Looking ahead to the Fall, but staying short of my game-by-game predictions post, I thought I'd take a quick trip through the teams that we play back to back in '10 and '11 and give my overall thoughts on that program's direction year over year. So, Stock's Up, Stock's Down.
Michigan
Stock's Up (kinda). Michigan still sucks, of course, but it's almost impossible to say that the Skunkbears' stock is down vs last year with RR leaving. Yeah, The Great White Hoke may not be flashy on paper, but I think that pretty much anyone with a pulse is an upgrade over RichRod and his Defense-that-Wasn't. Expect an improved D with Coordinator Greg Mattison at the helm, but don't expect anything dominant. The players are still meh. And expect a retraction in offensive production with a new system that doesn't start and end with Shoelaceless just running crazy. Maintain Position.
Michigan State
Stock's Down. Only returning 12 starters (6 on each side), MSU has a decent amount to replace, and the Spartans sputtered towards the end of the season a bit. They got by with a lot of close wins last year (ND's game being the closest) and I don't expect that luck to stick around. With a rough early season (ND, followed by the core of the BigTweleven) I expect MSU to drop a couple early. Sell.
Pitt
Stock's Down. Pitt must have taken the "How to Hire a Coach" class given by Monk Malloy recently, as the Panthers completely screwed the Pooch in their hiring process. Not saying Graham is a terrible Coach, but man it was ugly. Pitt disappointed last year, and with all the turmoil in the Burgh this past year, I don't expect a magical turnaround. Sell.
Purdue
Stock's Flat. There's barely a pulse in this perennial sleeper, and that's not going to change. Even their delusional fans are starting to realize they are super small time football. Bad last year, bad this year. Maintain Position.
USC
Stock's Down. USC's machine of victory is done for. Last year was a down year for the Trogans, and I expect that trend to continue. With fewer and fewer assets on the balance sheet due to a ton of restrictions (e.g. Head Coach who has no idea what he's doing, bowl ban, reduced scholarships coming soon), USC is on a downward trend. Short it.
Navy
Stock's Flat. Navy is a decent-to-good program. They're never going to compete for a MNC, but they're rarely going to fall short of a bowl. And the system is big equalizer. Navy is good for 7-9 wins a year, and a middling bowl. Expect it again. Hold/Accumulate.
BC
Stock's Down. Spaz is like Bill Stewart without the shady Press practices. Good guy, well-liked in the community, not a head coach. Never was, never will be. Until BC makes a change, the Least of the East will continue to be mediocre on their way to poor. Nothing trending up here. Sell.
Stanford
Stock's Flat. Stanford had a banner year last year, and many expect something similar in 2011. I wouldn't expect a season quite as good, but I don't expect a big drop-off either. They keep some of their core leaders (Luck especially) on the field, and the system will be almost identical. Of course losing Harbaugh and his chaw-spitting ways hurts, but I think they hold on another year as a Top 20 team before heading back to anonymity in the CFB world. Hold/Trim Position.
Overall, ND's opponents from last year are on the downward trend. New coaches, turnover, and tough comps from the year prior point to a slightly easier road for the Irish in '11 vs '10. With all of ND's starpower back (except Rudy) and another year of experience in BK's system, I'd say the Irish Stock is pointing way up. BUY.
By Nate June 28, 2011 - 12:15 am
Nice, but let’s not get too rosy. I imagine we’ll have a run like Michigan State did last year. 10-2, with a loss to Stanford and one other team because of injury or just not getting a break. Some of the opponents are slightly down, we’re a bit better, so those close games we lost last year, we’ll be in better position to come out 3 points ahead instead of 3 points behind.
Unfortunately this will put us in line for an ass whipping like MSU got this year as well, but ours will be more high profile because it will be in a BCS game. We’re getting better, but we’re not there yet, and this year we don’t have any BCS Bowl level teams (aside from maybe Stanford) to keep things in check and prevent us from going to a bowl beyond our means. Still, 10-3 is okay with me this season, as long as we don’t get completely pantsed in the bowl game.
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By E-Man June 28, 2011 - 7:00 am
No Jim Cramer?
Even though MSU is replacing half their starters, I’d maintain that they’re a hold over last year, although ND should beat them if the defense carries through.
Pitt is going to be a “what in the hell happened to them?” team. In a bad way.
9-3, with losses to Stanford, USC, and Michigan or Navy. Miss the BCS.
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By The Biscuit June 28, 2011 - 11:40 am
Cramer sucks.
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By E-Man June 28, 2011 - 11:51 am
Love him or think he’s an insufferable blowhard that misses 95% of his picks and has a squemish past, for most people in their 20s-30s, he’s the face of the stock market.
The number two answer is “that bald guy who screams all the time”
Besides, you want to roll out Joe Kern and watch us… all.. fall… zzzzzzzzz
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By kyndfan June 28, 2011 - 7:45 am
We will beat USC and mich. this year. 10-2/ 11-1. Any loss will be a close heartbreaker. The D is for real and BK is know for producing high powered offenses. Year 2 in his system will be a big step forward.
LNIII does not go hunting, because the word hunting infers the probabiity of failure. LNIII goes killing.
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By GB June 28, 2011 - 3:53 pm
To me it seems like this is the year to make it, although most likely not in the championship game. At the end of this year, ND will lose a lot of players and next year will be a rebuilding year.
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By tjak June 28, 2011 - 10:07 pm
Notre Dame 13-0 winning the National Championship game……it could happen.
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By The Biscuit June 28, 2011 - 11:53 pm
so could 5-7
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By E-Man June 29, 2011 - 9:51 am
Agreed. I think Kieth over at NBC had a posting talking about 2006 & 2011 expectations. If the defense doesn’t play like it did for the second half of 2010, the team could have a losing record. Defense was so key to finishing the year strongly last year.
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By Erik '04 June 29, 2011 - 10:04 am
I don’t see any reason the D won’t perform strongly this year, IF we stay healthy. Ethan Johnson and KLM have some freshmen looking to toss off their red shirts and chase after opposing QBs, so they’ll be motivated to stay on the field themselves. We lose Ian Williams but replace him with [insert LNIII joke by Brad or others here]. D-Walls is gone, but we move Blanton from Nickel to the edge again. Brian Smith and Kerry Neal are easily replaceable by the younger Cats. Flemming should be even more improved for his senior year. T’eo will bring the pain to anyone trying to turn up field on the edge. And Harrison Smith showed everyone that he’s actually a safety…who knew! I think our only liabilities are that unproven spot next to Manti and our depth in the secondary. I’m optimistic about our D. The offense on the other hand has question marks all over the place, and will just need to make continues strides in consistency this year. I believe that will happen, but will have to see it on the field. The bodies are there, they just need to gel.
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By Joe Magarac June 29, 2011 - 12:44 pm
Louis Nix III doesn’t breathe. He holds air hostage.
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By The Biscuit June 29, 2011 - 2:03 pm
I fear the 3 and out’s that became very normal last year. Pass on 1st, Incomplete. Pass on 2nd bc missed on 1st, Incomplete. 3rd and 10. Prayer. Punt. We need to avoid those kinds of situations, and mostly we need to avoid letting them become ‘normal’. Hopefully the year of experience for everyone in the system will limit those to an extent
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By tjak June 29, 2011 - 12:25 pm
Sure it could, but it would not be too much fun going through the summer thinking that way.
Also, I thought that when I said “it could happen” that might indicate that I was dreaming about 13-0, not saying it was actually going to happen. I like every other Irish fan, have gotten to a place where we just do not expect 13-0 any more, but Kelly has done enough to at least allow us to dream that it is possible.
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By Nate June 29, 2011 - 3:14 pm
The thing is, we don’t have any real “true test” games. Even if we end up 12-0 at the end of the regular season, we won’t have beaten anyone that tells me we’re ready to go up against the SEC’s best. Stanford is the best team on our schedule, and they’ve lost the coach that made them good. They’ll be good this year, but not as good as last year. Our schedule is solid in the fact that losing to any one team (except maybe Purdue) won’t signal we absolutely suck, but neither does beating anyone, to include Stanford, show we’ve “arrived”.
Personally, I think this year’s goal is to be solid, with 10 wins (let’s face it, it was doable last year if you kick the FG against Tulsa and Mich State’s fake FG doesn’t work) and a Gator Bowl level appearance and win to get to 11-2. I pray that the national media machine looks at us skeptically, because we should be looked at skeptically. I really don’t want to eke out 10-11 wins against a solid but unspectacular schedule, get overhyped like usual, and lose by 20 in a BCS game.
Now, NEXT year (2012), this year’s starter will have had a full year as the starter (we hope) and be back, the skill players minus Floyd will all be back, our young Dlineman will have had a year to mature, Teo will be a senior and leader, so I see things coming together. Sure, we lose KLM and Ethan, but the guys behind them will be better at that point. I worry about the secondary because we have no depth, but I think we’ll be able to compete with Oklahoma, and if we beat them, then THAT is a proven scalp we have to show we belong in the discussion.
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By tjak June 29, 2011 - 4:50 pm
I agree with you for the most part Nate, but going 12-0 with any schedule is amazing. At least that is what the voters think. Look how they respond to Boise going 12-0 with Oregan State and Nevada being their lion games. I still say going 12-0 against our slate is a tough task.
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By Nate June 29, 2011 - 5:10 pm
Won’t let me reply to tjak, so I’m replying to myself in the assumption it will go after his. I agree, 12-0 is a great feat no matter what with any schedule. But without a true test, we’ll get overrated and overmatched, again. The voters aren’t so smart, and the media only cares about how much hype they can generate. This is why the same idiots who before the season say “ND will never be good again” will be singing our praises and trying to get us into a BCS bowl come December, because it’s all about ratings, not good matchups. It suits them fine if we go into a bowl game and get blown out, because they dget to say “see, we told you so” either way.
History has taught me to be pessimistic. As great as it was to beat Miami, they were without a coach in a middling bowl. As great as it was to beat USC, we were one dropped pass away from losing it. Army, okay whatever, but we caught Utah down right after getting blown out by TCU. I’m as glad as anyone that we finished strong, and I think we’ll be better this year, but I refuse to drink the koolaid that says we’ll be deserving of a BCS game, regardless of our record, until we win a game that tells me we deserve it. Since we don’t have a game like that on the schedule, it scares me to think about going to a BCS bowl only to get pantsed again. Now, if we win games not by 2, but by 20, and look superior to every team we play, I’ll revise my opinion. But I need to see it first.
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