Note: This is a series in evolution where we take a look at the opposing players who made the biggest impact in the game last year and have since left the opponent’s roster to be replaced by new blood found themselves being replaced for whatever reason. Our first post on Purdue is available here. It wont look quite like this one. And the next one will probably not look like this. Stick with me. It's worth it.
The 2009 Michigan/Notre Dame game presented itself, right through completion, as a game between two potentially serious contenders on the national scene. And the 72 total points, 2 100-yard rushers, and a 300 yard passing game by a QB seemed to lend credence to that impression. Sadly, it proved to be only an epic slap-fight between 2 peons, as ND would follow up this loss with 5 more, and Michigan would follow up this win with only 3 more victories on the season.
QB: The Replaced (PROGNOSTICATION ALERT): Tate Forcier - 23/33 for 240 yards and 2 TDs passing, plus 13 rushes for 70 yards and this, perhaps the most crushing play of the game...
To be clear, Michigan had to score again to actually win the game, but this was the play, for fans, at least, that made one think that perhaps bored, mischievous deities were messing with the results of this game. It may well have been the play that bought Forcier a few credits when things got rough later in the season and Tate could feel this fella breathing down his neck...
QB: The Replacement: Denard Robinson - "The Shoelaceless One." Possibly the most hyped QB in the Big Ten since that guy at OSU, Denard was already getting reps at the start of the season, and early returns did nothing to dispell the hype. Here, for example, was his first play in college football...
He'd go on to follow that up with 2009 stats of 14 of 31 passing for 188 yards and 69 rushing attempts for 351 yards (5.1 ypc). Not exacly awe-inspiring stuff down the stretch, and while there's been a ton of talk about the fact that Denard doesn't tie his shoes, we've yet to see the montage-heavy documentary on why, exactly, Denard can't tie his shoes. One particular stat from 2009 does jump out: 2 TD passes to 4 INTs. Ouch. But word is that Denard has learned to pass the ball this spring. And that, coupled with the trials and tribulations of Tate Forcier through the off-season, leads us to predict that Denard will be your starting opposition quarterback for 2010. Denard made 4 rushing attempts for 21 yards against the Irish in 2009.
RB: The Replaced: Brandon Minor - Rushing for 106 yards in 16 attempts, unfortunately Brandon served as a foretelling of rushing defense misery for the Irish throughout 2009. The senior only had 1 other 100+ yard game (Purdue) and finished 2009 with just 599 rushing yards.
RB: The Replacement: Vincent Smith - With 8 appearances in 2009, Smith is apparently the most experienced tailback on the Wolverine roster. Smith tore his ACL in the Ohio State game last year, but he's back on the field now, and looks to build upon his sophomore year of 46 carriers and 276 yards. And he'd better, because by the looks of various blogs and MSM outlets, all-name candidate and red-shirt freshman Fitzgerald Toussaint is already breathing down his neck UPDATE: Just read another blog, and Toussaint isn't even mentioned among the other backs for Michigan's latest scrimmage, so who's to say, really?
WR: The Replaced: Greg Mathews - In a recent interview, ND's Darrin Walls talks about 2 plays from 2009 where he really wishes he'd done something differently. One of those plays happened as Walls was facing Mathews on the field, and Forcier completed a pass to Mathews to seal a win for Michigan Mathews was a real annoyance to the Irish defense all day long, compiling 68 yards on 5 receptions. And that one big TD to nail down the win against the Irish? That was Mathews' only TD catch all year.
DB: The Replace: Troy Woolfolk - Heading into this fall as the most experienced member of the Michigan defensive backfield with 46 tackles and 12 starts, Troy's foot and leg had a disagreement about direction last week, taking Troy out for the season. Against the Irish, Troy had a team-high five tackles while not really stopping anybody (hey, don't laugh, neither did the Irish).
DB: The Replacement (A TOTAL GUESS): James Rogers - Because they don't really have anyone left. At least this dude's a senior.
By SDI August 23, 2010 - 3:56 pm
Thanks for posting that Michigan clip. Before seeing that again, I had started to believe that Hayseed could shake off last season and be reborn anew this year ready to display the loads of athleticism that we’ve been hearing about for years. After watching his “recovery” speed against Forcier, I fear for what will happen to him against Denard Robinson this year.
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By domer_mq August 23, 2010 - 4:09 pm
That was bad on Hayseed’s part, but the LB (Smith?) was the guy who totally missed. He didn’t just miss the tackle, he failed completely to turn the runner.
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By SDI August 23, 2010 - 4:14 pm
I agree. It was Fleming I believe. But everyone gets juked from time to time, even good defenders, that’s why gang tackling, pursuit drills, etc. are necessary. But Hayseeds recognition of that play, change or direction and pursuit were so pathetic i’m not sure what to think. Forcier is a good athlete, but he’s not blazing fast. That was bad.
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By The Biscuit August 23, 2010 - 5:09 pm
i hate hate hate hate hate that play. F.
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By SDI August 23, 2010 - 6:19 pm
me too. for every failed season, a few cringe inducing plays burn themselves into your memory to form a painful slideshow perfect for torturing the obsessive sports fan. this play, a couple of those passes from Barkley to his tight end, the Duval fall, JC fumbling at the goal line against Navy.
Can’t wait for the season to start to help ease the pain.
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By rocket89 August 23, 2010 - 6:15 pm
Here’s how I see it. Robinson probably starts this year against us. And for UM to win, he’ll have to put up bigger stats than Forcier did last year. For all the fawning over Forcier’s game against us last year, he really didn’t play THAT amazing. We gave up a TD on a kickoff and fumbled deep in our own end…he got a ton of help. 240 passing yards, pretty good, but just about every other QB against ND did more damage last year. And 70 rushing yards, again, pretty decent, but given that 40 of that were on one play it wasn’t like Forcier was ripping it up all day long.
And will UM get over 100 yards from a running back this year too?
Denard is dangerous on the ground, but he’s going to have to run for 150+ to beat ND. And it’s kind of funny that UM fans are saying he can throw now…ummm yeah I’ll beleive that when I see it. I know he was only a freshman last year, but you don’t go from a terrible passer to a good one in one off-season.
Plus, I’m positive that we’ll be scoring the most points we’ve ever scored (38) against UM this year. With a lack of experienced running backs and a QB who threw like a 10-year old last year, I’m not that worried. If they drop 40 on UConn, okay I’ll start worrying, but Rich Rod still doesn’t have Pat White and Steve Slaton lining up in the backfield.
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By SDI August 23, 2010 - 6:23 pm
I agree with your analysis rocket. I can’t see Michigan outscoring us given the situation in their defensive backfield. As bad as Hayseed has the ability to be, he’s probably better than anyone Michigan has. And besides ND’s safeties, I’m feeling pretty good about the rest of the D.
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By BigE August 23, 2010 - 7:04 pm
That is a painful clip to watch, but I don’t blame Hayseed as much as I blame the d-coaches. He was put in a bad situation that took him out of position while the ILB blitzed – yet again and then was promptly push 10 yard to the inside. He’s athletic and with proper coaching and scheme, I’m hoping he will be put in better positions to make a play. Fleming got juked, but he turned the ball carrier back inside where there is suppose to be help, but again, the blitzing ILB was taken for a ride down the line and there was no help from the pursuit.
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By SDI August 23, 2010 - 7:06 pm
Hope you’re right. Smith seems like a good kid and it would be great to see him have a big year.
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By DeepTeaKup August 23, 2010 - 7:29 pm
domer,
A few things:
1. You’re eating my lunch here, a lot of this was going to be in my Michigan preview.
2. How could not include Brandon Graham? 1st round pick, think he was even on a couple of AA lists. He will be replaced (if he can) by Greg Banks most likely. With (yet another) new scheme he will be asked to be more of a run stopper than anything.
3. I’m going to guess that Cullen Christian takes Wolfolk’s spot but that may be me hoping more than anything.
4. I’m thinking D-Rob can improve quite a bit, I seem to recall Brady Quinn making a huge leap from terrible to above average as a passer from FR to Soph year. If D-Rob can go from terrible to average he will be a weapon.
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By The Biscuit August 23, 2010 - 7:43 pm
DTK. 2 things to your four.
1. On #2, you’re right on. DMQ missed Graham. Ooops.
2. On 4, you’ve gotta be kidding me. BQ was ‘bad’ in the sense that a real QB is bad as a passer. Robinson wasn’t a QB in the passing sense of the word at all. Ever.
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By trey August 23, 2010 - 10:41 pm
Brady went from a 55% passer as a SOPHOMORE to a 65% as a Junior. BAD, if you take that comparatively. You also have to note he had 2,500 yards that year too.
Robinson was a 49.5% passer with 188 yds…
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By domer.mq August 24, 2010 - 6:41 am
I didn’t miss Graham. He just didn’t do much in the ND game last year. He had just 3 tackles in the game. Granted, 2 of them were for a loss, but each was only a loss of 1 yard. Really he just stalemated ND on those. The idea here isn’t to showcase the guys who were bit to the opposition all of last year. Just the guys who were big to the opposition against the Irish. Guys whos names were called over and over again in that one game. I’ve noticed a trend where particular opposing players have just one big game all year, and it’s against the Irish. Mathews is a great example of that.
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By DeepTeaKup August 23, 2010 - 8:06 pm
Biscuit,
I’m serious, I don’t pretend to think that D-Rob will ever be a pro style passer but he has a cannon for an arm. IMO, his biggest problem last year was with touch. We’ll all find out in a few weeks.
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By The Biscuit August 23, 2010 - 11:18 pm
doesnt matter what kind of cannon you have if you have literally no idea where the ball is going to go. he wasnt allowed to throw for a reason last year. Quinn at least threw the ball a a frosh, because he could. (now? well…)
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By Brad August 24, 2010 - 8:05 am
While I disagree with the whole Brady comparison, I do think DTK is right. Brady had to read defenses. In DickRods offense, all the QB needs to do is make very basic, simple reads….how many in the box, is the flat cover going back, or coming into the hook. Much, much easier stuff.
This offense at UM is predicated on the threat of running the ball, and using bubble screens and little outside passes to keep that defense spread through constraint theory-based plays applying pressure on the structure of the defense. Essentially, a QB in this system doesn’t HAVE to be a great (or even good) QB to be effective. If he can make the simple reads that DickRod gives him, and deliver the ball to parts of the field where the fewest people are, then it will be effective. And while DRob may not have the best accuracy in the world, if he can run the ball efficiently to force teams to bring just 7 (or more) players in the box, then he will have lots of simple, high percentage passes to make and an occassional bomb down the field, which he can definitely do.
If teams line up with 7-8 in the box, and Michigan lines up with 4 wide, it doesn’t take a Peyton Manning to efficiently deliver the ball to an open guy.
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By DeepTeaKup August 24, 2010 - 9:05 am
I was not making a direct comparsion between Brady and DRob, they are obviously completely different players. I was just trying to point out the difference between a FR an Soph QB, IMO that is where a QB makes the biggest gain in perfomance.
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By domer_mq August 24, 2010 - 8:41 am
The thing Denard really has going for him is the “Vick Effect.” Every bootleg is a threat from him to the DBs of a big gain running, so opposite to the boot, run a post. If the safety gets sucked in by Dennard, he can just wing it down to the post. Just like Vick. And yes, I agree, Dennard can wing it down there. It’s that “cannon of an arm” that we hear so much about when the Raiders have the first pick in the draft.
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By Adam August 23, 2010 - 11:01 pm
if i ever need to vomit, i just watch that forcier clip and it does the trick… great article though
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