As I posted on Twitter earlier this week, Spring Football hope is eternal; Even for Notre Dame. And while I don't mean to crush those hopes, what with all the really positive things being said about kids like Manti Te'o and freshmen, I also thought it would be prudent to take a look at what's subtracted from Notre Dame when Michael Floyd, formerly a captain of the 2011 squad, is removed from the equation. And what I found doesn't make my hope spring much at all.
*Note: I know he got a rush credit. It's such a tiny piece of the puzzle, I just didn't feel like cluttering the sheet.
The numbers are pretty clear:
- In 2010, Floyd's receptions accounted for 31% of the team's passing yards.
- Floyd's receptions accounted for 21% of ND's total offense in 2010.
- In wins, Floyd's receptions accounted for 40.44% of ND's total passing yards.
- Floyd accounted for 21% of ND's points scored in 2010.
- In 4 games, Floyd scored 2 or more TDs in 2010. In 3 games, Floyd scored 1 TD. In 6 games, Floyd scored 0.
- Floyd accounted for 1025 yards receiving and 72 points for an average of 85yds/game available (he was held out of Navy) and 1 TD/game available.
You can divine your own insights from that sheet. It's so frustrating to look at, that I tire of it quickly. It all adds up to about a third of the passing yards and a fifth of the scoring removed from the 2010 offense because of stupidity.
But at least there exist a statistical quirk or two to keep me from getting too bummed out.
- For one, Floyd's share of scoring in games he played: 25% of scoring in the losses and 21% of scoring in wins.
- And for another, Floyd's average scoring is 6pts/game in wins and losses in which he was available to play in 2010.
And what that may mean is that Kelly's offense, particularly the winning one, already knows how to score without Floyd, because they may well need to know how to do it in 2011.
By The Biscuit March 29, 2011 - 1:23 am
Solid Photoshop.
How many Ws become Ls if we take away Floyd? Too many. Like the English.
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By tjak March 29, 2011 - 9:19 am
Actually did we not lose all the games Floyd played when he came back from injury in 2009. He had big numbers in those games, but we lost them all. However on the flipside, he was a key contributor in the 4-0 run at the end of this year.
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By domer_mq March 29, 2011 - 9:36 am
Yeah, I thought about digging around in ’09 too, but with an entirely different coaching staff/scheme, the variables are too heavy to be of much use, I think.
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By tjak March 29, 2011 - 5:38 pm
I hear you.
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By domer_mq March 29, 2011 - 11:06 am
Interestingly, we were 2-2 in games where Floyd scored 2 or more times. It gets me wondering about game-plans and reliance on Floyd. It’s certainly arguable that ND found a sweet spot only after finding ways to get kids like Hughes the ball.
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By TLNDMA March 29, 2011 - 4:43 am
Thanks for brightening up my morning. They have no choice but to overcome this.
When would you guys expect a decision to come down on MF’s fate? The earlier the better for all, I would think.
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By domer_mq March 29, 2011 - 9:23 am
I think the team needs to operate on the assumption that MF is gone for good. Treat any return as a bonus now.
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By Dan March 29, 2011 - 6:42 am
Didn’t we say the same after every WR graduated, left early, etc? Tim Brown left – how’d we replace him? Derrick Mayes? Lake Dawson? How did ND replace the Shark? Rhema, Stovall? I remember the same was said of Golden Tate and what percentage of offensive productivity he was. Someone will have to step up. This time next year perhaps we will be celebrating the great Toma, Riddick, Jones, etc.
Team….team….
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By Jim March 29, 2011 - 8:48 am
This is ridiculous. His loss doesn’t happen in a vacuum. More overall talent on both sides of the ball can easily compensate for his loss. That’s like saying the Irish can’t overcome the loss of Armando Allen because he accounted for x amount of rushing yards. A more efficient offense and higher quality players need to be figured in as well.
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By domer_mq March 29, 2011 - 8:59 am
I don’t think I said that at all. I’m simply investigating what needs to be replaced.
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By The Biscuit March 29, 2011 - 9:26 am
You didn’t say that at all, and it’s very clear.
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By Jim March 29, 2011 - 8:34 pm
No what you did say was this “And what I found doesn’t make my hope spring much at all”. We lost Kyle Rudolph, arguably the best tight end in the country, and others picked up the slack. We have more depth at qb, more players with a year under their belt, more good young players, and a better defense.
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By The Biscuit March 29, 2011 - 11:15 pm
Does losing Floyd make your hope spring? How could you expect losing our best WR, Captain, and biggest offensive producer to make him hopeful?
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By Jim March 31, 2011 - 5:36 am
No, but like I said, losing Kyle Rudolph didn’t seem to effect us much. My whole point in this is that you just can’t subtract Michael Floyd’s output. So, the guy who replaces him will do nothing? Will he do half as much? Will he do 3/4 as much based on better quarterback play, or another year in the new system? Will a better running game open up passing more? You don’t know any of this, so you can’t just subtract his output. That was my point.
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By domer.mq March 31, 2011 - 8:50 am
Jim, the thing about losing Rudolph was we had Eiffert, who, while young, is arguably as naturally gifted.
Who’s as naturally gifted and of the same “type” in the WR ranks at ND as Floyd?
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By Jim March 31, 2011 - 11:46 am
I understand that, but you say this is what we lose with Floyd, and my only point is someone is going to take his place. I could have said when Dayne Crist was lost, we lose our total touchdown passing output for the year. True? Yes. Was it lost? No. Rees stepped in, and while you can argue about his performance, we got very similar numbers out of him. Difference was improved defense and rushing when it counted in games like USC. So what was lost? Once again, my whole point in this is that we don’t lose those numbers, someone will take his place. Can you honestly make the argument that all that output is lost. The person who takes Floyd’s place will make no catches or touchdowns? A person could perform worse, as good or better, and there are a lot of variables to that. Whatever the case, we don’t LOSE all of that production.
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By Jim March 31, 2011 - 11:51 am
Was there any reason to believe Golden Tate, would perform as good or better than Floyd? Did he? Theo Riddick is in exactly the same situation. Kelly has been saying how amazing Cierre Wood is. What if he starts banging out 100 yard games? Defense moves up to stop the run, opens passing up, you just don’t know. I don’t either, but to assume all that production is just gone, that no one will fill any of that void, is a little too pessimistic for my liking.
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By domer.mq March 31, 2011 - 11:51 am
Jim, I understand your point, but I’m not a moron. I didn’t write this piece with the expectation that without Floyd, Kelly would play an offense with only 10 players. I’m spelling out what needs to be replaced.
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By The Biscuit March 31, 2011 - 2:56 pm
Plus, you guys are talking about all the extra production we’ll get out of Riddick and Wood. But what if we got that same production out of those guys and STILL had Floyd? C’mon, this is absurd. What we lose with Floyd is what we lose with Floyd. What we gain back from another player isn’t DMQ’s point, and it’s impossible to quantify. You guys are picking at a scab that doesn’t exist. DMQ pointed out what’s going to be gone. It doesn’t make him happy – dont know why it would make anyone happy. It doesn’t mean it happens and there’s no replacing it. But if you had to bet on who would best replace Floyd – Floyd himself or someone else – I’m sure you’d bet on Floyd. Meaning there will likely be a decrease in production vs if Floyd was there. Sheesh.
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By Jim April 1, 2011 - 8:32 am
domer, I apologize if I took things too literally. Biscuit, you couldn’t be more wrong. I’m not picking at a scab at all, I’m trying to avoid doom and gloom over the loss of Floyd. There is no arguing he is a great receiver, but you said it yourself, you can’t quatify his loss any more than you can quantify gains that might be made elseware. Two quarterbacks with another year in the system, an entire team with another year in the conditioning program, what sounds like an animal off season by Cierre Wood, more experience on both sides of the ball, Riddick running better routes, all things that could more than offset the loss of ONE player. That’s all I was trying to say. Ridiculous was a poor choice of words on my part.
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By Danny March 29, 2011 - 9:01 am
The importance of floyd is that he takes an extra defender often. There is a fear factor that he brings to the opposing D. We have plenty of guys that can pick up the slack somewhat from a skill stand point. The head coach makes a lot of money figuring out how to score more points than the other team, he’ll just have to adjust. We have talented players that we will have to rely on more. Someone will step up, they always do. If Floyd comes back then it won’t matter. No need to sweat it. Kelly has a rep of coaching up players, let’s hope he does. To be honest I am more worried about QB play.
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By Gerry March 29, 2011 - 10:14 am
The idea of Floyd not being part of the team for 2011 is crippling, regardless of who we haave waiting in the wings. Don’t lose sight of the opportunity for him to come back, though. Nobody has said that he is definitively out for the Fall. His hearing isn’t until May…so let’s not jump off the preverbial cliff just yet.
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By paul nolan March 29, 2011 - 10:29 am
If Michael Floyd is off the team for good (which I don’t think is reasonable), we will miss him and it could sabotage what promises to be a winning season. He should be suspended for several games but off the team is too severe.
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By Brian March 29, 2011 - 10:42 am
We have too much talent offensively on this team. I do not think Floyd will be missed. He wasn’t much when Golden Tate was around and he drops too many clutch passes as well. I agree he has accounted for a high percentage of the offense but he should have since he was the featured receiver. Someone else will step up.
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By CJW March 29, 2011 - 10:46 am
They need to move on this now as the current semester is 1/2 over.
Look this is college and it is a revolving door. Floyd is awesome and his return I thought greatly enhanced BCS chances….but
Like others have said the team needs to move on and whatever they get at this point is a bonus. We have other talented recievers and more importantly the QB play should be much better overall this year. I am kind of happy that Riddick is not going back to back field as I believe he will be biggest threat in the slot and runnign lepricat.
I hope the university considers all things and I believe they will. MF made a huge comitment to them when he bypassed a likely 2-3rd pick and millions of dollars now.
His drinking is a problem more for him I fear than for ND. I would recommend they suspend him from school now….require him to undergo rehab and then allow him to return for fall semester with a 1 or 2 game suspension. That to me seems fair as he could still just walk and likely be allowed in april draft as a special case.
I say help this young man out and try to get him thinking differently as a drinking problem is not going to help him have a long and product pro career.
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By Erik '04 March 29, 2011 - 10:51 am
IF it ends up that he is gone for the season, then it is a huge benefit that this happened prior to Spring Ball. If it happened over the summer, than he would have been sucking up reps from younger guys this Spring that would have gone unused toward prepping for the fall.
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By Brian March 29, 2011 - 11:01 am
Good point Erik ’04. Spring is when you find out who is going to make the next step and this is a chance for someone to make their’s! GO IRISH! BCS bound baby! With or without Floyd!
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By SDI March 29, 2011 - 11:29 am
Good post DMQ. Huge loss. The scary thing for me is that all of the candidates to take up the slack are either career underachievers or young guys with unproven potential. And apparently so far at spring practice, the other receivers have so far been less than stellar according to at least two different observers. I’m hoping that some combination of improved running game, Tyler Eiffert, and Theo Ridtubesteak can get it done until some of the younger receivers mature.
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By Whiskeyjack March 29, 2011 - 11:33 am
I don’t think Floyd’s 2010 production is a good way to measure what we’ll have to replace.
Last season, he was a vital crutch for two rookie QBs, which is partly why he accounted for such a large % of total production.
Next season, he’d simply be the most dangerous weapon among many. I don’t think Kelly will have trouble replacing his production.
Floyd gives us a schematic advantage because he frequently demands double teams, and he’s a serious red zone threat. Those intangibles won’t be easily replaced.
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By dfjlaw March 29, 2011 - 11:57 am
Crucial. We have nobody to replace him.
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By Avon Domer March 29, 2011 - 12:10 pm
I think Floyd will be off the team and he should be. What he did was beyond belief, and this is not his first episode with alcohol. If he’s allowed to skate, where does it all end with him? One of the reasons I love Notre Dame so much is because it has high standards. Let’s keep those high standards and remain ND. I wish Michael all the best in his future endeavors, but he’s worn out his welcome as a student-athlete at Notre Dame.
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By rocket89 March 29, 2011 - 1:10 pm
Beyond belief huh?
So we should kick him out for the absolute gall he showed huh? Should we wipe his name from the record books too? Remove any pictures of his likeness and act like he never attended Notre Dame?
There’s no room to let him make up for his mistake? Perhaps miss some games and then come back and graduate like he has said is important to him?
Have we written Floyd off as a dark stain to the University and there’s no hope for recovery or reconciliation? Sounds pretty silly to me.
What if Floyd is indeed suspended and never comes back to Notre Dame or plays football again, then goes on to a successful NFL career, earns millions, starts a charity and later becomes a well admired businessman and philanthropist after his playing days are over?
With a wave of a hand we shall already dismiss those achievements years before they happened! The important thing to remember is that we kicked Floyd out of Our Lady and WE REALLY SHOWED HIM!
Gimme a break……
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By Whiskeyjack March 29, 2011 - 1:23 pm
He’s been stripped of his captaincy, he’ll miss all of spring ball, and he’s virtually guaranteed to miss at least a few games next fall.
He’ll have to deal with any legal ramifications on his own, regardless of ResLife.
He took a good first step with his public statement. Let’s say he goes on to publicly confront his alcohol “problem” (and I think he’ll have to spin it that way, even if he’s no more alcoholic than the average Domer, to appease the Ministry of Truth and Justice), and does a ton of community service. Why would it tarnish the Golden Dome to allow him to come back and compete after all that? That’s hardly allowing him to “skate”.
Floyd cast the University in a very favorable light when he passed on the draft to come back for his 4th year; he also set a wonderful example for other student athletes. ND owes him a chance to see the field again if he jumps through the right hoops.
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By michael March 29, 2011 - 1:01 pm
let him deal with Res Life and leave him on the team…
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By rocket89 March 29, 2011 - 1:11 pm
We need to diversify our bonds. It’s not like we’re Purdue and without playmakers here.
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By Indy March 29, 2011 - 3:41 pm
I feel bad for michael Floyd, partly because I think he is going to see the team find success without him and partly because I can’t imagine the strength it would take for a young man to face these painful consequences without becoming bitter. the team will be fine. I hope mike keeps his head up and is able to grow from this. Easier said than done, but growing up is just not an easy thing to do.
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By JH March 29, 2011 - 6:33 pm
Good analysis, mq.
I hope we see Floyd back in our uniform again, but we may not. I don’t feel too end-of-the-worldish, mainly due to a feeling that the Kelly-led team will be better able to adapt to a loss than with those of previous coaches. When we lost starting quarterbacks with Davie and Ty coaching, the offense pretty much collapsed, but last year, Kelly held it together pretty well. I don’t think we will be as good without Floyd (obviously) but I trust Kelly to come up with a Plan B.
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By Jim March 29, 2011 - 10:16 pm
You say Floyd being kicked off the team for good is too severe, look, I will miss him and had big hopes with him coming back, here are the facts, he’s gotten in trouble every year before the season, that’s 3 times, no ND player has ever gotten away with that and I hate to say it, but neither should he or else we become Florida or Alabama USC. I’ll keep my Irish rules the way they are and like the one man said, every year we worry, but someone steps up and one will this year. Have faith me
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By Chris March 29, 2011 - 10:42 pm
I think we need to relax, mike is a good guy, yeah he screwed up a couple times, but weren’t those first two alcohol offenses both misdemeanors? I see the fight he got into as a more serious offense. Now the drunk driving, that’s bad. but didn’t brady quinn get caught driving drunk on the sidewalk? and what about ragone, did he test positive for bud? Let mike get some hefty community service (God knows south bend needs it) get him a 1 game suspension (i want him at michigan{sucks}
and have him attend AA meetings all season/year long.
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By The Biscuit March 29, 2011 - 11:16 pm
Quinn did not have a DUI.
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By theIrishLion10 March 30, 2011 - 12:09 am
Also, Floyd did not get into trouble for a fight. He got caught drinking the first (second?) because police responded to a fight at the party he was at. He was not the one fighting, at least I didn’t gather that he was involved with the fight from the stories I read, just the drinking part
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By domer.mq March 30, 2011 - 8:26 am
The comments under this post that advocate going easy on Floyd make for interesting reading. The foundations for all of the reasoning are shaky at best.
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By rocket89 March 30, 2011 - 1:44 pm
I’m resigned to the fact that Floyd is gone and won’t play again for Notre Dame.
I don’t really know what going easy on Floyd would constitute in this case. Clearly if we’re following the ND rules as strictly as they can be applied, he’s gone for 2011.
Does a 4 or 5 game suspension mean going easy on him, though? Especially when the vast majority of the other schools wouldn’t suspend him that long?
I mean Floyd messed up and he’ll have to pay the price, but I can’t in good conscience come out and act like what he did was sooooo terrible and such a black eye for the university. Of course ND has high standards and we should expect him to be gone, but that doesn’t mean I’m going to be like, “YEAH KICK HIM OUT!! WHAT HE’S DONE IS UNBELIEVABLE!! THIS IS NOT HOW NOTRE DAME STUDENTS ACT!! WE WON’T TURN INTO FLORIDA!! HAHAHA!! WE HAVE HIGH STANDARDS! WE HAVE HIGH STANDARDS!! WE HAVE HIGH STANDARDS!!
Anyone who openly smiles and experiences joy when/if Floyd is suspended for the fall because it upholds ND’s standards can STFU as far as I’m concerned. I feel bad for Floyd and it’s just too cruel to be frothing at the mouth actively wanting him to be kicked out.
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By stewvee March 30, 2011 - 2:41 pm
Exactly.
Mike’s a great player and he adds a lot to our offense any way you look at it. I’d miss seeing him play his final year for The Lady and the team sure as hell would miss him too.
This is a personal problem he’ll have to deal with. It’s serious of course. But he should be allowed to play ball in the fall.
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By The Biscuit March 30, 2011 - 3:16 pm
Anyone who openly smiles about this and experiences joy about any part of it either hates Floyd, hates ND or both.
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By Chris March 30, 2011 - 3:08 pm
The Biscuit, I never said quinn got the dooeee, but I heard from several people that he did get pulled over on campus while driving on the sidewalk, presumably drunk. sorry if I sound arrogant or trying to be a smart ass, I’m not doing it on purpose. I couldn’t find anything online about it, so take it with a grain of salt. I live in south bend in case anyone was wondering. About floyd though, I think a 3-4 thousand dollar fine/court costs, about 200 hrs of community service, and the school should require him to attend AA meetings the rest of his time there is enough punishment, with a 1 or 2 game suspension, preferably one. I know about the 2nd offense deal with du lac, but I believe the school should cut him a break, especially since he does value his education.
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By The Biscuit March 30, 2011 - 3:20 pm
I dont think you sound arrogant or like a smart ass. I don’t think you have great information, but that’s no crime.
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By domer.mq March 30, 2011 - 3:57 pm
We’re very aware of the rumor. It ran rampant across the internet for a time. It’s just a rumor. There was never anything to it.
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By Chris March 30, 2011 - 5:03 pm
Word. off topic but, has ragone only had one offense? and does du lac handle drug offenses like alcohol? Can we take what we’ve seen happen with other players (i.e. yeatman) and apply it to this situation?
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