Let’s Get that W
The Biscuit - 2:06 pm
I don’t know if Weis will be our coach much longer, and I know it’s ‘exciting’ (I actually think it’s the worst thing in the world) to have another coaching search because, well, maybe this will be THE ONE, right? Right???? But let’s not all get lost on the next step when the current step isn’t yet concluded, and very much in doubt.
Charlie Weis is still our coach. From the interviews this week, the kids are still behind him. They all came here to play for Weis, and they’re ready to throw down to support the guy. Swarbrick is still behind him, at least publicly (though you have to assume the due diligence is underway just in case we crap the bed to close out the season). The fans? Alums? Another story. And I get it, I’m with ya’ll.
But nothing makes me more sick than the ‘ND fan’ that’s hoping we lose and lose big so we can move on with the coaching search. You know who you are out there, and there are a lot of you.
This team can still have a good year. It’s not going to be what we all expected, or what we wanted, and it won’t be a team living up to its potential, but a 9-3 regular season is serious progress from 3-9 two years ago, and will get us into a decent bowl. It will keep our momentum going with recruits and (gasp!) is likely to keep Weis around.
In fact, the only results that pretty much guarantee a firing are a 6-6 or a 7-5 finish. 9-3 and he’s almost sure to be around for another year. 8-4 probably depends on how that final loss goes down (e.g. tight, last minute loss to top-ranked Pitt, vs stink-bomb loss at home to UCONN ala Syracuse last year).
The chances of winning out aren’t great given our issues on defense, maybe 10%. Chances of dropping just one are decent, probably 35%. Chances of losing to both Pitt and Stanford are decent too, probably 45%. Chances of dropping all 3? 10%. Yeah, I’m just eye-balling this, but that means we have a 45% chance at having Weis around for another year assuming Swarbrick gives him one more shot at 8-4 (and I’m guessing he will). Even if you assume I’m way off and we’re much more likely to drop 2, there’s still probably a 30% chance that we win out or only drop 1. ~1 in 3 isn’t all that unlikely folks.
So unless you’re rooting for losses, don’t just assume that the change will happen. There’s a decent chance it won’t.
At this point, I don’t know anyone that can openly support Charlie. Not with the current body of work. But I’m really, really, really pulling for a 9-3 final record and a bowl-win. Because no matter what, I want ND to win. I’d take that 10% any day.
Go Irish. Beat Pitt.
Mark
I want us to win out so badly it hurts. Clearly as others have pointed out, my blood pressure is rising. Since ND’s loss to Navy my left eye has this twitch. I’m like Costanza after the pulp was shot into my eye.
I’m physically upset by this losing. I hope the players/coaches are only focused on beating Pittsburgh.
Go Irish, beat Panthers.
P.S. I hate Dave Wannstache with the fire of 1,000 suns. I don’t even like the Bears or Dolphins, I just think he’s like Matt Millen. Every time I see him I think “Someone is still paying this guy.”
November 13, 2009 at 2:25 pmtorquemada
“This team can still have a good year.”
- perhaps you were away, but this team lost to Navy.
November 13, 2009 at 6:37 pmThe Biscuit
so you’re saying 9-3 with a loss to Navy is a bad year? you realize that 9-3 is good regardless, don’t you? it’s not great, it’s not good enough, but it’s certainly not a bad year is it? i contend that 9-3 is a good year, yes, even with a lost to 7-3, bowl-bound navy.
November 13, 2009 at 6:47 pmMichael Homula
I know this won’t be popular but I am still behind Charlie. Sure, I am EXTREMELY disappointed in many things related directly to his coaching, play calling, leadership etc. All that said he has done an outstanding job recruiting, he is ND man, he is committed to getting us back to where we want to go, the players and coaches are behind him (yes, I have personal first hand knowledge of this)and anyone with half an ounce of football knowledge knew that 2010 was our chance to make a run (provided Clausen is back which is in doubt I know).
All that said I literally puked in my mouth when we lost to Navy and the loss to Michigan was bad play calling and clock management no doubt about it. I still do believe we win tomorrow night. Beating a top 15 team on their turf will do wonders for our street cred and put us into a nice position to run the table. I believe we will win out, go 9-3, play in a good bowl game, win more recruiting battles and stare into the face of a run for a national championship next year.
Maybe I am drinking the Kool-Aid but I really believe in Charlie and what he has been building. Remember what a shambles our program was in when he arrived and where we are today. The arrow is still pointing up Irish fans.
November 13, 2009 at 10:09 pmSDI
Michael–thanks for the dose of optimism. It’s been in short supply lately. Despite all the negativity there are still a lot of ND fans that are hoping you are right, it’s just really, really hard to stay positive when you start to look at the numbers–I won’t bother reciting them here, I’m sure you already know they aren’t pretty. When ND doesn’t improve, or only improve in very small amounts for three years running, at some point you have to give up hope. We’ll see what happens. I think it’s the bottom of the 9th with two outs and two strikes against Charlie. He could still rally, but the margin for error is effectively zero.
November 13, 2009 at 10:29 pmTBoneND
At this point in the schedule I am still Behind Charlie for two reasons:
November 14, 2009 at 12:00 pm1. The fight displayed by this team;
a. The developement of JC.
2. SOS Sagarin has the Irish at the 26th most difficult schedule.
By comparison Pitt has the 8-1 record based on the 70th best schedule and Navy at 7-3 has the 53rd.
Others on our schedule:
USC 7-2 sos 7th
Stanford 6-3 sos 15th
Go IRISH!!
Matt '09
Biscuit,
What happens (in your opinion) if we win out in typical close fashion then get blown out in the bowl game?
November 14, 2009 at 7:12 pmDJ
Yes, Biscuit. A 9-3 season with a loss to Navy is a bad year. An 8-4 season with a loss to Navy is even worse…
November 15, 2009 at 4:34 amThe Biscuit
Matt, I think CW would’ve been around for another year at 9-3, regardless of a bowl blowout loss. I don’t think he has much life left after an ugly loss to Pitt where we didnt really try for a half on offense, and we looked sloppy throughout. I think it’s very unlikely he’ll be back at this point. DJ, I dont think 9-3 is a bad year. It’s not great, but it’s not close to bad. 3-9 is bad.
November 16, 2009 at 12:07 amGeorgiaDomer (formerly Shoutboxx, LLC)
Biscuit, I am with you all the way on the spirit of this post, even as I sit here on Monday morning squinting in the harsh light of another loss. Its never right to root against the team. Ulterior agendas be damned, I say; no matter how you feel about Weis, the kids have worked hard and I always want to see them win, especially Clausen.
That being said, I’m also with you on where things stand right now. I can easily see us losing the next two, although I certainly hope we don’t. I see Weiss probably getting the heave-ho no matter what, but the one thing that might save him would be to win the next two weeks AND convincingly beat Stanford (I’m not sure close, last-minute victories will do the trick at this point, though they might).
Its almost impossible for me to imagine that happening. But although his overly aggressive play-calling in odd situations has annoyed me to no end in the past, I think at this point Charlie might as well throw caution to the wind and come out swinging the next two weeks (or at a minimum, against Stanford). If he’s going to go down, he might as well go down fighting, and if it pays off he might save his job yet.
Michael, I get where you’re coming from on this, but at the end of the day, I can’t help feeling he’s done a great job recruiting but can’t seem to put it together on the field, and I don’t think that’s going to change. I think like a lot of fans, I could probably get past our current record if I didn’t have the uneasy feeling that we could have lost 3 – 4 more games if things had gone differently. At the end of the day, this team is too talented to have been playing things this close all year; I have to lay the blame for that on the coaching, not the players, and the buck for that has to stop with Charlie.
Its true we’re much improved from 3 – 9 two years ago, but that just begs the question — how in the hell did we end up 3 – 9 to begin with? The lion’s share of the blame may belong to Willingham, but given that Charlie’s teams seem to consistently equal less than the sum of their parts, in retrospect I’m left thinking things were worse that year than they should have been.
He’s a good guy, but it just hasn’t worked out. If he gets one more year, I won’t be upset, and if he does, nothing would make me happier than if he came back and proved me wrong next year; but at this point, my preference would be that they let him go and we start over.
November 16, 2009 at 12:47 pm