We hope it isn't the case. We pray it isn't the case. Coach Kelly says it isn't the case with his '5 minute plan vs 3 year plan' sound bites. I hope he's right. But typically, turn-arounds don't happen in a year.
Even for Kelly.
At Grand Valley, Kelly coached 10 seasons before he lead a team to a DII National Championship. Then he did it twice more. In those 10 seasons before ultimate victory, his teams performed well. But 8-9 win seasons aren't what people are pining for here.
At Central Michigan, Kelly took a 3 win team to, gasp, 4 wins in his first year. Then 6 wins in his 2nd year, and 9 in his third. A drastic turnaround, yes, but it didn't happen in Year 1.
At Cincy, the victories came early and often, with a 10-win season in his first year. But, there were also 3 losses. This isn't much better than Weis' first year. The next year he was 11-3 and last year 12-0 before the bowl game. It took him 3 years to get Cincy to a record that would deliver an ND-level team to the MNC. Kelly's system, his way of doing things, seems like it needs time to take hold. He appears to be instilling a culture and a way of doing things as much as any offensive or defensive scheme. And that takes time. He's re-shaping bodies and training habits and all of that, and that takes time. 5-minute plan or not, I am just raising the question: how quickly can Kelly make this team over? He's got a decent chunk of experienced talent, but he also has some gaps. He's got a bunch of guys that want to lead, but few have actually done it. How quickly can this team go from 6-6 to the BCS? I don't know.
I'm not saying it's impossible, and I'm not saying I won't be pulling for a 12-0 regular season. But taking a team from 6-6 to undefeated is no small task. I'll pull for Kelly to make it happen. But based on most turn-arounds, and based on Kelly's own history, I don't see it as likely. Crazy expectations here at Notre Dame, yes.
But heck, I'll be just fine with 1 loss.
Tops.
By trey June 29, 2010 - 5:51 pm
The largest factor, though, is TALENT. At GVU & CMU, especially, he was dealing with bottom of the barrel talent and he had to make them believe they could compete with the big boys. At ND, the task is the complete opposite. We SHOULD have 100x the talent of anywhere Kelly has coached, he just needs to slap everyone down a notch and get chips off of shoulders.
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By Pat June 29, 2010 - 5:56 pm
This is the big question. Certainly the cupboard isn’t bare. But how institutionally screwed up is Notre Dame really? I don’t know. I’d still like to think though that Kelly is “the guy,” and he can fix it and make ND into a contender and a winner. How quickly though? — good question.
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By SDI June 29, 2010 - 6:09 pm
Yes, that is the question of the year Biscuit. That’s why I was asking about the SEE Post earlier. I agree with Trey that BK has far more talent to work with at ND than other stops. He also has a mature (if not experienced) QB with tons of potential. No offense to La Fevour or Pike, but when it’s all said and done I expect Crist to blow past those two. And as bad as ND was last year in some ways, they were damn good in others. Believe me, Floyd, Rudolph, Allen, Stewart, Robinson and Crist and even Cierre Wood won’t be lacking in confidence or expectations. They scored pretty much at will last year. Which brings us back to the defense, which is where these discussions about ND 2010 ultimately end up. If the D can build some confidence in the early season games they could turn out to be scary good. But I said the same thing last year and we know how that turned out. I think that Diaco will either be the hero or the goat this year depending upon how things go.
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By The Biscuit June 29, 2010 - 6:35 pm
the talent point is a good one – he does have better ‘materials’ to work with. but, how long does this art take? even with the best materials (see: Meyer, Urban) in the cupboard (Zook was a horrid coach, but amazing recruiter), UF didn’t win right away. Kelly hasn’t won right away. I would love to see him rip off 11/12 wins, I just dont know how far they have to go…defense does appear to be the key, but last year’s offense, while explosive, had its share of bonehead mistakes/turnovers/miscues that cost a few games too. Can 1 offseason change all that? We will see.
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By SDI June 29, 2010 - 7:18 pm
Good questions. I am optimistic about the reduction in mistakes/turnovers/miscues. I think that good coaching will have an immediate and decisive effect in this area.
It’s hard to compare different scenarios. For example, I have no idea how well coached Zook’s players were compared to Weis’. I would like to think Weis was better but who knows.
Another point, ND did not suffer a single double digit loss last year did they? Seems to me that that would suggest they won’t need drastic improvements in most areas. I have no idea what to expect really. I can argue it both ways.
It also occurred to me that if Brian Smith and Kerry Neal get pushed aside by Fleming and Filer, and I think that is likely–ND will not start a single player on D that isn’t at least a 4 star. I know, rankings are worthless and all that, but that is still encouraging.
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By TLNDMA June 29, 2010 - 9:47 pm
The fact that Kelly’s staff is familar with each other should help speed up the process of getting this team ready. That they’ve been in this position before helps also.
The question is the Qb. I believe we will be as strong, if not stronger, at most other spots. If Crist can pick things up quickly, this could be exciting.
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By Pat June 30, 2010 - 8:43 am
Few things: I like that Kelly is building in the trenches. That’s where it all begins and more often than not, where it all ends. Also, I like the new training table and the new approach to strength and fitness. Between last year’s games lost in the fourth quarter and the poor record late in the season for many years running, the new emphasis on physical fitness was far overdue.
A point on the speed in which this team can be “good” again: There’s a huge gulf between being decent — 8 wins — and competing for the national championship. The former, I’m expecting, should come soon because, frankly, this is college football folks, and the schedule is very manageable. Getting to 11-12 wins is a much more difficult prospect (naturally), and the teams that win that many are usually among the elite.
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By domer.mq June 30, 2010 - 10:42 am
TLDNMA, I think you’re onto something there. I think actually it’s the fact that Kelly’s staff is largely familiar with one another and with “the system,” that ND has a chance to be very good very quickly. Unlike Weis and his staff of guys all unfamiliar with eachother (for the most part) trying to feel their way out in the world of college football, Kelly and his “disciples” all loyally follow Kelly’s dogma of college football success. They feel they “know” what to do and will just do that.
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By SDI June 30, 2010 - 10:48 am
TLD–Normally I would agree that Crist is the key given his lack of playing time, new and different system etc. and you are right to point it out. But I watched quite a bit of Zach Collaros last year when Pike got hurt, and no insult to him, but he’s no Dayne Crist. And if BK can win games and score a boatload of points with him, I somehow am not at all worried about what BK can get out of Crist on short notice.
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By The Biscuit June 30, 2010 - 10:57 am
yeah, DMQ, i am with you – having the whole staff on the same page and familiar with one another is a huge shift from the last few years. you could almost feel the dysfunctionality going on in Weis’ staff.
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By Erik '04 June 30, 2010 - 12:52 pm
Turning this ship around quickly would be great, but I would be ecstatic if he has us 12-0 and playing for an mnc in his third year. BCS games the next two years won’t make anyone jump too far for joy given that Weis did that too. It’ll be whether we’re competing again in year 3 or going 3-9 that will show the difference.
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By TLNDMA June 30, 2010 - 5:47 pm
Erik, the 3 & 9 yrs. are gone.
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