t what it normally is and neither, really, was VaTech. They managed to lose to Georgia Tech and Boston Freaking College in back-to-back weeks. Beamer must have thought he was having a bad dream at that point.

Things look to improve this year as we can’t imagine Boston Freaking College winning in Blacksburg, and the Hokies get back 16 starters this year versus the 9 they had last.

Offense: They’ve got a QB sitting on the wrong side of a 60% completion rate that isn’t named Vick, a pretty experienced OL, and a full stable of running backs. Hrm. Run.

Defense: These guys were awesome last year, allowing just 219 yards per game (best in the NCAA). They’ll be even more awesome this year. They get back 8 starters versus 5, and have one of the best linebacker corps in the country.

Special Teams: Say it with me, now: Beamer Ball. Seriously, have you ever seen so many blocked punts returned for touchdowns on a Thursday night on ESPN in your life?

Facts:

  • Beamer has been HC of the Hokies for 21 years, going 156-82-2.
  • Beamer is only 6 and 8 in bowl games with the Hokies.
  • Still, Beamer accounts for 6 of the Hokies’ 7 total bowl wins ever.

HLS Top 25 Meta:

  • Highest spot on a HLS Ballot: 6
  • Lowest spot on a HLS Ballot: 9
  • Average ranking on HLS Ballots: 7.5

Why Alex Trebek Loves Them:

Around the Web:

HLS Tracker 10 Forecast Technology Says:

It all really hinges on September 8th. The Hokies travel to LSU. If they can win there, then it should be very smooth sailing until November 10 against FSU, and then Miami, and then Virginia. Given the tragedy that VaTech suffered this Spring, I have a feeling the entire community will rally behind the football program as a source of joy. My money is on an ACC championship and a real argument for a National Title game berth. Taken separately, no team on their schedule other than LSU should be able to beat them this season. However, things have a funny way of adding up over the course of a season.



The HLS Totally Non-Homer Top 25 – Preseason Edition: #8 – UCLA

domer.mq

First, let’s just absorb this for a moment.  Because any Irish fan’s thoughts on UCLA should be framed within the context of this…

Good.  Everyone got Europe’s finest work firmly implanted in their consciousness?  Yes?  Ok.  Now that we’re in this place together, we can continue…

The UCLA bruins suffered thru a year that, all else being equal, should have placed head coach Karl Dorrell on the hottest of seats after the 2006 season.  In fact, watching the scene above in a live setting, one could almost feel Karl’s “signature win” turn into “career terminator” over the course of a few minutes.  But then Karl and the gang did the unthinkable, and went on to defeat then #2 Southern Cal in their cross-town rivalry game to end the season, and suddenly Karl’s beginning to feel pretty comfy.

The real reason for optimism for UCLA in 2007 is their defensive coordinator, DeWayne Walker.  He took a fairly miserable defensive group and turned them into an absolute power.  In 2005, before Walker’s tenure, the Bruins gave up 34.2 points a game.  Last year they gave up just 19.9.

Offense:  Return 10 starters.  They also get a brand new offensive coordinator.  What might get interesting is that both of the QBs that played in the starter role last year are back for more this year.  The coaches will need to find a way to pick one guy and stick with him, though that should be helped if both guys can remain healthy thru the year.

Defense:  Also returning 10 starters.  This is a really solid group.  Last year’s defensive line recorded 40 sacks and allowed just 90 yards rushing per game.  This year they lose All Nightmare Team Defensive End, Justin Hickman.

Special Teams: They lose a guy with an absolute monster leg, but then bring in a kid who’s rumored to be even better.  With the speed on the return teams, this group should be a real strength and help level some of the playing field against top competition, so long as their frosh kicker is as good as advertised.

Facts:

  • When UCLA beat Southern Cal last year, it was the end of a 7 game win streak in the series for the Trojans.  Prior to that, UCLA had won the last 8.
  • Last year, UCLA lost to Washington.  Consider that for a moment.
  • The Bruins also managed to lose to FSU in the Emerald Bowl last year.  The score?  27-44.  In a game they led by 4 heading into the 4th.

HLS Top 25 Meta:

  • Highest spot on a HLS Ballot: 2
  • Lowest spot on a HLS Ballot: 15
  • Average ranking on HLS Ballots: 8.5

Why Alex Trebek Loves Them:

  • A “Bruin” is a large, ferocious bear.  The term apparently originated in a story called “Reynard the Fox.”

Around the Web:

HLS Tracker 10 Forecast Technology Says:

Wait and see.  Their early schedule is Stanford, BYU, Utah, and Washington.  If they tear thru that like The Shark thru a Bruin Backfield with less than a minute to go, then look out. Here come the Bruins.  But if they struggle even a little bit, and I mean they win all 4 games but with an average margin of under 10, then I’d look for Karl Dorrell’s head on the chopping block come Christmas.



August 12, 2007

The HLS Totally Non-Homer Top 25 – Preseason Edition: #9 – Wisconsin

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Wisconsin is a bit of a conundrum, and I have a feeling we may have ranked them this high due to the “ranking momentum” they had last year, finishing at #7 in last year’s AP Poll. They certainly had a solid 2006, but when you review the schedule, you realize they played…

  1. Bowling Green
  2. Western Illinois
  3. San Diego St.
  4. Michigan
  5. Indiana
  6. Northwestern
  7. Minnesota
  8. Purdue
  9. Illinois
  10. Penn State
  11. Iowa
  12. Buffalo

That’s, um, how do I put this nicely? Not the most intimidating schedule ever. Not only did they not have to play Ohio State in their Big Televen schedule, but they also found a pretty “down” Iowa and never had to face the Jekyll and Hyde squad from MSU.

Despite including football luminaries like The Citadel on the schedule I expect the 2007 schedule to be a much truer test of the Badgers. They have to play Michigan and Ohio State back-to-back, and their out-of-conference schedule, while not exactly threatening to their record, will at least require the Badgers to compete for a solid 2 and a half quarters of every game (aside from The Citadel, of course).

Offense: They get 9 starters back this year, but the two losses are notable: QB, John Stocco and All-Everything, 1st pick of the 1st round of the Cleveland Browns’ 2007 draft, Joe Thomas. Still, they almost always have an excellent offensive line, and usually the QB in Madison is only asked to manage the game, not win it. They also get back talented PJ Hill at running back.

Defense: Last year’s unit only allowed an excellent 12.1 points/game. Of course, this is one of those stats that become sort of questionable when considering the 2006 schedule. They’ve got themselves just a ton of talent on the D Line, and a lot of speed in the linebacking corps.

Special Teams: Really, really good kicking specialists, but their return teams are sort of pedestrian. Still, this year they expect to have Marcus Randle El back there returning kicks. Hrm, that last name rings a bell.

Facts:

  • The Badgers were 12-1 last season but did not get into a BCS game because the BCS will only take a maximum of 2 teams from any BCS conference. Lesson Learned: Never join a conference.
  • Bret Bielema almost single-handedly exposed the stupidity of the now, thankfully, eliminated rule 3-2-5e. Click the link. If you don’t know this story, you really should.
  • Barry Alvarez, former ND DC during the Holtz years, is now the AD at Wisconsin after steppind down from the Head Football Coach position and hand picking Bielema as his successor.

HLS T25 Meta:

  • Highest spot on a HLS Ballot: 4
  • Lowest spot on a HLS Ballot: 17
  • Average ranking on HLS Ballots: 11

Why Alex Trebek Loves Them:

  • Bret Bielema is the 1st coach in Big Televen and 3rd coach in NCAA history to win 12 games in his first year as a head coach.

Around the Web:

  • I really can’t find any good blogs. Anybody know of one? Help.

HLS Tracker 10 Forecast Technology Says:

Bielema is sort of a crank, but he’s clever, so we like his chances at continued success. The slightly tougher schedule will make for a much better measuring stick of his abilities. Still, since they start with WSU, UNLV, and Citadel, they should have ironed out a lot of wrinkles by the time they run into any potential for competition in the form of Iowa. At any rate, the 2 lines should be very solid, and the defense should provide plenty of buffer for their new QB to learn a few things before everything gets quite a bit tougher toward the end of the season.



August 8, 2007

The HLS Totally Non-Homer Top 25 – Preseason Edition: #10 – Oklahoma

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I feel a special connection with Oklahoma because, according to many Oklahoma fans with whom I’ve spoken, the 1999 Notre Dame/Oklahoma game in which ND won 34-30 actually convinced these fans that Oklahoma would make it “back on top” soon. And, astonishingly, they were right. This is a little weird because, at the time, Oklahoma was ranked in the top 25 and ND was unranked. In fact, until this game, ND had managed to lose 3 straight. And it was a Bob Davie coached squad. Yep. Bob Davie, in his career at ND, beat Bob Stoops and Pete Carroll (a girl’s name! ha!). Can you imagine? Anyway, these Oklahoma fans are apparently able to see beyond simple wins and losses, so good on them, I guess.

Last year’s 2006 squad suffered some really weird circumstances. First QB Rhett Bomar and RG JD Quinn were dismissed from the team. This resulted in a string of headlines like “QB, Quinn Dismissed from Team,” causing my heart to stop about a dozen times. Then they got absolutely screwed by officials in a game against Oregon. And to top it all off, they lost Adrian Peterson for about half the year. And despite that, they still went 11-3. That’s good coaching. And despite now losing Peterson to the NFL, I’d look for these guys to at least perform up to last year’s level.

Offense: Just like last year, they need to find a QB, but at least they knew that back in the spring, rather than just weeks before the season kicks off. To help that situation out, they get all of last year’s receiving corps back and return 6 players with starting experience on the O-Line.

Defense: Just a big ole’ boat load of talent. They do have to to replace 4 starters, but their linbackers are all people that other teams would kill to have, and their secondary is the sort of secondary for which Notre Dame fans have been dreaming for years now.

Special Teams: This is an area in which Stoops always does well. They return pretty much all of the talent they used last year to put together one of the best special teams in the country. Stoops isn’t shy about just finding what works and going with that, be is unusual punting habits or digging thru the closet to find a good punt returner.

Facts:

  • Those weird fans I spoke of earlier were, of course, right. Oklahoma won the NC the very next year, despite not being ranked to begin the 2000 season.
  • Wide Receiver Malcolm Kelly once had 134 yards receiving in a single quarter, against juggernaut Middle Tennessee.
  • Before Bob Stoops showed up, Oklahoma had 5 losing seasons in a row.

HLS Top 25 Meta:

  • Highest spot on a HLS Ballot: 7
  • Lowest spot on a HLS Ballot: 17
  • Average ranking on HLS Ballots: 11

Why Alex Trebek Loves Them:

  • (Since I already used that unbelievable bit about Bob Davie…) Oklahoma’s loss to Southern Cal in 2004 for the National Title was their worst loss since 1997. Score: 55-19.

Around the Web:

HLS Tracker 10 Forecast Technology Says:

Looking at their schedule, I really don’t see anyone getting in their way until Texas in the 6th week of their season. And yeah, that means I see them plowing right thru Miami in the 2nd week and again thru Colorado in week 5. That means they’re set up nicely to make a solid run thru the tougher 2nd half of their schedule because their QB will be matured and they’ll have figured out who the real heir to Peterson will be. Anything fewer than 9 wins would be a disappointment.



August 7, 2007

And So It’s Down To Ten…

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Holy H-E-Double-Hockey-Sticks! We started the HLSTNHT25-PE simply to help us pass the time and come up with some content during the dead months of summer. Suddenly, with a long vacation, tons of work, and an ark’s worth of ND related news, I’m finding myself struggling to keep up and get this finished before kickoff of the GaTech game!

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I’m not sure we’ll ever accomplish anything if we continue on like this.

Anyway, we’ve written up #11-#25 and the “Also Receiving Votes.” Here they are, in order, in case you somehow missed some of it and can’t live until you catch up:

So there’s the first 15 components of our top 25. Take a gander and see if you can figure out which of the remaining 99 D1 programs we’re gonna put up in the coveted HLSTNHT10-PE. Go ahead. Guess. You may be surprised.

Originally, I’d planned to sort of “mail it in” with numbers 11-25, and, I think it’s fair to say I’ve done that quite effectively. I’d also planned to craft impeccable homages to the top 10. But let’s just go ahead and admit that, despite my personal grooming habits, I have a bit of a life, and so will not have the time, so expect more of the same for numbers 1-10. And remember, no matter how poorly I may write up these little synopsis, I still know more about football than Mark May ever will.



The HLS Totally Non-Homer Top 25 – Preseason Edition: #11 – Rutgers

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Who’d have believed it?  A top 25 that includes Rutgers before the season even starts.  (And no.  I don’t remember if they were ranked pre-season last year, and, darnit, I’m not looking it up.)

The Scarlet Knights, I believe, owe their lofty ranking to 2 things, and 2 things only: Runnig Back Ray Rice and Head Coach Greg Schiano.  If either one of these 2 figures so much as develops a bad cough during the season, they’re going to bleed votes.  (This mostly holds true for Ray Rice – who will soon be known as the most under-appreciated and highly ignored Heisman candidate East of the Mississippi.  Ever.)  He’s really, really good.  He’s also really short, but that’s nothing more than an observation lacking any wit.  I just like to point it out because I’m a bit insecure and I like to point out other people’s faults, perceived or otherwise.  Woooo sahhhhhh.

Their 2 loss season last year was impressive, but if you look over their 2006 schedule, it’s hard to keep from laughing.  Actually, if you look at their 2007 schedule, it’s hard to keep from laughing too, so I guess they aren’t really set up for much of a let down this year.  Have you ever heard of Norfolk State?

Offense: They have to replace 32-game-starter Ryan Hart at QB.  Let’s see how good Ray Rice is against 11 guys in the box.  Probably still pretty good, but is he gonna be Reggie Bush good?  Because he needs to be.

Defense: Last year’s squad allowed just 14.3 points per game.  Problem is, they’ve got to find replacements for 5 of those guys.

Special Teams: Coached very well by coaches who understand the tremendous importance of blocked punts – an art that is neglected by far too many other coaches.  They’ve also got very good kickers, including the current holder of the all-time field goals scored.

Facts:

  • Last year’s win in the Texas bowl was the first bowl win in Rutgers’ history.  It took them 137 years to do it.
  • Schiano was offered a reported 2.2 million a year to leave Rutgers for Miami.  A lot of you knew that, but…
  • Did you also know that Rutgers’ offensive coordinator, John McNulty, turned Miami down for their offensive coordinator job?  Who’d have imagined that sort of thing happening even 5 years ago?

HLS T25 Meta:

  • Highest spot on a HLS Ballot: 10
  • Lowest spot on a HLS Ballot: 15
  • Average ranking on HLS Ballots: 12.5

Why Alex Trebek Loves Them:

  • The first American intercollegiate football game was played between Princeton and Rutgers on November 6, 1869.

Around the Web:

HLS Tracker 10 Forecast Says:

They could have a really big year in New Jersey.  The 2007 schedule isn’t exactly murderers row.  You get past West Virginia, and Louisville, and you’re pretty much golden.  I sort of wonder if this is the sort of schedule about which REDACTED has always dreamed.  But if they can’t pass the ball at least a little bit, then they can forget about any BCS games.

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