The Biggest Match-up to Watch in the Sun Bowl

There have been some excellent preview pieces posted around the internet to give us all a good idea of what's to come in the 2010 Sun Bowl when Notre Dame and Miami face off for the first time in 20 years. If you've been perusing the ND-centric internet for a while, you're very familiar with the knowledgeable "omahadomer" over at NDN, and he did a great job setting up the scene for tomorrow. Of course, Clashmore Mike went encyclopedic in their "keys to an Irish win" piece for the bowl. And Keith over at Inside the Irish pulled together an excellent 12-pack of barroom trivia to help you look supah smaht among your bowl-viewing peers. There are quite a few other really strong pieces out there, but this paragraph is already getting pretty long, and I just wanted to say that, among all that I've read in looking forward to the Sun Bowl, one thing keeps eating at me - one match-up in particular, and I believe the result of that match-up tomorrow will spell victory or defeat for the Irish. And that match-up is between Trevor Robinson and whatever task he's assigned on any given play.

As omahadomer mentions in his preview, the Miami defense is built for speed and disruption. And one of the most disruptive forces for the Miami Hurricanes is defensive lineman Allen Bailey, who will be matched-up, often, with Notre Dame's right tackle, Taylor Dever. Dever will likely need some help in managing Bailey, and no doubt the Irish staff have game-planned to do so, likely by bringing a TE over to Dever's side or aligning a H-back or tailback to assist Dever if necessary. But that tactic will have one very interesting ramification: It'll often result in Notre Dame running their formations such that the strong side of the formation is to the right; that's Trevor Robinson's side. And if the right side of the offensive formation is the strong side, then that side is also Miami linebacker Sean Spence's side. And that's my concern.

As noted, the Irish staff can do things to sort of help out Taylor Dever, particularly in passing situations, but it's much more difficult to help out an offensive guard like Trevor Robinson, and this season, Robinson has shown he needs help. One game obviously doesn't define a season (see also, Notre Dame/Navy 2010), but here's a video of every run play by Notre Dame against Utah that I think is fairly illustrative of Robinson's effectiveness in 2010.

When I watch this video, and really most of Trevor's play this season, I've seen a lot of evidence to make me think the kid is injured. There's a hesitance in his play - or, more to the point, a total lack of aggression - that would shock most anyone who watched this kid apply force to the opposition in the previous 2 years. Something's wrong here. In the video above, I count only 1 play in which Robinson completes his task at a satisfactory level of play.

In a whole lot of the previews written about this bowl game, and in quite a bit of the commentary by Notre Dame coaches leading up to this game, there's been a lot of talk about the enhanced role Irish tailback Robert Hughes will play now that he's playing with a physical style that he's lacked over the last couple of years. And that's all well and good. It's thrilling, really, but Notre Dame will be hard pressed to establish a power running game against a speedy defense like the Hurricanes if they can't scheme the runs to the power side of the formation. While the Irish must find ways to support Dever against Bailey, the Irish must be able to count on Robinson to execute on his assignments, and often the assignments will entail making plays against the lightning-quick, defensive MVP Sean Spence. If the Irish find they can't count on Robinson to support plays to his side, they'll have to protect him too, by running away from him (and the strong side). And with Miami's speed, that'll leave the Irish open to a lot of gutting by plays made by Hurricanes catching up to Irish ball carriers from the backside of the play.

I certainly don't mean to pick on Trevor. As many of you know, I had extremely high expectations for the kid as we headed into the 2010 season. And, assuming his play has been limited due to injury this season, I see no reason not to expect great things from him in 2011. But if the expectation of Irish fans is that Notre Dame will neutralize Miami's defensive speed by running directly at the Hurricanes, then we're all expecting Robinson to have a big day; the first big day of his entire season.