John Walters wrote this, and it's stuck in my craw ever since. And with all the conference realignment news happening as I was burning my toes with sun and injuring my liver with Dogfish Head's finest all last week, I feel a need to take a poll of our readership and get a sense of what you think will happen with regard to ND football and conferences in the relatively near future. So indulge me, please. Don't answer with your heart, and don't answer with what you think "ought" to happen. Let's test the wisdom of crowds.
What Will ND FB's Conference Membership Look Like in 2012?
- Independent. Stop asking questions! Lalalalalalala!!!!!111 (70%, 173 Votes)
- Crown Jewel of a 14 team conference (12%, 30 Votes)
- Megabot in a 16 team "super" conference (11%, 28 Votes)
- Omnipotent de facto head of a 8-10 team conference (5%, 12 Votes)
- Star in a My God, It's Full of Stars 64 Team Championship League (2%, 4 Votes)
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By OldAlum June 7, 2010 - 4:10 pm
Please make sure Swarbrick is appraised of these percentages
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By trey June 7, 2010 - 6:53 pm
I’m sure it will happen at some point. I just don’t think Jack is TOO far off his rocker to claim that a seismic shift may happen. However, it’s not going to be THIS season. I predict within 10 years, we will be affiliated with SOMETHING.
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By borromini June 7, 2010 - 9:04 pm
Yes…we will be affiliated with FBS Independents!
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By Matt June 7, 2010 - 7:30 pm
ESPN, like Walters, also proposed a 4-division, 64 team alignment a while back. Not a novel idea. What I haven’t seen addressed in these proposals is the purpose of non-conference games. Walters proposes 7 games against teams in your half of the conference, plus five other games. Would your entrance to the conference championship game just be based on your record in those 7 games (in which case the other 5 games are meaningless), or would the others count in some way (in which case evening out the difficulty of all of the teams non-conference schedules becomes crucial, and impossible)?
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By Pat June 8, 2010 - 8:35 am
I voted independent, but the seismic conference realignment talk seems to be heating up a bit now. It’s no longer just the Bleacher Report with wild fantasies. The Big Ten seemed to start all the talk, now the Pac-10 making a move is all the rave. We shall see.
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By Rocket89 June 8, 2010 - 9:16 am
Does anyone get the feeling that ND is being screwed and blackmailed by the Big Ten? And that Delany is Monty Burns, just waiting for the day that ND is left behind?
Waylon Smithers: “Sir, we’re on the phone with Nebraska & Missouri and reports have six teams leaving the Big 12 and joining the Pac-10. This will undoubtedly cripple Notre Dame.”
Mr. Burns: “Excellent…that is their destiny.”
Well, we’re not going to be blackmailed. I highly doubt Swarbrick’s going to see 6 teams potentially leaving the Big 12 and panic and jump to become the BT’s 12th team.
The question is, will we be screwed if there’s mega-expansion? And honestly, how likely are 4 mega-conferences with a playoff system in place that excludes ND?
This expansion stuff is easily the worst sports idea of this new century. Why can’t the Big Ten just add one team and move on with the way things are? Sure the system sucks right now, but mega-expansion almost guarantees the system will suck twice as much.
I don’t see a whole lot of positive about this for ND. Purely from a schedule aspect, this could be disastrous. Nevermind what it could do to recruiting and our national image. If we join a conference, are we still going to play USC, Navy and a couple other rivals? In a 16-team league, ND could play Michigan, OSU, Penn State and Nebraska, right? Playing USC would be five elite teams on the schedule, whereas all the other conference members will schedule an OOC elite opponent about once every ten years. We’d have the most insane schedule every season if we keep our traditional rivals. Just imagine our 2010 schedule, except instead of Army, Western Michigan and Tulsa, we’d be playing Penn State, Ohio State and Nebraska. I’m all for playing big games, but that would be ridiculous. Especially when other teams will snake their way around OOC games and guarantee themselves 3 victories heading into the brutal conference play.
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By Pat June 8, 2010 - 9:52 am
No, I wouldn’t say the Big Ten is conspiring or blackmailing against Notre Dame. The Big Ten desperately WANTS Notre Dame and merely wants what the SEC has: a conference championship game. The conferences are in cut-throat competition with each other with Notre Dame as one of the wildcards in it all.
I think you completely mischaracterize the strength of schedule stuff. Okay, in a conference, Notre Dame would (or could) play USC plus the likes of Michigan, OSU and PSU. Those schools have been doing the same thing and in recent years OSU has played home-and-home’s with Texas, USC and starting this year, Miami. Michigan and Notre Dame have been playing each other. And this year Penn St. is traveling down to play Alabama. Seems about like a wash to me.
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By domer.mq June 8, 2010 - 10:21 am
I agree with Pat on the intent of the B10. Delaney is desperate to get ND in as the 12th team, keep the conference “undiluted,” and raise their money $s big time. ND has “hand” in all of this. It really does. The “lock out” scenarios are laughable if you really think about it on the only level that matters: dollars and cents.
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By Rocket89 June 8, 2010 - 10:52 am
Pat,
I guess my point is that ND’s rivalry with USC would still be played, meanwhile the trend in the B10 has been to soften OOC games. Yes, OSU has played some elite teams, but most other schools in the conference have been dilluting their OOC schedules for a decade. Ten years ago, they rarely played I-AA teams and MAC opponents were few and far between. Now, they are all over the place. I think in a super conference setting, we will see less and less “big” teams on OOC schedules from these teams. Meanwhile, we’d be stuck having to either follow suit and drop our rivalry with USC (and others) or keep a crazy schedule.
Sure PSU is playing Alabama, but look at who’ve they played since 05: Akron, Syracuse, Temple, Easter Illinois, Coastal Carolina, Oregon State, Florida International, Notre Dame, Buffalo, Youngstown State, South Florida, Cincinnati, Central Michigan.
Who’s the best program in there? Us or Oregon State? And we’ve both been struggling to be ranked lately. Is there even a ranked opponent in there besides our thrashing of them in 2006? One game with ‘Bama doesn’t make that weak schedule disappear.
MQ,
I too think the lock out scenarios are laughable, but I still think we’re in a tough position. Delany may want ND as the 12th team, but why would we join? I don’t want to go to the Big Ten as it is right now. Add Nebraska and someone like Pitt then it might be worth it. I don’t think there’s anyway we join as the lone 12th team. So what options does Delany have?
I just get the sense that this guy does not like us, why would we want to be under his thumb? He’s looking out for the B10 first and foremost, but he seems intent on sticking it to us if possible.
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By Pat June 8, 2010 - 1:04 pm
Rocket, I get your point, and I think we probably agree a lot more than we disagree. We all hate watching Sept. football between perennial powerhouses and powder puffs. But I just find it hard to fault schools for their scheduling strength when scheduling Notre frickin’ Dame(!), especially considering these things are put together years in advance. Also, I’d just rebut that Notre Dame’s schedule, too, is staring to look more like that of a Big Ten school: San Diego St., Nevada, Western Michigan, Army, etc., in terms of buffering some easy ones with the more difficult.
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By The Biscuit June 8, 2010 - 11:17 am
I think there’s a chance that mega-expansion happens. I think there’s zero chance that ND gets ‘left in the cold’ which is the only threat Delany or anyone else has. Let’s say that the Tweleven becomes 16 (w/o ND) by raiding the BE, and the ACC expands too, and the SEC does, and Pac-10 does. The Big East and the Big 12 die. Guess what? ANY of those conferences boot their lowest-level member to get ND in. So if ND wants in, at any time, ND gets in. There’s no need for us to budge, which is why, as MQ said, we have hand here. Let them all fumble and F around and figure it out. In the end we stay Indie if we can/want to, or we join if/when we want to. Simply because they’d all take us. But I dont think that mad-crazy scenario happens now. More like 10 years out. I think there will be small moves in the next few years, then something bigger down the line. But just a guess.
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By BigE June 8, 2010 - 6:33 pm
Will realignments and or superconferences really have any more impact on ND than how we currently schedule against conference teams. These conferences will continue to allow for nonconference games and ND is still a big money draw and should continue under BK insuring that the BCS keep us in the plan. I say stay independent.
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By BigE June 8, 2010 - 6:42 pm
One other point, if the big east is raided, don’t they have a bunch of non football schools in that conference that ND can align with in non football sports or possibly join the A10.
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By Craig June 8, 2010 - 10:33 pm
BigE, there are a bunch of non-football schools in the Big East, but the majority of the all-sports power in the conference resides with the football schools. We’d be essentially giving up on championship aspirations in our other sports if we went with the Catholic schools.
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By trey June 9, 2010 - 12:12 am
Im keeping my eye on Texas. Whatever they do has more of an impact than whatever ND does. Wherever TX goes, A&M and TxTech will follow. UT has a major investment in Tech becoming a Tier 1 research school and the dollars it can bring to the state coffers, so anyone that dares to leave either of the other two schools out will get ignored by UT.
If UT leaves the XII, yeah, that conference is probably dead or it turns into the ACC version 2 after they pick up TCU, Houston, and/or New Mexico.
All this talk makes me wonder, though, if ANY of this happens…what becomes of the BCS? Could this be the catalyst that FINALLY, FINALLY begets a football playoff? What happens when the biggest player at the BCS table completely goes extinct and the Pac-10 becomes a behemoth with only ONE BCS bid?
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By Michael H June 9, 2010 - 11:36 am
I agree with Trey that if there is a seismic shift to larger conferences and the result is an extinct or mamed Big 12, an uber huge PAC10 with only one auto BCS Bid and a Big Tweleven1416 with the same problem then a playoff is assured. If for any reason to drive more revenue to all of these conferences.
Though I am against it and I firmly believe it to be a bad move for us it is my humble opinion that Swarbrick, Father Jenkins and the powers that be at our beloved Notre Dame will capitulate and be the one and only team to join the Big 10, 11 or 12b. This will make it THE 12 team conference with a Championship Game. The Big 12 and PAC 10 remain largely unchanged except for the possible addition of Colorado and Utah to the PAC 10 in what would be the dumbest move in history for that conference.
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By Michael H June 14, 2010 - 6:20 pm
Yeah well it seems I am wrong on all counts here except in that I may have been right about the PAC 10 or 12 or whatever they will call themselves. It seems that only Nebraska will be joining the Big Tweleventwelvefourteenwecantcount Conference. I have never been happier to be wrong in my life and it seems Notre Dame remains independent. With the news today that Texas is sticking with the other conference that seemingly can’t count, the Big 12 which is actually 10, the rest of that conference will likely stay put and the evolution of the uber conference has been halted.
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