Sometimes things don't work out like as I expect. Take most of my dating life, for example. Or, for another example, check out BYU going independent before Texas.
Brigham Young University will leave the Mountain West Conference, go independent in football and rejoin the Western Athletic Conference in all non-football sports beginning in the fall of 2011, The Salt Lake Tribune confirmed Wednesday morning.
According to a source in the WAC office, BYU will seek final approval for the moves from its owner, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, either today or Thursday. Pending approval, a press conference is planned for early next week. But because of media reports that broke late Tuesday night, that timetable may change.
You may recall that I argued that various "haves" of the college football world would find independence increasingly attractive, as it means full ownership/power of branding and content. It also means you aren't sharing with the "have-nots." I'd sort of forgotten that BYU is decidedly a have, with market infiltration in all 50 states (and various foreign nations too) due to the fact that it's owned by the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.
And now we see momentum behind the new narrative that Rakes of Mallow pointed out.
The narrative has actually shifted even further, so that it's not just that Notre Dame's independence is acceptable for them, but that it's attractive to others. As I mentioned above, do you think Texas enjoyed being part of a conference when they were pondering a move to the PAC 10 and had A&M and Tech holding onto their legs, begging to be dragged along? The option of freedom is in the air, even if it's been pushed back a few years with the most recent Big XII peace accords. Sure, it's a little tougher to schedule the non-revenue sports, but this is a business and agreements can be made that are beneficial to both parties.
By borromini August 18, 2010 - 3:34 pm
It would be college football going back to a previous era where Major Independents was a force to be reckoned with.
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By SDI August 18, 2010 - 3:46 pm
when I read this I was wondering if ND, TX, and BYU could work together to schedule games and maybe even land a new tv contract in a few years. ND games at 1:00 eastern, Texas at 4:00, BYU at 7:00. The network and the schools might all benefit from having people tune in early or late to catch other games a part of a Saturday college football triple header lineup.
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By Pat August 19, 2010 - 6:47 am
Problem with that is, if ND started at 1:00 on NBC, the game wouldn’t end until about 7:30.
Also, how is a late night, primetime BYU game a draw? It would be going up against ABC and ESPN’s hand-picked primetime matchups.
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By SDI August 19, 2010 - 11:05 am
Well, I’m not sure what NBC normally runs in the evening spot, but unless it is some hit reality tv show, I bet a good college football game would be competitive. Also, BYU would only be half of the equation. What if as an independent they started scheduling games against USC, UCLA, ND, Ohio State, Michigan, etc. It would only take a few big ticket teams a year to boost ratings significantly. I can guarantee you that BYU and USC would generate plenty of viewership all over the western U.S. Same for the midwest if they were playing UM or OSU.
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By Pat August 19, 2010 - 11:12 am
They aren’t going to schedule all those teams in a single year. BYU week after week just isn’t going to draw a national audience. Even the Irish, when they are bad, can barely justify it.
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By SDI August 19, 2010 - 11:34 am
I wasn’t suggesting they would sched
them all in the same year, but 1 or 2.
You are making my point for me about
the benefits to ND. Maybe the national
numbers really don’t justify ND getting
another big network deal. Whereas a package
deal that included other big games including
Texas, BYU or any other good football
schools might be more attractive to
networks than ND alone.
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By DeepTeaKup August 19, 2010 - 9:31 am
SDI, do you really think Texas or ND woudl worry about BYU scheduling games at the same time? What is the benefit of ND or Texas helping BYU?
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By SDI August 19, 2010 - 11:01 am
I think ND benefits from having other quality football schools thriving as independents. It gives them another quality team for future scheduling. Would ND fans rather see ND BYU or ND Western Michigan for example? It relieves the pressure from the “ND is the only indepedent and must join a conference drumbeat”. It also gives strength in numbers when it comes to negotiating for BCS spots and TV packages.
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By John '07 August 18, 2010 - 5:54 pm
It’s funny to hear all the positive aspects of football independence after all the stories on why ND needs to join a conference.
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By TLNDMA August 18, 2010 - 9:50 pm
Any negatives if BYU does this? Plenty, they have vey little leverage with the BCS. 10-2 ND vs. 10-2 BYU. = BCS vs. Music City Bowl, If BYU can get a tie in.
BYU, Utah got in the PAC 10, get over it.
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By Pat August 19, 2010 - 6:44 am
Domer, do you really consider BYU one of the “haves” of college football? I’m not sure this is what you had in mind.
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By Brad August 19, 2010 - 7:14 am
They may not be a “have”, but they certainly have enough tradition and enough strong support from a large, nation-wide Mormon community that will support them to make it worth their while. They draw 1.5 mil for MWC play right now. Even if they latch on to a Mormon channel, or Versus-type channel, or make their own, if they can get Mormon families to purchase that channel, they can easily make up more than 1.5 mil. Maybe not MUCH more, but if they get to keep 100% of their bowl rights (even from a lower tier bowl) then that makes it more likely that they succeed and bring in 4-5 million a year. Thats peanuts for big programs, but may be nice for them.
I think that an independent BYU which scraps together games and gets 11 wins a year has a better shot at a big bowl game than a 10-2 BYU team that loses to Utah and TCU, and again, if they are independent, they keep all that cash.
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By domer_mq August 19, 2010 - 8:15 am
They’re a “have” in the sense that they’ve got market infiltration everywhere. Maybe, what, 6 other programs could claim that? Other “haves” possess other things that make them so, but this is BYU’s leverage. Many/most programs possess no leverage at all.
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By Pat August 19, 2010 - 8:17 am
Mormons are a tiny percentage of the populace. We seem to be making them sound larger than life.
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By Brad August 19, 2010 - 8:36 am
They are a tiny population, but there is still 3-4 million of them in this country. Most of them happen to be concentrated on the West Coast, and it is a relatively fast growing religion. However, the point is not that they will somehow be a powerhouse program. The point is only that by being independent with a pretty devoted base, that may well be enough for them to be independent and make more than the 1.5 they are making now.
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By domer_mq August 19, 2010 - 9:12 am
Exactly. It’s tiny in terms of sum, but market positioning, plus serving as a base, plus no longer having to share with those schools w/o even 2% of a population as a base… the math probably works in their favor.
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By JM August 19, 2010 - 3:56 pm
There are mormons are all over the country, though there are a lot out west, so you are still talking about a national audience. It’s like Notre Dame on a much smaller scale. I’m sure every mormon grows rooting for BYU — I have friends who are mormon and are big BYU fans even though they didn’t go there. So BYU has very loyal grads and all over the country. Since they already have some TV options (there is a Mormon channel I believe; they could add a weekly football game), it’s not a bad move. And with the little money they were bringing in before, they don’t need to succeed on a large scale to make this a good move.
The best part to me is all this talk about how ND will have no choice but to join a conference, etc. — none of the talking heads saw a move to independence coming, even if it is just BYU for now.
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By DeepTeaKup August 19, 2010 - 9:29 am
domer, I think you are vastly overestimating the potential market penetration of BYU. I’ve seen higher estimates than Brad, but let’s do a little fun math here. If there are say 6 million LDS folks in this country, let’s say that 50% (which is pretty generous) are football fans. That leaves you with 3 million, I would hazard a guess that at least 70% of these people would be concentrated in Nevada, Colorado, Arizona, Utah, and California. That leaves you with less than 1 million spread out across the country, how does that equal market penentration everywhere?
Just for more fun, here is my list of teams that have truly national appeal/market penetration:
UM
ND
OSU
Texas
That is to say that these teams could gain a measurable TV audience in a many of the major broadcast markets in this country. Now, there are a lot of very big regional powers who do extremely well in their respective regions but do not have penetration everywhere (the big SEC teams, USC, Oklahoma). BYU, IMO, is definitely one rung below these teams.
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By Brad August 19, 2010 - 10:32 am
I don’t think anyone is saying BYU is in the same rung as those teams.
What I am saying is that I think there is enough of a market for them to make it worthwhile. If I pitched a tv show to NBC and could guarantee them even a million (1/6th of their population by your estimate) they would snatch that shit up in a second. Not to mention Mormon-based businesses who would relish the opportunity to get an add for their business/product during a BYU football game. That certainly not enough to make them a power, or to demand a BCS deal like ND maybe, but enough to make it MORE profitable now to be independent than be stuck getting 1.5 mil from the MWC and having to share bowl revenue.
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By DeepTeaKup August 19, 2010 - 10:39 am
Brad,
You would need a far larger audience than to get NBC to come on board. My main point is that BYU is a regional power, it may be worth their while to get out of the MWC but they will do far better on the TV deal than any potential bowl tie-in.
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By domer_mq August 19, 2010 - 10:47 am
DTK, the argument isn’t “BYU can go independent and live like ND.” It’s “BYU has the means to go Independent and succeed in their own way.”
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By Brad August 19, 2010 - 11:26 am
DeepTeaKup,
Oh, well thats precisely what I’m saying. I think that regionally, they can do quite well as an independent.
With regards to my ‘give me a million for NBC comment, I should’ve thought that through. I just picked NBC at random as any old network, if I could guarantee a million viewers for any old show.
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By WiscoDomer August 19, 2010 - 1:47 pm
BYU has their own network and is currently negotiating with ESPN to broadcast some of their games. Independence is incredibly viable
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By Pat August 19, 2010 - 11:08 am
All this talk about the viability of BYU’s independence — let’s face it: they’d join the Big 12 or PAC-10 in a heartbeat.
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By Trey August 19, 2010 - 8:57 pm
Lol that osu & scUM top UT in mkt pen.
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By Brad August 19, 2010 - 7:09 am
I think that this is a great thing for ND. It weakens the possibility of another conference getting a BCS bowl tie in, and further destabilizes the conference atmosphere in college football. If BYU succeeds doing this, which they can (lots of Mormons out there will watch, that alone should bring in more than the 1.5 mil they make now) then other teams may be tempted to say “screw it” and go hog wild.
Texas, Florida St……I am looking at you.
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By BryanW August 19, 2010 - 10:15 am
Texas can destroy all of the superconference nonsense if they choose independence. If not for the Texas legislature working so hard to keep the Texas teams (some of them anyway) together, the Longhorns might already be independent. There certainly isn’t anything else holding them back. The Big Roman Numeral is hardly a draw anymore.
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By Pat August 19, 2010 - 11:06 am
Haha. The Big Roman Numeral?! Really? That’s so much easier than just saying “12.” You, sir, have taken the taco.
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By BryanW August 19, 2010 - 11:24 am
Pat, we have to distinguish it from the Big Integer up north.
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By Brad August 19, 2010 - 11:28 am
None of you bastards ever said anything about tacos!
I will go home now to work on my ability to be witty.
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By WiscoDomer August 19, 2010 - 11:24 am
All of this may be irrelevant. The idea of going independent is predicated on the fact that the other sports at BYU would be in the WAC, similar to the ND-Big East relationship. With Fresno State and Nevada joining Boise State in the WAC exodus, the WAC is left with 6 teams and may no longer be viable.
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By domer_mq August 19, 2010 - 11:46 am
Yep. Certainly the Judo move of the realignment year.
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By The Biscuit August 19, 2010 - 12:20 pm
Won’t they just pick up someone else to fill the holes? Everyone just goes on down the line…
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By domer_mq August 19, 2010 - 1:15 pm
I think at some point, the buyouts will outweigh the revenue gains. A lot of these schools probably don’t have the cash to layout to get out of wherever they’d be leaving.
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By WiscoDomer August 19, 2010 - 1:40 pm
As of right now, rumors are circulating that Hawaii is looking at going independent. Louisiana State is being courted by the Sun Belt. The Mountain West is not done expanding.
There may be even more incentive to leave. The WAC has a 5 million dollar buyout to leave, but if the conference collapses, there is no one to pay the buy out to. Everyone bolts, and no one has to pay. Eventually you run out of teams to grab
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