Long-time, regular readers know of DeepTeaKupp, our resident Michigan fan. He pops up now and then to troll the other regulars and remind me of the unfortunate months we spent working together in Detroit. He's actually just a good guy with horrible taste in college football programs, and he's once again agreed to provide us with a Michigan scouting report. Enjoy?
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HLS nation, thanks once again to Matt, biscuit and the rest of the HLS crew for allowing me the opportunity to provide my genius insights into the ND-UM game. This marks the 5th year that I've been able to do this, and I'm 4-1 straight up to date, so pay attention some of this might actually be worth while.
Based on last week's game, it's kind of tough to get a good feel for this UM team but god help me if it doesn't feel like "morning in Ann Arbor". The RichRod era has ended, and I would feel remiss if I did not take this chance to express some thoughts. Yes, Rich Rod deserved to be fired, but much like many of ND's fans I can't help but still like the guy on some level. Yes, he absolutely was "punching above his weight" as the HC of a top 10 program (in terms of prestige of the job, not results obviously) but so many things both of in his control and not seemed to work against him. On the bad side whether it was questionable recruiting or inability to let someone competent completely run the defense or the horrible decision to let Kevin Grady play, it seemed sometimes like he just couldn't get out of his own way. On the flip side, he was pretty much the only D1 coach to promise Denard a chance to play QB or that he brought in a group of kids (the Pahokee kids) that I will turn Brian Kelly shades of purple rooting for both on the football field and in life and there is a small, small part of me that wonders what would have happened if he had gotten the 4th year. Ultimately what sealed his fate for me was tearing up while playing Josh Groban (and the horrible bowl performance vs Miss State).
So now we enter the Brady Hoke era, a promise of the return to old style UM, complete with fullbacks, tight ends and wasted potential on defense (hopefully not on that one). I like Hoke, he comes from a DL background (IMO, along with QB the most important position in CFB) and so far has shown that he can delegate those areas of the game that are not his strongest to capable, empowered assistants, which was Rich Rod's biggest undoing IMO (last mention of Rich, promise).
Offense:
I think they ran about 8-10 different plays against WMU, kind of hard to get a good read but once again but it seems like as long as Denard is available there will be elements of the old spread and new power looks.
Quaterback: Denard, not much more to say. ND fans know him all too well, I doubt he will repeat his video game like numbers from last year, due to the fact that the O will not be as up tempo and just , like, damn how could you possibly ask someone to do THAT again. If Denard goes out Devin Gardner will come in. I guess the closest comparison I could give to Devin would be Dayne Crist, strong-arm, dangerous enough with his legs to make you sweat on D. Of course, there is no evidence that Devin is the the turnover machine that Dayne is, but we don't really have a big enough sample size to be sure.
Running Backs: UM may actually have a one in Fitzgerald Toussaint. He's battled injuries during his brief time at UM but last week got the start and showed some speed, shiftiness and power in varying degrees. Right now he seems like a poor man's version of a faster Mike Hart, we'll see what he can do against ND's line. Mike Shaw is fast, does not always hit the right hole though, if he gets into space though, he's a threat to go all the way. Vincent Smith seems to be evolving into a 3rd down, 8-10 carries a game type of back. Not a huge big play threat, but a good blocker and pass catcher. Stephen Hopkins is back from suspension, for reasons unknown, and provides the more prototypical power back look. John McColgan is the "make hulk want to smash" type fullback this future O will rely on more heavily.
TEs: Kevin Koger can make the great catch, drop the easy one. He's a decent deep threat for a TE, needs to step up the blocking for ND. Not a lot of depth at TE though, Brandon Moore has not played a lot.
WRs: Stonum is red-shirting (suspended) this year, that loss hurts in the KR and WR positions. In his place, Roy Roundtree and Junior Hemmingway need to be able to stretch the ND D vertically a bit. Neither are true blazers but are both potential All Big Ten 2nd team type of guys, Roundtree the more reliable target Hemmingway the big play guy. Again, not a lot of depth here at WR, some slots (Drew Dileo, Kelvin Grady, Tay Odoms) keep the chains moving and help out at PR and KR.
O-Line: I would put UM's top 6 of Lewan, Barnum, Molk, Omameh, Huyge and Schofield up against any line in the Big 10, but again like many other positions on this roster there does not appear to be a lot of quality depth. It will be interesting to see how the interior line for UM matches up against the hype of ND's supposedly superoir DL.
Defense:
What else can I say, the coaching change in this group alone should be able to change this group from disasterous to maybe adequate this year. One thing I do like about Hoke, he seems to have a pretty high set of standards for this D, even in its current state.
DL: Mike Martin is a beast, potential NFL 1st rounder. Rumor is that he is dinged up a bit, seemed to come off the field a lot against WMU, thing to watch here is how much does he play against ND. If it is less than 75-80% of snaps, I will be worried, not only for this game but the rest of the year. William Campbell was once upon a time a very highly touted recruit who has just not lived up to expectations. Like Vince Vaughn in Rudy, hopefully there is some magic left in his remaining years at UM. Ryan Van Bergen will not fill the stat sheet, but will take on double teams and generally do what is expected of him to keep OL off of the LB's. Craig Roh needs to step up and regain some of his pass rush magic he had as a FR. Jabreel Black has shown flashes, needs to be better against the run. True freshman Frank Clark also showed a litle bit at Rush End last week. Nathan Brink and Will Heininger are both former walk-ons who fill in some depth.
LBs: A worrisome group, as there already seem to be some injuries here. Kenny Demens is the only somewhat surething as a starter here, plays a decent MLB. Brandon Herron was the team's leading scorer last week, hopefully that trend can continue this week. Looks like a much improved player under the new staff. Jake Ryan, looks like an All Big Ten type of player in a year or two, great motor, tenacious. Many other LB's have been hurt, not sure who else will fill out the rotation this week but Brennan Byer (another true FR) may play a bit.
CBs: Suprsisingly a bit of depth here. I don't think one of them is going to lock down Mike Floyd but I expect them to make a few plays here and there. Troy Woolfolk (please stay healthy) and Courtney Avery seem to be starters for now, JT Floyd and Blake Countess the primary backups.
Safety: Before the WMU game, the only way I think SS Jordan Kovacs could have been a more polarizing figure would be if his name were Barack Bush. UM fans seemed pretty evenly divided into love or hate for Jordan. Last week was a true revalation, made some big hits and generally acted as the captain of the DB's, making audibles and checks like I never would have thought possible. I still worry about him in pass coverage but wow, what an improved player he seems to be. Thomas Gordon is the FS, did not see enough of him last week to form an opinion one way or the other. If there is a UM equivalent for LNIII (hyped recruit, adored by the internet fan base, unreal expectations) it is Marvin Robinson. May ultimately be headed to LB but a great athelete in the backfield for now.
Special Teams:
UM needs to improve in a big way this week. KO coverage was horrible, at least 30 yards per return. Will Hagerup is a great punter, unfortunately suspended for the first 4 weeks. Wile did okay in his place, but Hagerup is a weapon. FG's have been an adventure for a while, but I think this week Brendon Gibbons actually hits one. The returners are all the aforementioned slots, the seem average to above average, doubt they break one though.
Predictions:
Please remember that I am 4-1 straight up in these prediction columns, so don't discard this out of hand. 
DRob goes for 130 rushing, 200 passing
Fitz goes for 80 yds on the ground, Shaw for 50.
Floyd goes over 100 in the 1st half, only picks up 20-30 in the second.
UM D gets at least 2 TO's
UM 31 ND 27
Bonus Predicitions:
- UM and ND don't play next year, there may or may not be an actual signed contract for this series. Also UM opens with Bama next year, they may look to soften the schedule a bit. 7-1 odds
- Texas never joins the Big 10, but ND does in the next 3 years. 3-1 odds
- Biscuit and I rent an RV and tour around the country with our families promoting a feeling of goodwill between ND and UM fans. 1000000000000-1 odds.
By trey September 8, 2011 - 10:59 pm
Didnt ND-scUM sign a 10-year deal a few years ago? They agreed to the year off, but if I remember correctly, we have another massively long agreement after that.
On your prediction, if your defense is your weak spot, you’re in a bit of a bind because ND’s offense seems to be theirs. Te’o, LNIII and crew will make like Gandalf against scUM’s silly little read option(You Shall Not PASS!) so you’d better pray the D can keep ND off the board. It was mentioned in the last post by Biz, but if Mich allows ND to score 27 points, you lose. This defense has allowed 5 TDs in their last 5 games, so…that means you get one per game. I like your number for ND 27. scUM scores a TD and gets a few FGs to make a nice round 16.
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By DeepTeaKup September 9, 2011 - 9:23 am
trey, I think it was for 20 http://www.fanblogs.com/michigan/007073.php , but there are some people who seem to think there is nothing actually signed, it is just a verbal agreement.
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By Brad September 9, 2011 - 10:53 am
Even if it was signed, there can always be multiple addendums and clauses that would allow a team to get out for a few years.
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By lifetime subwaydomer September 8, 2011 - 11:12 pm
Hard to believe ND defense giving up that many points. I doubt Michigan’s defense will play that well. If ND scores 21 points we win. Our defense is playing damn good and has been consistently, even with the terrible special teams and turnovers that gave south florida a ton of short fields. No TDs for michigan irish roll 30-9
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By GB September 9, 2011 - 5:00 am
Thanks DeepTeaKupp,
Nice Analysis although I disagree with the score. ND’s D seems to be pretty solid except for the Mike opposite Manti.
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By Brad September 9, 2011 - 6:34 am
On a completely unrelated note, I want to air a grievance. I beleive I have figured out EXACTLY WHY the team played so poorly last week.
IT WAS SQUARELY THE FAULT OF HLS!
But it can be fixed! Through my tedious re-viewing of the game, in depth analysis, hours of studying complex mathematical equations, statistics, and detailed charting of the alignment of the planets, I have determined a single culprit, and that culprit is…..
There was no Friday Roundup!
How we can get excited and booze ourselves into the following gameday drunk with excitement (and probably some Rumplemintz) without the Friday Roundup!
HLS, I beseech you to deliver us the Friday Roundup, and make all right with the world so that we can crush the skunkbears, and all will be right with the world.
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By trey September 9, 2011 - 7:51 am
You know what, now that you mention it, you’re absolutely right. We made sure mq wasnt watching the game, everything was in order, but no roundup and no BEER OF THE WEEK!! Come on guys, first game of the season and you drop the ball!
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By Matt Q. (DMQ) September 9, 2011 - 8:18 am
I’ve been sacrificing Roundup because I’ve been working on some new stuff for HLS. Actual new features. And all the news for quite a while was just conference expansion crap. But I’ll see what I can brew up tonight. Though it’ll be tonight. Sorry.
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By Brad September 9, 2011 - 10:54 am
Victory!
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By trey September 9, 2011 - 12:22 pm
One of these days, Im determined to be the Roundup BOTW.
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By Brad September 9, 2011 - 7:02 am
In relation to the actual post, I have some comments and a question for DTK.
1) You think that UM is going to have 260 total rushing yards on ND’s Defense? I would be completely SHOCKED if that happened. I could see Denard breaking a few big ones and getting 100 or so, maybe more, but I just don’t see UM’s tailbacks being able to manball their way against ND’s front 7 to an effective total over a 100.
2) If UM’s punting teams are a problem, against ND’s punting team it may be like trying to pick out the hottest girl to make out with on the high school flag squad. Nobody wins. The first time we see a punt in this game, it will be like dividing by zero, or crossing the streams in Ghostbusters. No one knows what could happen. The stadium may spontaneously combust from all the suck.
3) You mentioned UM’s interior OL blocking. In line with the last question, I noticed something in watching UM’s game film. Molk has been a badass of a 280 lb. center for his career, but mainly because he was often asked to reach block the guy on the line towards the play side. Essentially, his quickness allowed him to get his ass in gear and get down the line and just get in front of a defender to seal him off (limiting a playside lineman to the backside).
I noticed that last week, with the more emphasized power blocking schemes (playside OL downblocking against the grain and pulling backside guards and tackles to the playside) that Molk is now being asked to take on a guy in front of him or in the A gap and mandhandle him out of the way. I don’t think he seems as good at that, and I think if UM asks him to do that against 330 lb. LNIII, it could destroy the interior of UM’s offensive line blocking schemes. I’d like to know what you think, DTK, and also remind you to keep an eye on that battle.
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By DeepTeaKup September 9, 2011 - 9:42 am
Brad,
1) As strong as ND’s D is perceived to be, UM’s O is also a big strength. I’d go as far to say this is the best OL that ND will face all year. I do think UM will be able to run the ball, more with the spread formations than the power stuff.
2) UM’s KO return is the bigger issue, punt team was okay, not great. I worry more about all KO returns.
3) First thing, if Molk is 280 then I’m 220. Based on the WMU game, it’s pretty hard to say what he’ll be asked to do. I’m gonna guess that he won’t be asked to play LNIII heads up like that.
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By kyndfan September 9, 2011 - 7:26 am
@Brian. A Friday roundup helps, but this week I have a Louisville football game tonight. Not gonna have any trouble boozing myself into tommorrow. Have I mentioned they sell alcohol in the stadium?
As far as deepteakupp’s prediction, unless the Irish make as many mistakes as last week our boys win by two td’s. UM’s d is week and ND’s d is solid.
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By trey September 9, 2011 - 7:54 am
DTK has an Irish Chocolate Fathead
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By kyndfan September 9, 2011 - 8:20 am
They make those?
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By DeepTeaKup September 9, 2011 - 10:03 am
Thank you?
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By Jeremy September 9, 2011 - 9:42 am
I would laugh at your prediction, if we hadn’t ended that way two years and counting…
I put the turnover breaking point for ND at 3. At 2, we still win. At 3 or more, we lose. Total, not margin, unless we somehow manage to have a +2 turnover ratio despite three turnovers.
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By undnut September 9, 2011 - 10:45 am
Since I shun anything Michigan-related except for during this one week of the year, I will make the obviously incorrect assumption that your halfback is a Frenchman with a thin mustache that likes stinky cheeses and Chaucer. He should be easy to tackle. Although I wish Fitzgerald Toussaint’s first name was Croissant.
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By kyndfan September 9, 2011 - 11:28 am
You forgot to mix in ‘nanny nanny boo boo’ and a clever placement of F Michigan. I’m with you, let’s kick that frenchman’s ass!
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By brendan September 9, 2011 - 10:50 am
If I’m not mistaken neither team has ever won three in a row against the other in the modern era. So, ND has to win this game, right?
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By Brad September 9, 2011 - 11:00 am
I believe 1918 was the last time it happened.
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By DeepTeaKup September 9, 2011 - 11:15 am
Holtz won 4 in a row, so there is some precedent there. However, ND has only one 1 in Ann Arbor since Lou left. Also, the favorite has lost 7 of the last 10 but UM has never beaten ND at night. What does it all mean? No idea, think it’ll be a close one, unless ND is ready to quit on Kelly because he yells at them too much.
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By The Biscuit September 9, 2011 - 3:10 pm
Or, unless UM is so outclassed the Skunkbears give up by half. That’s possible. The other way around is not.
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By Erik '04 September 9, 2011 - 11:21 am
“the only way I think SS Jordan Kovacs could have been a more polarizing figure would be if his name were Barack Bush.”
This is a great line.
The UM 31 – ND 27 line is not so great. I go back and forth about what I think will happen. I think both teams will be able to move the ball, and whichever team a) capitalizes on their red zone chances, or b) wins the turnover battle by +2 will win the game. I like our chances in the redzone this week, as I’m sure Brian Kelly is emphasizing it in practice even as we speak. Our D has proved solid in the redzone, but Denard Robinson scares me because he is so unpredictable.
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By tricerapops September 9, 2011 - 1:19 pm
prepare to be 4-2 after this saturday, haha. good report, though it feels as if Roundtree and Hemmingway are 7th year seniors at this point. close game, low scoring – ND wins 21-10.
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By The Biscuit September 9, 2011 - 3:11 pm
21-10=close?
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By trey September 9, 2011 - 7:57 pm
Closer than I predicted…
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By Catch of the Day 9/9 ยป HERRING BONE September 9, 2011 - 1:36 pm
[...] Over at Her Loyal Sons they apparently have a friend from Michigan’s side who broke down their boys. [...]
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By Jeremy September 9, 2011 - 2:21 pm
The last time I remember losing the opening game when we really should have won was BYU in 2004. We made some really stupid mistakes, not as many as last week, but then we were ready for Michigan the next week. I am hoping for the same turnaround this year.
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By DagerOne September 9, 2011 - 6:01 pm
I was a grad student at UofM at the time of that game. As part of a two-week long class being taught in Arizona, I arrived in Phoenix to learn that we’d lost to BYU. I spent the next six days hearing all SORTS of shit from my UM-fan classmates. Thank goodness the Irish made the second half of my trip much, much more enjoyable.
Do it again, Irish.
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By The Biscuit September 9, 2011 - 3:15 pm
“No no, buddy, don’t worry. We’ll wait for you! It’s all good, get your snacks”.
“Later suckah! SKUNKBEARS SUCK! GO IRISH!!!!”
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By tjak September 9, 2011 - 5:15 pm
I have to say DTK, you have got some moxie about you. I mean I cannot imagine going on mgoblue and picking the wolverines apart. It really is a credit to the gang at HLS for being open and accepting of diverse views. I do hope to be able to have one over you, finally.
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By Killer whales September 9, 2011 - 11:49 pm
what a ridiculous prediction. I’m definitely jumping off the nearest bridge if your right! how come even after the last 4 games of last year and the shutting down of a potent USF offense last week ND’s D still gets no credit!!
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By trey September 10, 2011 - 1:10 pm
I think in this game specifically, past history is why.
I kind of chuckled reading the game preview from a Michigan(sucks!) paper that was in the “What we’ve read” section. In their ND Rush D vs scUM Rush O, they talked about how Shoelaceless performed last year, blah, blah blah, hes awesome. They then claimed Michigan won that matchup. Completely NOTHING to say about how we stonewalled a similar runner last week and have been shutting down much better offenses than scUM dating back to last year.
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By DeepTeaKup September 10, 2011 - 2:09 pm
All trash talk aside this should be a good game tonight, very nervous about tonight
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