Maybe Jack Swarbrick had nothing to do with ND surviving this round of realignment. Perhaps he made no moves to kill the conferences. Perhaps.
The "seismic shifts" of conference realignment happened. Did you miss it? Nebraska is now wondering how their Texas recruiting base will hold up as they join the Big Ten.* Colorado is coming to grips with the fact that they'll now never be able to buy out Dan Hawkins since they'll soon owe fees to the Big-12 as the only program to leave Texas' conference for the Pac-10. The Pac-10 is about to force itself to unanimously vote to invite Utah into the fold, and the B10's Jim Delaney is wondering if he should really be cracking open the 60 year old scotch for this special occasion since he targeted both Texas and Notre Dame and got... Nebraska. Got it? Yep. That's it. And here's all we learned: Nothing lasts forever, and with this iteration of conference realignment, neither shall college football conferences.
And let's be clear: So goes college football, so goes all of college athletics. Just ask Kansas.
The jealous pursuit of Notre Dame by the Big Ten and a legion of Northwestern journalism graduates had us a bit confused. Why covet something that would cease to be what it is once you possess it? Perhaps the Big Ten was confused as well. Perhaps the B10 thought that they were simply "maximizing revenue potential" by looking for any way to bag ND. But, as we look forward to the events that Texas just set in motion, we now realize that the Big Ten was simply seeking to maximize a probably short lifespan. In order for conferences to survive long-term, the independents must be eliminated. In order to protect the conference member institutions that cannot stand on their own and protect their own interests (and thus protect the conference itself), the conferences must seek full participation. Instead it appears a new independent is about to be born.
You've probably read over and over again that the new deal to keep the Big 12 alive is untenable in the long run. It's true. While the numbers projected in the plan will probably set all interested parties into positions that are better than the positions held today, eventually a conference where Texas always wins (financially, and, probably, on the field) can't last. But the new Big 12 buys Texas 2 very important things: Power and Time. And with those two weapons in Texas' pocket, Texas is on course to become an independent power.
The new Big-12 deal allows for Texas to reap nearly all of the rewards it generates (and even some it doesn't generate) as the result of an "extremely advantageous position." And it also allows Texas to spring a Longhorn TV network (as they've desired for quite a while), which opens their door to autonomy. And the time the new Big 12 deal buys Texas will allow the Longhorns to leverage their foothold on autonomy into full independence once the rest of the Big 12 is forced to find sweeter deals and simply washes away.
It was one thing for Notre Dame to be a holdout from conference affiliation all these years. There's still a lot of mystique surrounding the program, recent losses to Navy aside. Still a lot of belief that there's something ethereal and special about Notre Dame that can't be replicated, and thus no other "serious" football program could achieve and maintain a viable position of independence. But once Texas stands alone, and continues to reap their rewards (and keep all of them), and continues to be able to build compelling schedules because, by God, it's Texas (and their money and ratings too), how long until other programs that fit into the "have" category decide to shed their revenue-sharing affiliations with the "have nots?" Sure, Texas itself has some unique advantages (being in Texas primary among them), but any power program has some sort of advantage.
At which point will Southern Cal look around Los Angeles and realize they're still the only championship football program in the middle of one of the nation's largest media markets? How much longer until the romance of "the toughest conference in the country" wears thin for Florida? And once the four corners of the college football world are held by the four independent powers of Notre Dame, Florida, Southern Cal, and Texas, how long until the game of "us too" gets into full swing? If Washington gets back to some level of prominence, how strong will it stand in a major metropolitan area? And Miami? Ever notice the strong presence of VaTech fans and alumni in the DC metro area? And Ohio State sits in the middle of a little place I like to call "Ohio." And all of the southeast, as anyone who once lived there knows, is inhabited by people from Ohio. Any of those programs could find angles and advantages that would create avenues towards autonomy as well.
The key here is content distribution. Ultimately, the only thing any athletic program has to sell is branding and content. In the age when modern major college football conferences first took shape, the only way to get the content distributed, and thus sold, was via television networks. But now content has far more avenues for distribution. Even if it's tough to start your own cable TV network, it's hard not to notice that even cable TV stalwarts are bypassing cable all together to distribute content these days. ESPN, for example, will soon be distributing content to Xbox 360s. No cable required. And I've yet to see a single World Cup game that wasn't shown on my home computer screen. The options are many, and the production costs are falling. If you're a powerful brand in college sports, you too may control your content. Sure, the Purdues and Baylors of the world will likely continue to align themselves into conferences, seeking to find some sort of value via cooperation that they can't find via their own brands, but those conferences will look more like Conference USA than the SEC.
So let's say I'm right. Let's say that in 20 years, the 10 biggest football programs aren't participants in football conferences any longer. Let's consider the role ND played in all of this. What if this Judo move by Texas to "preserve" the Big 12 and set itself on a course for independence was partly orchestrated or assisted by Jack Swarbrick and Notre Dame. Is it possible that Notre Dame, in an effort to defend its independence, just took steps to kill the conferences? We've no idea what Texas AD Deloss Dodds and ND AD Jack Swarbrick have been doing while they were meeting, but we find it unlikely that they were doing nothing with respect to conference realignment. And now it seems impossibly unlikely that they were deciding who would announce Big 10 membership first. The conferences are dead, and ND may have helped kill them.
*Nebraska, at last count, has 43 players from Texas on the roster. Yikes.
By borromini June 16, 2010 - 5:09 pm
Well I think this post just covered the last of all the possible conference realignment scenarios that have been spinning for the past few months.
Except this one has the most juicy irony of them all!
One question with this particular possibility: What happens to the Ten Independents’ basketball and non-revenue sports? Do they form an all-new Independent conference? Wouldn’t that take us back to the 70′s/80′s?
Is this grounds for a new variation on the classic saying?:
“Some things change…and sometimes eventually, those same things go back to being the same”
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By SDI June 16, 2010 - 6:19 pm
Interesting theory MQ. It occurred to me that a handful of heavy hitters like ND and Texas could get together and form a non-conference conference, wherein they worked together to schedule games, negotiate with the BCS, etc. I had not considered that there may be several more big named independents one day soon.
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By Rocket89 June 16, 2010 - 6:57 pm
I was hoping that someday the conferences would just expand to the point where there was just one and thus…everyone is independent again!
It will be interesting to see what Texas does with their schedule. They’ve been pretty soft in the OOC department for quite a while and in order to be independent they’d have to start making some phone calls to better programs. As it stands, in a ten-team Big 12 with only one equal rival (OU), Texas will have to schedule better games. There’s no way they get to the NC ahead of ND if we’re both 11-1 in 2012.
I’ve just started brainstorming a piece on if or how ND could get its own channel. It will be more difficult because ND is national, but I’d love to see it done.
All this realignment talk has me worried about not being able to watch Irish road games. It doesn’t happen very often, but I don’t like being caught off guard (like 2007 against UCLA) when a game isn’t shown wear I live. I’d pay just about any fee from cable or satelite or whatever, but I’d like the security of ND having their own sports channel.
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By borromini June 16, 2010 - 8:40 pm
The more I think about it, the more I like the idea of an ND Channel.
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By domer.mq June 16, 2010 - 8:52 pm
borromini, I think if this scenario were to play out, the have nots would just be happy to get associated with the power independents via basketball, bball, etc… I think the power independent model would look pretty similar to the current ND model, but with each power having their own “TV network” or whatever is the distribution system du jour.
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By domer.mq June 16, 2010 - 8:54 pm
SDI, I do think there’d be a lot of de facto conference working with the independent powers. Some sort of symbiotic cooperation. Think of them as nations managing to get along just enough not to kill each other, and on occasion help one another out.
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By domer.mq June 16, 2010 - 8:58 pm
Rocket89, as the big 12 settles in, I actually think you’ll only see a single OOC game per team that’s really a quality game. The round-robin system that gives them all 9 conference games means that their average W/L records will take a hit compared to the average W/L with the previous scheduling system. That means fewer bowl qualifications. It’ll be tough for them to qualify for bowls as is.
I’d actually really be interested to see how ND could scratch the BE’s back a bit by participating heavily in a BE network. Coaches shows, non-rev sports broadcasts, etc. Plus it keeps the ND foothold heavy on the NYC mkt until the “ND Network” could break loose at a more ideal time (say, after the NBC contract is up).
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By John '07 June 17, 2010 - 12:13 am
An ND channel would be great. I believe Comcast has one in the Chicago area (last I checked) called “ND On Demand”. It wouldn’t seem too hard to expand that to other major markets with Comcast (who now owns NBC). If ND was able to get a channel nationwide, across all cable providers, then football could move over from NBC.
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By Rocket89 June 17, 2010 - 9:11 am
This ND On Demand has me intrigued. Sounds like a good platform for the future.
Anyone have more info on it? Apparently it is only offered in the Indiana, Michigan and Illinois are by Comcast.
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By Pat June 17, 2010 - 9:38 am
I find this all very ironic. I suggest it’s all about money, and I get hounded about how it’s disgusting to be worried about a few million here or there. Now, we have a thread that seems to be actively promoting, not only the virtues of independence, but an ND Network. And for what? To make money hand over fist, of course. Consider the case of the Big Ten Network: it’s only carried for, what?, a monthly fee. Even the frickin’ NFL(!) had to fight with Comcast before making an concession for Comcast to carry it as part of their regular digital package. In other words, if Notre Dame goes that route, prepare yourselves to start paying to watching Notre Dame football on TV — so Notre Dame can make even more money. Careful what you wish for.
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By borromini June 17, 2010 - 11:48 am
As it stands now…there’s a good chance that after the NBC contract expires in 2015, it won’t be free anyway.
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By Mattare June 17, 2010 - 11:51 am
Absolutely fantastic post MQ. This topic has been absolutely beaten to death over the past few months and you found a unique and intriguing angle on it.
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By The Biscuit June 17, 2010 - 1:18 pm
pat, you’re missing the point. going to the Big Ten for money would be ND giving up a bunch (by giving up independence) to get more money. ND starting a cable net gets ND more money while not giving anything up (they’re still indie). Money in and of itself isn’t a bad thing. Sacrificing things that ARE important for money? different.
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By Ryan June 17, 2010 - 1:30 pm
I know I’d be willing to pay so long as the broadcasting improved and they had less breaks at critical times!!!
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By Pat June 17, 2010 - 1:33 pm
I think you’re missing MY point: All the moralizing about greed and chasing money being “disgusting” seems only to be true when it ultimately serves to (supposedly) support your argument; now it all goes out the window. That’s the irony. And that’s the first point. The second is to ask, as fans, whether it is desirous to have to pay to watch Notre Dame football on TV.
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By domer.mq June 17, 2010 - 3:02 pm
I guess I missed the even when people jumped on you with claims that it’s disgusting to go after money, Pat. At least from my perspective, being part of the chase for money is the only way to survive in the college football game. Particularly as an independent.
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By John '07 June 17, 2010 - 3:05 pm
I agree with Biscuit. Money isn’t a bad thing, but sacrificing independence or the ND experience (Jumbotron, corporate tents, bland pep rallies)for money would be terrible. I would still prefer ND football games on NBC so that it is nationwide and free (I currently don’t have cable). Having it on regular cable would be ok, but it wouldn’t get the same publicity as on NBC (just think of how many people watch the NHL on Versus- a lot people don’t even know Versus is a channel). I also agree with MQ’s post, if other schools could turn independent, they would. Not sure it will happen, but it’s possible.
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By The Biscuit June 17, 2010 - 3:09 pm
i didnt moralize about chasing money. i moralized about chasing money at the expense of other things when you already have plenty of money. if all else is equal, of course we want more money. money can do lots of good things. not sure how you got to where you got in terms of what my position is – could’ve been my fault, dont know – but i LOVE money. money = fun. but i dont think ND should pursue cash over all else, especially independent status, catholic identity, etc etc. so i find it gross that some people (and i think you said something like this) intimated that ND should just go after the most cash regardless. that made me want to puke. but that doesnt mean i think money is evil.
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By Pat June 17, 2010 - 3:33 pm
Domer, I couldn’t agree more that, even as sad and unfortunate as it may be, you have to be part of the chase for money in college football. The stakes are so high concerning football, how else could one possibly explain a top 5 basketball program like Kansas almost getting left out in the cold, saved only by the decision of Texas? Amazing.
Biscuit, I think my position has been a bit more nuanced that just suggesting Notre Dame “go after the most cash regardless.” I just don’t think the school would melt down in accepting, if necessary, conference affiliation. Plainly, a large part of that “if necessary” concerns financial considerations.
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By The Biscuit June 17, 2010 - 4:05 pm
I think your last sentence is where we disagree – at least based on today’s status quo. We dont ‘need’ to do anything because of money right now. We’re flush, we’re rich, we’re wealthy. We may need to at some point down the line, but only if things have changed so much such that it would be impossible to survive/thrive. And while I agree that the school wouldn’t melt down, I think it would change enough that it would harm the essence of what makes ND ND.
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By Rocket89 June 17, 2010 - 10:31 pm
I look at it this way. Purely as a fan, I want as much ND coverage as I can get. And most of all, I want to know I can watch any and every Notre Dame game on TV in the future. Having our home games on NBC has been great, but I also think we’ve been a little spoiled with how much our away games have been on television.
I don’t think getting our own channel is about money up front, but giving our school more exposure. Who wouldn’t want to have access to interviews, press conferences, stories and all of that, plus great coverage of Irish games? All at the access of a finger tip.
And the thing is, Comcast is the one who started this ND ON DEMAND, for free. And Comcast is about to become huge when their stake in NBC U is approved. They say they want to have VS rival ESPN (I don’t believe that), but they could very well start putting a lot of the ND ON DEMAND programs on VS, or another channel. Maybe they won’t create an outright ND channel to start, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we see an upgrade in content from Comcast and some new things online and things of that nature.
Personally, I think the NBC broadcasts suck. The whole Tom Hammond/Kentucky Derby vibe is pretty lame. There’s a former USC qb doing color. I can only imagine how much better games would be with a revamped approach and Kelly winning 9 or 10 games a year. I think Comcast is pretty smart and they know there’s a lot of attention and people who will watch ND. Some have been afraid that the Comcast takeover of NBC means a decrease in interest (coupled with recent “low” ratings) with the school, but I think it’s just the opposite.
Swabrick is smart too…I have to think he’s looking into the television possibilities. He knows there’s fans out there who enjoyed watching Inside the Irish with Weis (shown on YES where I live) and that more of that progamming will only aid the school’s propserity.
We’re a sleeping giant as far as I’m concerned. More money is nice, but I think it’s more about making ND more popular and getting people interested in the school. Plus, the school does an awful lot of good with the money it makes too. If I have to pay $30 or $40 to access some form of ND channel or programming that brings great content, I will do it.
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By Rocket89 June 18, 2010 - 7:36 am
And the moralizing of wanting/needing more money. ND is plenty rich right now, but that doesn’t mean we should sit back and let others dictate our future. ND has always been about being bold and blazing its own path.
So even though we’re rich now, we have to go out and guarantee a bright future. And if we want a bright future AND independence, then looking into an ND channel or increased content such as that, is a great route.
It’s effectively like this, trying to get our own channel would be like a guy going out and trying to make sure his family is set for the future, making sure he has a nice insurance policy, a college fund for his kids, a trust fund for his grandchildren, and a nice retirement nest for when he’s old.
Conversely, joining the Big Ten or another conference because of the increased money is more like a guy going out and chasing money so he can feed his heroin habit and multiple affairs in four and five star hotels.
Both guys are “chasing” money so to speak, but there’s a big difference between the two. No need for moral confusion on this one.
Chasing the B10′s money is more like the second situation, it would be like forgetting our own set of ideals and what made us successful in the first place.
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