Just the other day I took a look at Charlie and ND vs Kelly and Cincy/CMU in terms of Runniiiiiiiiing game production. I started into a similar analysis of passing - looking at productivity vs efficiency - but thought I should take a look at the play-calling mix first. What's the mix of Run vs Pass in each offense? How does one compare to the other? And therefore, what can we expect to change with Kelly at the helm?
That's one awesome Elephant. And a ridiculously strong beachball.
In 2009, Charlie Weis chose to run the ball, on average, 33.4 times per game. That was 88th in the country in terms of attempts. He threw the ball 37.3 times per game, or the 18th most in the country. That means Chuck was running about 47% of the time. [REALLY? Who would've guessed that we were ACTUALLY that close to the 50/50 balance that Weis purported to always want? Note: Sacks count as runs in conventional stats even though it makes no sense, so these numbers are slightly off, but I think the analysis holds up in general. ND allowed 2.1, 1.7, 4.8 and 2.3 sacks/game from 09 back to 06. Also, GOOD LORD 4.8 SACKS PER GAME IN 2007. Kelly's teams allowed 1.2, 2, 1.7 and 2.1. ND averaged 2.7 and Kelly's teams 1.8. So that 1 sack per game difference shouldnt make a huge difference in these stats - but man, I hope Kelly can do the same at ND in terms of minimizing sacks. Scrambles, etc probably add another small skew, but again I think it's relatively minor.]
In 2008, the Irish ran 49% of the time, and in 07 it was 53%. Back in '06 with Darius Walker ND ran 47% of the time. So over the 4-year span ND ran the ball about 34 times per game, and passed 35, for an almost perfectly-balanced 49% Run, 51% Pass mix.
Seriously? Would've never guessed it. But why does it seem so skewed? Well, because even with this balance, ND passed way more than most teams, and ran much less. ND was about 31st in rank in terms of Pass Attempts per Game. ND was 69th in Rush Attempts per Game. So while ND hit the 50/50 balance pretty much on the head, the rest of CFB leans much more heavily on the ground game.
Over this same time period, Coach Kelly's teams ran the ball even fewer times in each game. In 09 to 06, Coach Kelly's teams ran the ball, on average, 27.8, 32.5, 36.7, and 30.1 times per game, for an average of 32 Rush Attempts per Game (compared to ND's 34). This put his teams at an average rank of 99 out of the 120 teams tracked at CFBstats.com.
In the mean time, Kelly's squad posted numbers of 36.3, 33.7, 35.7, and 31.9 Pass Attempts per Game, for an average of 34.4 tosses per game (compared to ND's 35). Average Rank? 33 compared to ND's 31.
And the Run/Pass mix for Kelly over those 4 years? 48%. Almost the same as ND.
So Coach Kelly will run slightly less than Weis in his tempo-based spread. So the tempo will be different, but the mix will largely be the same: ND will be a relatively pass-happy offense next year when compared to other teams, but should be fairly balanced on an absolute basis.
By OldAlum May 24, 2010 - 3:58 pm
run/pass/times per game/percent, etc. etc. etc.
Bottom line, get an effective offensive line and you can do whatever you want.
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By SDI May 24, 2010 - 4:00 pm
It will be interesting to see how those numbers look this year. I wouldn’t be surprised if Kelly runs a little more with ND. Inexperienced QB, stable of talented running backs, bad weather and crappy field conditions at ND late in the season, and guys still learning all the facets of the spread passing game might make the ratio tilt a little more towards the run this year.
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By Trey May 24, 2010 - 9:34 pm
I think playcalling balance in CFB is a bit overrated. A top(debatable) team like ND can guarantee they will have a very exploitable matchup somewhere on the field in every gm. If it happens to be a 5-7 CB with a 4.7 40…pass all over his sorry butt. IMO, college teams cant overcome those weaknesses like NFL can, so being crafty, secretive, balanced with calls is not so portant. Dominate the line and exploit the opponent.
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By GB May 25, 2010 - 4:04 am
I think one reason it seemed that ND passed so much is because the YPA was much greater than the running YPC.
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By GB May 25, 2010 - 4:08 am
I follow this now that BGS is gone. I like the number analysis. It is similar to what BGS did.
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By OldAlum May 25, 2010 - 5:41 am
I miss BGS too, but this blog is better.
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By OderName May 25, 2010 - 7:47 am
I agree with OldAlum. I never even played high school football (one of two regrets in my life), much less college, but I understand the game to a pretty good extent.
I’ve become increasingly convinced that, especially in college, everything is built from the foundation of the O-Line and D-Line. If your O-Line is strong, even a crappy QB can get enough time to find an open receiver, and even a crappy RB will get yards when the O-Line pushes the D-Line back 2-3 yards. A great D-Line will cover for crappy DB’s by pressuring the QB to make poor throws, and mediocre LB’s can still make stops if the D-Line is plugging most of the gaps.
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By the Biscuit May 25, 2010 - 11:46 am
I agree that the lines are extremely important, and building solid units on both sides is a huge key to building a winning program. BUT, I dont think one can dismiss play-calling/game mgt/etc entirely. Just having solid lines will help a lot – heck, it may be a majority of what drives Ws (who knows how to quantify this stuff), but there will be no NCs with bad play-calling (see: Weis vs Michigan last year) or bad in-game situational mgmt.
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By NDJimmy May 25, 2010 - 9:22 pm
OL is the most important unit in football.
Irony is one of the facets that makes football my favorite sport. The guys that do more work, have to be intelligent and work as a team, know all the plays, all the blocking assignments, are not the ones you see in the highlights on SportsCenter. QB, RB & WR don’t make those plays without the OL.
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By valpodoc May 26, 2010 - 4:23 pm
Nice piece. Enjoyed the numbers. Expect a different team this fall. Kelly has spent considerable capital on “team building.” I expect OL, DL and RB to significantly improve because of this.
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