Notre Dame has been BEATEN by 1 team this year: USC. Yes, yes, we were beaten soundly by them, at home, with a crappy first-time-out-pumped-in-music-effort (that was much better this past Saturday). And yes, yes, that was a sound loss to a USC team that seemed really down coming into that game. But note that that same team took Top 5 Stanford to Triple OT. So maybe USC isn't as down as we all assumed?
But the point stands. We've been beaten by a single team: USC. Notre Dame has defeated Notre Dame twice: when the opponent across the line happened to be USF and UM. Yeah, yeah, it doesn't show up that way in the record books. I get it, those both count as losses. But in 2007 Notre Dame was beaten by EVERYONE, and occassionally stole a game from a team beating itself (UCLA). The next 2 years ND would get beaten by having a hot-and-cold offense and a mediocre defense. This year ND has been beaten in one game, and has given away two others through weird turnovers and bad special teams play.
So what???
Well, there's a difference between 5-3 with 3 losses to teams that beat you and 5-3 with 2 self-inflicted wounds. It's not easy to see at 5-3, but there IS a difference. Because you can see potential in production that doesn't consistently lead to points. You can see the team's ability to move the ball, and slow down the opposition. You can glimpse what we can/will be. When other teams are HANDLING you week in and week out, you can't see that. When all losses are 'the other team is flat out better', it's tough to measure progress. It's just tough to see it. But in a season where we've outplayed every team but 1, I am seeing progress. It's not pretty. It's inconsistent as hell. And the Turnovers/Special Teams stuff has to be fixed, obviously. But even if ND squeaks out those first 2 games by 1 point wins each game, and everything else stays the same, we're having an entirely different conversation. ND would be Top 15, and everyone would be singing praises despite the USC setback. Well, we're 2 plays away from that being the case, and this team isn't all that different from that scenario.
Football Outsiders captures a lot of this dynamic in their rankings based on production rather than just final scores (note that the stats are also adjusted to reflect the 'true' values, but I'll leave that to you guys to read through on their site if desired.) This helps us understand where that progress is happening when things like TOs and STs cloud the view. And right now FO has 5-3 Notre Dame ranked 9th. 9th! 10th in Offense and 10th in Defense. Before you scoff and say 'they have no idea what they're talking about', here's their Top 10:
Bama, BSU, LSU, Oregon, Wisconsin, OK State, OK, Stanford, ND, MSU.
Seems to make some sense, yeah? It may not be a perfect system, but given the results you also can't just toss it aside without considering that it can provide some solid context for measuring progress at ND.
Anyway, the point remains - our offense and defense are producing on drives like other Top 10 teams, and against a fairly rigorous opening slate of games. And it's a very balanced amount of production on Offense and Defense. The challenges have been with areas outside of the 'bulk' of the game, which is what you do when you have the ball and what you do when the other team has the ball. Do you move it down the field? Or no? Does your opponent move it down the field? Or no?
Further, these stats are looking much better year over year. If we look at our rankings in production from 2005 to YTD2011, you'll see a pretty positive trend since 2007.
Improvement has really been consistent, and significant. ND went from 118th and 46th in O and D respectively in 2007 to 10th and 10th thus far this year. And this year's team currently outpeforms ND's first 2 years of the Weis regime where we were ranked 12th and 26th.
And while this doesn't make up for those first 2 losses, it does paint a picture of SOME progress. Not amazing, drastic, unbelievable progress in all phases of the game. But good progress. Now it's up to the team to continue that progress and to clean up those other things so that the progress in production is, more often, translated into points for us, and therefore W's.
Go Irish.
By PAK October 31, 2011 - 8:16 pm
Bear with me. I’m going to get some NFL in our college football.
I agree wholeheartedly. I’m a Detroit resident and a Lions season ticket holder the last two years. Notre Dame this year reminds me an awful lot of the Lions’ first half of the season last year – a whole lot more production, but unable to get out of its own way leading to a somewhat disappointing record. Last year people were sort of hopeful going into the season and when they opened 2-6, everyone said “same old Lions” but were missing the fact that most of the losses were close, and against playoff teams. All of a sudden after a 4 game winning streak to close the season, everyone was on the bandwagon, but those of us who really WATCHED the first half of the season were already there, and knew the pieces were almost all in place. This year, the Lions are one of the hot young teams in the league and a trendy wild card pick.
I see the same thing happening with Notre Dame this year. We’re outperforming our win total. We’re winning the games we should. We’re finding ways to lose games we shouldn’t lose. Most of our fan base is down on things despite some pretty amazing performances.
This team has made remarkable strides from last year. Our defense is better than it was down the stretch last year, 4Q UM aside. The offensive line is playing better than any ND line since I was in school (class of ’00). We have multiple dynamic backs. Our passing offense, when in sync, is almost impossible to defend. I feel sad for the elements of our fan base that can’t or won’t accept it.
I don’t know if next year is “the year” – the schedule will likely be tougher than usual – but the sky is the limit over the next 3 years.
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By Mark October 31, 2011 - 8:42 pm
Football Outsiders is a great site. They bring a lot of fact based statistical analysis to a game (college football) that is rife with passionate bias.
However, FO had ND a 22 point favorite over USC. The reason statistics have not caught hold over football the same way they have with baseball is that there are just too many variables. It’s not one pitcher vs. one batter. ND is a very good team, football outsiders proves that with their statistical breakdown. But those number don’t capture the emotion of 18-22 year old kids. Don’t be surprised to see ND win out based on their projections. Don’t be surprised to see them lose to Maryland and beat Stanford either.
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By The Biscuit October 31, 2011 - 11:10 pm
Agree – they can’t account for the swings in performance that can happen week to week. But season over season, they are very good for tracking whether there’s improvement or not. For any given game, momentum or mistakes or one team just playing like crap for 1 reason or another is possible. It’s a sample size issue, nothing else.
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By canuck75 October 31, 2011 - 9:35 pm
I love these positive views. These stats are what our eyes are telling us too. Any one of 5 ridiculous plays against Mich and USF and those games go the other way. In fact as absurd as it reads, we win both games with 4 turnovers.
Now Stanford does not seem quite so impossible.
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By GB October 31, 2011 - 11:34 pm
You could even make the assertion that ND was one play away from a tie in the “USC game. Although USC outplayed the Irish the whole game, that fumble was a 14 point play.
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By Dave November 1, 2011 - 7:27 pm
I agree with your take on this, but unfortunately it just makes the losses to USF and Michigan hurt that much more. Especially Michigan.
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By The Biscuit November 2, 2011 - 1:12 am
No doubt – it hurts me every time I think of either game. So I shut them out. Until YOU HAVE TO GO AND RUIN IT AAAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRGHHGHGHGHGHH!
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By kreyfish34 November 2, 2011 - 9:09 am
1. USC is a better team than I thought they were. Watching them against Cal (I think), they looked below average. After watching their Stanford game, I believe I was mistaken.
2. ND is a better team than the rest of the country thinks they are. I try to catch myself when I feel like I’m being a “homer”, but the team that Kelly has on the field can play with anyone in the country…when their heads are on straight.
3. Shooting ourselves in the foot against So.Fla and Michigan tastes even more bitter as the season progresses.
4. Beating Stanford is a real possibility…if the Irish have their heads on straight.
5. And lastly, I love our schedule leading up to the Stanford game. Stay focused and GO IRISH!
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