Seems like it's Strength of Schedule week, eh?
The Police think so anyway.
SDI had a good idea. He was wondering what kind of an SOS is 'needed' to get to the BCS MNC. So I ran the numbers on the past 3 seasons. Turns out, a difficult schedule isn't really needed at all, at least to make a regular BCS game.
Over the past 3 years, the SOS ranks of the teams in the MNC game are as follows: 2 vs. 38, 4 vs. 7, 11 vs. 53.
So some teams run the gauntlet to get to the championship game, while others are battling decent but not world-beating schedules in the 30s-50s. An undefeated ND team against a SOS in the 40s has a very, very good shot of making a title game.
For the non-MNC BCS games, the criteria get a bit loose.
In 2009, the average SOS for teams in the BCS was 40. The low was 96 (Boise) and teams with SOS's of 60 and 50 also made the cut. Note (again) that ND's LOWEST SOS since '98 was 50. Yeah.
In '08 the average was 38 (high of 60) and in '07 the average SOS of BCS-playing teams was 53 (high of 132!!!! from Hawaii).
So, you dont really need a tough schedule to make the BCS. You just need to win all your games.
This isn't a case for a cakewalk schedule at all. Just an observation.
And a POV: that ND should aim for schedules around the 30s-40s. Top 25-30% of schedules, but not necessarily top 10/20 every year. We should be challenged, we should have games of interest, but we shouldn't schedule ourselves OUT either.
By SDI August 11, 2010 - 3:33 pm
Thanks Biscuit, very interesting. I think you’re right, 30-40 is probably a good spot to be. Feldman has an article up right now at ESPN entitled “To Cream Puff, or Not to Cream Puff” where he seems to endorse the Boise way of doing things–a couple of good teams and a whole bunch of bad ones. Stoops also seems to have concluded that you do yourself a disservice by not loading up on the puffs.
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By SDI August 11, 2010 - 3:35 pm
actually it’s Ted Miller, citing a Feldman piece.
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By Erik '04 August 12, 2010 - 12:44 pm
This is a great analysis. Somehow, though, you KNOW the voters will see an ND schedule in the 30s-40s and claim it’s too easy and not vote us in, while simultaneously voting in a team with an SOS in the 40s-50s. This does lend some credence to the people who don’t think we need to schedule Texas, Florida, Alabama, Oklahoma, USC, Michigan, and Miami all in the same year, though.
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By The Biscuit August 12, 2010 - 2:19 pm
thanks. and right, we don’t. you need 2-3 big time games a year, tops. we have USC, Michigan (even though they suck) and usually one of our other teams (look at Pitt) is tough. that’s just fine.
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