Sun Bowl Prediction

PAIN!!!!!!!!!!!

Hehe, I kid. That would be a lame opening...

Yoda?

"Suffering?"

Ah yes, my bad: SUFFERING!

Still lame. Whatever.

Snoop, what do you think?

"A shizit-ton of weed, nephew."

A SHIZIT TON OF WEED!!!!

Nah...

Billy Madison?

"Conditioner is bettah!"

Okay, enough of that. This is just getting weird. Fast.

Anyway...Mike over at Eye of the Hurricane (great blog name, btw, no?) was kind enough to invite us to submit a blurb about the Sun Bowl and to make our prediction. Very nice of him, especially since it gave me a reason to actually write this post. We may or may not do a more comprehensive preview, but at least now I have a chance to go on the record. Head on over to The Eye to see our prediction alongside a host of others in the blogosphere.

Notre Dame-Miami is about as interesting a matchup as you'll find this year. Lapsed Catholics vs Lapsed Convicts. Brand New Coach vs Coachless. North vs South. Cold vs Warm. And on and on...

It's also an interesting matchup because of the seemingly well-matched teams on the field. #73 Scoring Offense in ND vs. #53 in Miami. (Meh Offenses) #29 Scoring Defense in ND vs. #21 in Miami. (Decent Defense) Sagarin's #27 Team in ND vs. vs #33 in Miami. (Decent teams) ND at 7-5 against the 23rd most difficult schedule in the country vs Miami at 7-5 vs the 32nd. (Decent teams that don't play patsies all season long)

This game will be close, and it will be close because the teams match up well. ND, in the last 1/3rd of the season, has been consistent, disciplined, and has played a power running game with a stout defense. Miami has shown flashes of competence, brilliance even, but has also shot themselves in the foot time and again. Notre Dame ranks 21s in Penalties. Miami ranks 112th. (!) Miami hasn't seen a passing offense they can't stop. ND has finally learned how to run, when forced to do so.

ND probably doesn't have as much upside as The U in terms of personnel this year. Miami, from the top of the roster to bottom, can pretty much out-athlete ND. But ND is, by far, the more disciplined team. The team is peaking at the right time with quality wins over Utah and USC to close out the season. Miami finished up with 2 losses to Va Tech and USF, pushing Coach Randy Shannon out the door.

And therein lies the key to this game.

ND is on the upswing, and has shown improvement and consistency as the season has progressed. Miami has struggled late, and even when playing well have struggled mightily with penalties and big mistakes that materially impact the game. ND has a Head Coach to guide them in this game, to continue that progress they demonstrated later in the year. Miami needs a Head Coach to help fix all of the consistency issues that have cost them games this year. They don't have that (nor do they have a clear starting QB), which swings this game in ND's favor.

If Miami comes out and plays a new brand of quality, largely mistake free football, ND is in trouble. But without a Head Coach to right and then guide the ship, this is extremly unlikely. Those mistakes will occur, and they will cost the 'Canes.

ND Wins, 23-20

GO IRISH!