As widely published, Golden Tate has made the short list for the Best WR Biletnikoff Award and Jimmy the short list for Best QB O’Brien Award.

Both guys should lead for these awards right now. Let’s take a look at the lists, and stats, along with SOS (general reading of each candidates’ competition) and team performance thus far to get a read on where everyone stands.

O’Brien List

Jimmy should have a huge lead at this point in the season for Best QB. Course, using logic isn’t typically the way these things work, but it’s what should be going on when you look at team performance vs. relative SOS and QB stats. To do this across teams, I created a combined score based on ranking within the 15 candidates for the O’Brien award. This score equally weights record rank and SOS rank (vs other players’ teams’ SOS). I also included QB Rating, Yards, YPC and TD/Int ratio – I ranked all the QB candidates on all of these, and then averaged the rankings. Jimmy comes out #1, and it’s not really that close.

As you can see, among the 15 Finalists for the award, Jimmy comes out as #1, 2 or 3 on all the individual stats on the board. Because team somehow seems to matter in individaul awards now-a-days, I included a team metric here as a factor, and this drags Jimmy down a lot. ND’s 5-2 record hurts us, giving Jimmy a rank of 9 out of 15. #2 on QB Rating, #3 on Yards, #1 on TD/INT ratio (and that ratio is 8 to 1 – #2 rank on this metric is Case Keenum at 5 to 1), and #3 on YPA. Clausen dominates this group in stats. He should be favorite for the award just based on this. But take into account that he’s played against the 5th toughest SOS among the candidates, and without his #1 WR Floyd, and they should just give it to him now.

Biletnikoff List

Golden Tate leads for the Best WR award as well.

I used the same methodology here, but looked at Yards, YPC and TDs as the individual stats.

Golden is churning out crazy stats too, against the 17th most difficult Sked in the country according to Sagarin. Tate is 2nd on the list in Yards, 4th in YPC, and 2nd in TDs. When you average across these and his team stats (which again bring him down), he averages a ranking of 3.3, a full place ahead of the #2 candidate Vincent Brown of SDSU. And if a guy with the name Golden, with crazy stats, at ND in a prolific offense can’t win this award over an SDSU player, it ain’t never gonna happen. Golden should take this down if he keeps up this pace.

Conclusion

Our players rule.

Caveat: I know this isn’t perfect. I should’ve looked up Pass D rankings rather than SOS, etc etc. But I just wanted to take a look and see if there’s a legit argument that Clausen and Tate should be leading candidates for the awards at this point in the year, without taking 9 years to find the perfect metrics buried somewhere on the internets where I can’t find them quickly. So, sure, this is directional. But these directions point to our ND boys taking home some hardware post-season, assuming consistent performance in the 2nd half of the year.

There is.

Go Irish.

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One Foot Down threw down the questions this week as we look forward to a game played at night in unfamiliar territory on Halloween. Spooky. Hey, everybody, guess what Biscuit once dressed as for Halloween when we were in college. Hint: He was entirely green.

1. The 7-4-1 scheduling model has been the subject of much heated debate amongst Irish fans since it was first announced back in 2006. This week the Fighting Irish will play the first neutral site “barnstorming game” in said model so now is as good of a time as any to weigh in on the controversial subject. What do you think about a) 7-4-1 as a whole, b) the neutral site/ barnstorming game in general and c) specifically playing Washington State in San Antonio.

   A) I think it’s not only un-Notre Dame. It’s un-American. b) This is only a neutral site game. It is most decidedly not a “barnstorming” game. Look up the word in the dictionary. Barnstorming requires theatrics. Barnstorming requires hype. This game doesn’t have theatrics or hype. It’s just a home game for the Irish where both teams have to make adjustments to their academic schedules in order to play. It’s just a dumb pain in the rear, and C) it’s against Washington State! In Texas! Hey, let’s go play the Japanese National team in Prague next!

2. I have personally had this game circled on the schedule for quite some time as the one “sure thing.” After the last few games I have really been looking forward to a drama free victory. As luck would have it I started looking at the Cougars more closely this morning and it appears that freshman quarterback Jeff Tuel went 28 of 42 for 354 yards and 2 TD’s in a losing effort against Cal over the weekend. With the Irish secondary still struggling to get it together what are the chances that yet another freshman signal caller makes this one way more interesting than it should be on Saturday night in San Antonio?

   Well, that depends. Notice the move of Kyle McCarthy to the starting Free Safety this weekend? Yep. That’s right. That’s not a typo in the depth chart. One of the surest tacklers on the team wont be creeping up to the line of scrimmage to help shut down the run anymore. But does that mean our woes in making sure Irish DBs are in the right place against the passing game will come to an end? Should this move work, look for the Irish DBs to look much, much better – not just against WSU, but for the remainder of the season. But pray it wont come to the humiliating detriment of the relatively strong Irish rush defense. That said, I think the coaches had to make this move. You either do it against the 116th ranked rushing offense in the country, and make it work, or the season is lost. Mark it: If this experiment looks like it’s not working, the Irish are in for 2 more losses this season. Anyway, to answer the original question: No. This QB wont get much done against the Irish.

3. Assuming that the Fighting Irish are able to take care of business and put this one away early what non-starters would you most like to see get some reps this week? Why?

   I want to see more of the linebackers who are waiting in the wings. I want to see what promise next year holds for that group whether or not T’eo takes his mission.

4. With the game being played on Halloween Night chances are that if you are not traveling to San Antonio you most likely have a scheduling conflict. Whether you are supposed to be at a party dressed as Fat Elvis, taking your kids trick-or-treating or just dealing with your doorbell ringing nonstop how do you plan to watch the game? If you are going what are you most looking forward to?

   I have a toddler, and after she started to yell and point at a television anytime she sees anyone playing football on it, I’ve stopped watching the games as they happen with such an active interest. I’ll be quite happy to answer the door while wearing my t-shirt that says, “This is my scary costume,” and hand out candy to the kiddies while intermittently checking on the score. Then once all is said and done, all the candy should be gone, and I’ll watch the entire thing dispassionately via the DVR. My heart will thank me.

5. Trick or Treat? Predictions please.

   Trick. We’ve been looking for the absolution of Charlie Weis since week 1 and haven’t found it. Why start now? WSU is probably the weakest team in a BCS conference this year. No good will come of this game. I predict an injury to a key player that will make us all hate that we played freaking WSU in freaking San Antonio. And I predict the Irish will win but wont reach 40 points.

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Cah-caw Cah-caw!!!

I actually liked this movie as a Saturday-TNT-and-nothing-else-is-on-distraction. BK will berate me for it, I don’t care.

But this really just a run-down of stories. I’ve been off working to actually make some money, so I haven’t had a chance to post much, and I’m just too lazy to do this all separately, so here we go.

BC Bitches

What a whining little baby. Gunnell has a career day against a horrible pass D, and Clausen wants to shake hands, and he cries about it. Little Girl, you lost. Get over it. Punk.

Clausen on the incident:

“To be honest I was just going up to him to say he’s a heck of a receiver and if you saw out there, he was making plays left and right, and he’s a real good talent. I was just going to say good game to him, and he was just a little frustrated I guess. I was just trying to say good game to him.”

Clausen shouldn’t have pushed him, but Gunnell shouldn’t be getting in a dude’s face after a loss either.

More Smoke. More Smoke. Mooooore Smoke.

Not surprising at all, in any way, but RR is under investigation. Least shocking news ever. This guy is a scumbag, plain and simple. Perfect for Michigan. Which Sucks.

Of course, this means literally nothing as USC has proven time and again.

Givonanni is not an Irish Name, but He is 100% Irish

Love bringing in another solid, talented at halfback, to pair with Roberson in this class.

He also adds another dimension as a committed player, as he can help recruit a few other high-priority guys for ND in Linder, Riggs and Joyner, teammates of his at Aquinas. Bringing in 2 or 3 of those guys would be HEE-UGE.

This wraps up RB recruiting for the year after a decent class last year. Spots are filling up quick, as ND has 17 – but we can take up to 27 with EE’s and still be under the schollie limit. Hoping that we get close to that. With a solid finish to the season, it should happen. Another good article on “Gio”, highlighting his character and grades. Looks like a ND guy through and through.

ND’s Defense Improves. Kinda.

The pass D is still horrible. I’m not sure how many times BC converted on 4th and 8, but it felt like 9 out of 10 last week. But the D stymied a solid BC running game, and came up with big INTs when most needed.

Still 100% confusing is the play of Harrison Smith. A great talent, and seemingly smart Safety, dude was burned left right up and down last week, and on most of the plays it was 100% mental. You can just see the guy thinking, hestitating, starting in the wrong direction and then it’s too late. Something needs fixed here, and moves are in place. Smith has been dropped to 2nd string, after a move to SAM LB, with Fleming. (Yeah, I know it says co-starter, but who really believes that?) In the mean time, McCarthy the Elder moves to Free Safety from Strong, with McCarthy they Younger backing him up, and Sergio Brown takes over SS. Brown is athletic as hell and made some plays Saturday. While I liked Kyle at Strong, it makes sense to get the more experienced guy in the FS position, and hopefully it won’t hurt his performance. Since he’s been so freaking dependable, I doubt it will. And really, it’s not like things could get much worse back there.

Lost in His Losing and Attitude Perceptions is the Fact that Weis is a Nice Guy.

Weis doesn’t have to befriend a kid with cancer. He doesn’t have to pass right. He doesn’t have to start Hannah & Friends. He doesn’t have to do any of this stuff. But he does. He’s not an amazing coach, and he’s gruff with the media, but deep down Weis is a good dude. His friendship with Herzlich is another example of this, and it was nice to see the kid get an honorary jersey on Saturday. Classy, unlike Gunnell.

The Floydinator.

My guess is he’s back a week from Saturday. Sweet.

Go Irish!

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The Irish are now 3-1 against streaks in the last 365 days. They’ve defeated the bowl game losing streak. They’ve defeated the MSU at home losing streak. And they’ve defeated the BC losing streak; the worst streak of them all. Sure, they came up at least one pass short of killing off the Losing to SC streak, but that’s still pretty solid work. Had a new HC replaced Weis after the 2008 season, then the media would be heralding those streak-killing performances as proof positive that Notre Dame is now, for real, on a “Return to Glory.” Anyway, now it’s time to kill another streak: The failure to score 40 or more points in a regulation regular-season game.

Thanks to the excellent George Macor ND Football Database, we find it’s been nearly three calendar years since the Irish put up 40 points on an opponent within 4 quarters of regular season football. The last time ND accomplished this was in November of 2006 against Army. That’s astonishing when you consider that, in Weis’ first 2 years at ND, the Irish scored 40 or more points 8 times.

And what an excellent week to get back in the habit! WSU currently ranks 119th in total defense and 111th in total offense. The Irish should be scoring so many points so often, that by the end of the game, we’ll need to look up data about the last time the Irish scored 60. (It ain’t happened since Holtz.)

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Click the link below to read all of last week’s Tweetings…

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When the news first broke about Notre Dame playing Western Michigan, I wasn’t too upset. It wasn’t officially announced by Notre Dame, yet, so we hadn’t had a chance to hear from Jack Swarbrick on the matter. I figured there were many mitigating circumstances around the situation.

But then Jack Swarbrick did discuss the issue, and now I’m not happy.

We had a number of teams working very hard to try to move other games, to get their conference to make concessions in the conference schedule, do whatever. The one that was able to get it all done and get it done with the least complications was Western Michigan.

On its face, that’s a fairly benign statement. But even a moment’s thought causes a great deal of frustration. The quotation means that Western Michigan was “first” to have all their ducks in a row, and Swarbrick just jumped at the chance to fill the hole in the schedule. The quotation also means that Swarbrick didn’t understand what his “nuclear option” was. Western Michigan was his Nuclear Option. Western Michigan was what should have happened had all else failed. We don’t know what other teams among the “number” were “working very hard” to get on ND’s schedule, but when WMU raised their hand and said, “Ooh! Ooh! Oooh,” Swarbrick should have been saying, “Hey. That’s great. We’ll take it into consideration,” and then just kept on waiting for the other teams among that number. By Swarbrick’s own claim, he had options. He just didn’t have the patience, the cool, or the willingness to play to his power position to take advantage of them.

There is hope. There’s a real hope, to which I’ll cling to until the end of the year. At that point, the future schedules for 2011 and 2012 should be finalized. Perhaps this disaster is just a one-time thing, and Jack will resuscitate our faith in him with strong, historically relevant opponents on those schedules. But if Charlie Weis is in desperate search of a “Signature Win,” Jack Swarbrick is now in desperate need of a “Signature Opponent” or two. Or three. The 2010 schedule now features Utah, Tulsa, and Western Michigan all within a 30 day stretch of the calendar. While we fully acknowledge that Utah has had a fine recent history, and Tulsa can even look competent on the field of play, Jack Swarbrick is trying to pull a fast one when he says…

“It reflects a not very sophisticated view of what’s going on out there,” Swarbrick said of any backlash. “Utah is going to be in a BCS bowl this year, in all likelihood. Utah had a number of years where it was in national championship contention and is having another very good year. Two years ago Tulsa had a great year and in a lot of ways is one of the more dangerous teams in country.

Swarbrick either doesn’t want to admit or doesn’t fully understand that in “today’s landscape,” it’s a near craps shoot as to which teams will be good 1 or 2 years from now, so rather than throw darts at a list of the 120 D1 programs in the land to find an opponent who might be decent relative to decades of historical futility, it’s a far finer plan to identify the traditionally solid programs and get them on the schedule. We’re not asking for “top 10″ competition in place of WMU, but perhaps a program that’s made it into the top-25 several times in the last decade would be a good qualification.

There is one other hope to which we’re clinging: That Jack Swarbrick knows all this and just doesn’t feel like now is the time to admit that the WMU game reflects an abject failure on his part. Yes, he was put in a difficult position due to the previous AD and some miscommunication with other programs, and yes it was a difficult challenge, but it’s a challenge he’s failed no matter the spin. We can only hope that in private, off the record, he’s frustrated by this failure, but in public he’s bound by social constraints from proclaiming that the program that just filled a hole on his schedule that desperately needed filling was the absolute worst result he could have achieved short of not filling that hole at all.

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The Heisman race, at least the one that goes on in the media, has become a joke. I don’t know how much the public perception feeds the ‘real’ voters’ opinions, but my guess is that it’s pretty significant. Just like the polls, the pre-season hype almost defines the race, season-long. And it’s just wrong.

Tebow isn’t worried about his stats, he wants wins. Well, gee, that’s great. He should care about wins. But the Heisman is supposed to go to best player. The best player will have great stats. If Tebow’s stats are trending down, he’s not playing as well (and/or, he’s playing against real competition rather than Troy and Southern Podunk U), and that means that his Heisman candidacy should suffer along with that decrease in his quality of play. But does that happen? Not really.

Pre-season, Tebow was a Heisman lock. Returning National Champs, gonna win-out, gotta win the Heisman. No matter how bad his stats get, even if he plays horribly, if the Gators somehow win the BCS, Tebow will win the Heisman. Not because it’s deserved, but because the award is a sham. It’s about the QB/RB on the best team, so long as that player doesn’t blatantly suck, or act in an extremely off-putting way. It’s no longer about the best player in the game. And Tebow is anything but off-putting. He’s a good, quality kid. And UF is winning. Heisman time!

But this year, he shouldn’t even be in the mix, let alone the leader.

At one point, one of ESPN’s analysts said that Tebow was the ‘most inspirational’ player this year. This was his reasoning for putting Tebow #1 in his weekly Heisman ballot. First, WTF does that even mean? “Most inspirational”? And at that point, the toughest game UF had played was against Kentucky. So you’re saying he’s been REALLY inspirational against Troy and Charleson Southern? And even if he was, who cares? If you’re not inspirational at all, but you put up 400 yards, does that count less somehow?

This is just one example, but it’s become clear. The Heisman is literally The Hypeman today. Figure out an angle for talking heads, and off they go.

Ingram, the stud RB from Alabama, and Jimmy have shown the production on the field, in games that mattered. This post isn’t about pushing for Jimmy to win. I think he had his shot to lock it up Saturday, and 3 incomplete passes in the end-zone later, his chances are slim to none. But assuming that the rest of the season plays out similarly to the season thus-far, Jimmy should take down the award over Tebow – even if UF wins the MNC. Same thing with Ingram. Dude has been amazing. Let’s say they drop a game and don’t make the MNC game – he’d still deserve the award over Tebow. Because individual stats matter in THIS race. Individual performance should determine the result.

But it’s not gonna happen. Not with The Hypeman.

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It’s BC week, and it’s time for another edition of the Irish Blogger Gathering. This week, appropriately, the questions were asked by Brawling Hibernian. Appropriate because every time I think of Boston, I think of fighting. Boston is the town that gave us the start of the Revolutionary War, the setting of The Boondock Saints, and the inspiration for music like this:

1. Coming off a very difficult loss to a rival that has now beaten them eight straight times, Notre Dame faces another that’s beaten them six straight. Can Notre Dame end the losing streak against BC or will the combined weight of the USC loss and recent history against the Eagles be too much to overcome? Explain.

   Absolutely. While BC always seems to give ND the fight of their lives, and, obviously, has owned the series since 2001, even without Michael Floyd, this is by far the most powerful ND offense BC has faced in the last 10 years. And while the BC defense is certainly quite respectable, even without the terrifying Mark Herzlich at LB, it’s nowhere near the powerful unit it once was. (#5 Total Defense in 2008, now #41.) Still, as John Walters has noted, the Irish, under Charlie Weis, have shown a penchant for playing up or, more often, down to their competition. The only thing to fear, for the Irish, are their own competitively screwed up heads.

2. Not unlike Notre Dame’s defense, BC’s offense has been pretty erratic this season. While in their most recent win, they rolled up 480 total yards and scored 52 points; in their two losses, they’ve averaged 109 yards and 11 points. Which BC offense and which ND defense show up on Saturday? Why?

   Well, if there’s a trend to be found among the 2 loss data points for BC, we’re hopeful it has a high correlation to location. All of BC’s wins are at home. Each of BC’s losses – and they were big losses – were on the road. And it seems the biggest part of the BC offense to have taken a nose-dive in the 2 losses was the passing game, which completed just 5 of 21 passes at Clemson and 11 out of 28 at Virginia Tech (between both QBs). In fact, David Shinskie, the expected starter this weekend for BC, completed fewer passes (1) against VT than he threw interceptions (2). But one key aspect of both of those road games that jumps out to me is the nature of the places they occurred. Both VaTech and Clemson are rather loud, raucous places for a visiting team to experience. If ND hopes to find a homefield advantage in this game, well, they’d better hope that Shinskie hasn’t now adjusted to such atmospheres and they’d better hope that the crowd, which may be missing a bunch of students due to the game falling on the tail end of fall break, will be ready to make some noise.

3. Does anyone seem primed to have a Robby Parris-like breakout moment against the Eagles? If so, who is it and why?

   Rumors are flying that Shaq Evans a) has been having fantastic practices of late and b) got sick late last week to the point that the coaches didn’t feel comfortable trying to play him over other guys. Once again, BC is nowhere near as good defending the passe (#49 in Pass Efficiency D) as opposed to the 2008 version (formerly #2). And they’ve not seen a talent set the likes of Golden Tate and Shaq Evans on the field for ND ever (ND didn’t play BC when the Irish had Shark and Stovall destroying defenses in ‘05). Meanwhile, how about a resurrection game for Duval Kamara? Minus the slip, he had a fine game against a much tougher defense last weekend. In particular, one one first-down gaining reception, he drove the defenders a good 4 yards to clear the sticks after the catch. Duval seems to be trying to break through, and that’s always a good first step.

4. It’s been an and up-and-down year for Boston sports. After a strong start, the Red Sox folded in the second half of the year. The Patriots, meanwhile, seem to be on the upswing after a 59-0 dismantling of Tennessee. For their part, Boston College has seemed as though their season could go either way. Ultimately, will the Eagles be the Sox or the Pats?

   I don’t follow pro sports very carefully, but I do know that every time someone talks about why the Patriots have had so much success, they talk about the excellent organizational culture. Perhaps the same thing is at work here, considering BC lost their former starting QB, lost their former HC to one of the more bizarre power-plays we’ve ever seen, and lost their all-world linebacker to a cancer battler, and yet they’re still a fine team. It’s a remarkable accomplishment by… someone. We just don’t know by whom. That said, the 5 wins by BC feature 3 over abysmal competition, 1 OT win over a down Wake Forest, and 1 close win against the reeling Florida State. So they’ve had a bit of help from the schedule. Still, they’re not to be taken lightly.

5. While most Irish fans refer to BC as “Fredo”, tell me to which other cinematic character you would compare the Eagles.

   I’ll give you the entire body of work of actor Bill Pullman. Everyone knows the dude, and yet he’s inexplicably blasé in pretty much ever role he’s ever had. He played the freaking president in Independence Day, where he got to give a monologue that everyone remembers despite their personal tastes, but as recently as last year he appeared in episodes of Law & Order: SVU. S. V. U! But then you see the guy in a film like Bottle Shock, and you can’t believe how good he is at that moment. That’s BC. A bizarrely mediocre program throughout its history that then pulls out these shocking performances seemingly out of nowhere.

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Nobody dreams of being a middle manager. Nobody dreams of driving a Dodge Stratus to the suburbs from their Ikea laden condo – the one they bought for 400K and is now valued at 200K – and then trying to coordinate some destined-to-fail-anyway project dreamed up by executives and being implemented by guys who list their World of Warcraft accomplishments on their resume next to their Microsoft certifications. But the world needs Middle Managers just like the world needs ditch diggers. Luckily for most middle managers, they usually possess some level of ability that could and would be good enough to move up in the world or at least find a more compelling, satisfying role if only they’d live up to their potential. That’s exactly where the Notre Dame football team is today. Last weekend, they got a big hint that their potential might be in the elite class of college football, but they also got a big reminder that they’re still dwelling away in their windowless office, not quite sure how to move up in the world.

John Walters took a look at the Irish’s last 20 games and found some astonishing evidence that the Irish might want to browse the local Barnes and Noble for a few editions of “7 Habits.”

[In] fourteen games, or 70 percent [of the last 20]. In all but one game — the 2008 win versus Purdue — the margin between the two sides was a touchdown or less. In all but two games — Purdue and, one week earlier, Michigan State — the team trailing by a touchdown or less in the fourth quarter had the football. That is to say, in twelve of those fourteen games one fourth-quarter play could have changed the outcome.

What is it that Weis’ favorite New Jersey musician says? “Whoa, oh, livin’ on a prayer!”

The Irish, it so happens, are 8-6 in those games. For every jig-worthy, good-til-the-last-dropped-pass win the past two years against Navy or Washington, there have been mind-numbing losses to Pittsburgh and Syracuse and Michigan. Exciting? Sure. Impressive. Hardly.

Hey, we’ve all talked to the Bobs, and we see what they see: The Irish have a potential for greatness. But thus far, to put it kindly, the Irish haven’t “applied” themselves.

Perhaps it’s confusion born from the last time the Irish were great. Even in Lou Holtz’ day, the Irish seemed to have the likes of Army threatening to win a game. But the funny thing about those teams that should have never beaten Notre Dame back then, they used those wins, oftentimes, to catapult their seasons into the story books. These days, the teams that compete against Notre Dame hardly make it to one of the 84 bowl games in the winter.

Maybe it’s that the Irish have struggled in mediocrity for so long that it’s developed a defeatist culture. Perhaps the Irish players and coaching staff all possess an external locus of control and fully believe that destiny is holding them back from accomplishing their dreams.

Perhaps.

And perhaps it’s about time that the Irish look at the furious comeback last week, where they scored 4 TDs against a defense that only gave up about 1 TD per game in every other game this season and even, momentarily, managed to take that glow out of Pete Carroll’s eyes, and use that to launch themselves to a new career arch; One in which the Irish obliterate the competiton in the first half and throat-stomp the wounded in the 2nd. Maybe it’s time for many of the team to look at the way Manti T’eo plays every down like it’s a mini-war, or the way Golden Tate punctuates every TD with a walk that tells all the alpha dogs on the field that he’s the alpha-f’ing-lion, and decide that if they don’t at least believe right down to the core that they actually can be like that, they can at least fake it.

Now excuse me, but I’ve got some P&L forms to fill out, an annual budget request to complete, my lunch from TGI Friday’s just arrived, and I need to call the auto shop back in regard to an estimate on my Saturn.

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Or, a 25 year old frosh that played minor league baseball for a few years.

But he’ll still easily be the oldest dude playing in the game.

How does BC do it? Even after they graduate EVERYONE, they only play dudes that are 22 and older.

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We’d be horribly remiss if we didn’t mention the most horrible and sad thing to happen this weekend in college football: The death of UConn DB Jasper Howard. He was murdered near the UConn student union the night after a game in which he had a career-high 11 tackles and a forced fumble which he himself recovered.

Randy Edsall pretty well summed up the shock of this terrible moment:

“One of my sons has been taken away,” he said. “There is nothing in my job description that says you have to identify bodies.”

We’re terribly sorry for the loss.

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ND-USC was the perfect showcase for how this team looks: good on offense, horrible on defense. That’s ND all year.

Granted, our offense was stymied in the first half pretty good, but the O caught fire in the second half and put in a solid performance overall. Once again, the D had fits and starts, and moments where we looked good. But too often there were huge gaps in coverage, massive miscommunication, and the inability to make a play.

Let’s look at how USC fared against our D compared to their Non-ND season thus far, and then we’ll do the same for our O against the USC defense. A pretty clear story emerges.

USC Offense vs. ND Defense

Boy, the stats here are ugly. First, ND’s defense gave up 34 points to USC. That’s not great in and of itself. But what’s more disconcerting is that this isn’t some explosive offense from USC. USC’s O has averaged only 29 points this season (against Non-ND competition), with a score of 56 against San Jose State really helping that average (ignoring that 56, USC averages 22 points a contest this year). ND gave up a full TD more than their straight average, and almost 2 more TDs than their 22 points if you ignore SJ State. Not great.

USC’s offense put up 501 total yards against us. That’s over 70 yards more than their average on the year thus far, and USC has played San Jose State and freaking Washington State. ND gave up more yards than WSU. 100 more yards.

And the ND D struggled most mightily against the pass. USC threw for 380 yards. They have averaged only 223 yards/game passing this year outside of ND. 223!!!! ND gave up almost 160 more yards than USC’s average. Ouch.

Our Defense is a mess. Someone please fix it.

ND Offense vs. USC D.

So while the defensive side is struggling, the O is doing a good job this year (obvious, I know). But it’s worth laying out the same stats, as USC has a top-tier D, and our boys hung in there.

On average this year, USC has given up 9 points to non-ND competition. 9!!!! ND put up 27, and almost got to 34. On average, USC has given up only 239 total yards a game. ND went for 367 yards of total production. And USC has averaged giving up 174 passing yards per game. Only 174 against the rest of their schedule, and ND passed for 285.

That’s a pretty solid performance against a really strong defense, even if it was heavily weighted toward the second half.

Our offense is clicking. Again, someone please fix the D.

Please?

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Click below to read last week’s tweets.
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I’ve been mentally writing the obituary for Weis’ tenure at ND for 7 weeks. Frankly I was fully prepared to watch the Nevada offense blow the doors off of Notre Dame Stadium. And then I was fully prepared to watch Michigan clobber the Irish. By the end of that game, I assumed the emotional toll would blitz the Irish against MSU, and after all of that, I figured with a hurt Clausen, ND was going to have a tough time against Purdue. And after Washington beat SC, and I’d gotten enough looks at the Irish tackling capabilities, it seemed clear to me that UW was going to get 2 signature wins in 2009 before Weis even had a chance to claim his. Naturally, the 4-1 record up to that point was a pleasant surprise, but I was disappointed that the program was in such a state that a 4-1 record requiring 3 miracle last-moment wins against far inferior “on paper” talent was a pleasant surprise. Needless to say, carrying that disappointment made it pretty easy to fully suspect that another 31+ point loss to the Trojans was coming our way. Tonight, I’m no longer pleasantly surprised. I’m just confused and unconvinced.

Don’t worry, I’ve still got one foot firmly planted atop the stump of self righteousness and I’m ready to stand up the moment something becomes clear to me, but a comeback from 34-14 to 1 play away from tying a team that has owned Notre Dame for most of the last decade (particularly their defense against our offense) makes the outlook foggy. And it’s made foggier still by the rest of the voices coming down from that stump right now. See, when the masses start group-thinking, I get suspicious. When the masses start getting really loud about that over which they all agree, I get stubborn. Because I’m starting to have just as much doubt in the angry masses as I have in Charlie Weis. Suddenly, the only thing that seems clear is that a lot of people with loud voices feel a need to be right.

Before the game, we heard much about this weekend serving as a refferendum on Charlie Weis. Even I suggested that the 5th time had better be the charm. But people with an inability to go with the flow, bend with the curves and corners, and react as needed make for lousy business partners and worse lovers. And to any rational mind, the results of this weekend are unclear. If that game was to be a referendum, we need a recount. I think I see a few hanging chads.

While I’m still ready to let this season play out and get a better extrapolation for the future of the program, I’m not willing to forgive the unforgivable. This was no moral victory. It was no victory at all. A victory would have clarified things immediately. At least for a week, Charlie Weis would have been “the guy.” And unfortunately for Weis, now he needs to keep things unclear for 6 full weeks. Because if things become clear at all before then, it’ll be to the detriment of Weis. The only way things will get clear before Thanksgiving weekend is if Notre Dame loses another football game, and frankly, I don’t think Weis can allow that.

I’m not suggesting I think or know that another loss would end his tenure immediately. I’m simply saying that another loss may finally be the hit to his armor in reputation and recruiting that kills Weis in the long term. Another loss might snowball in ways we can’t really guess at today. And such unseen ramifications would mean the end to Weis’ bid to succeed in the Notre Dame sense of the word one way or another.

And to think that so much of this frustration was brought on by Weis being magnanimous. After a 3-9 season, Weis should have had the chopping block out and the blood spilling into the St. Joseph river. Instead he held onto dead weight in his staff, and we had a defensive line coach who wasn’t very attractive to defensive line recruits and an offensive line coach who couldn’t work with Weis. Weis’s recent staff moves have been tremendous and tremendously late. And unfortunately, watching the defense, it looks like some of his other staff moves have been tremendous failures. Today the defensive staff features a legendary DC coaching linebackers for, as near as we can tell, the first time in his coaching career. We’ve got another amorphously assigned coach leading the defensive backs unit who we’re not exactly sure fully understands what his DC wants. After 6 games, Notre Dame’s defense is 104th in total defense, a ranking about which a Tenuta lead defense has never even had nightmares. Something’s broken, something’s not working, and… Hey, there goes another wide open tight end for a 30 yard reception on 3rd and 7! Where was I? Ah. Yes. Broken defense. Here everyone was worried about stopping SoCal’s ground game, and instead we watched Belgium, um, er, the defensive backs get bombed to hell. Frankly, it should have been expected. Michigan’s Tate Forcier and MSU’s Kirk Cousins both had their career-best passing days against ND. If ND thought they were going to make SoCal win by passing, SoCal probably thought they were going to make ND show they could stop the pass. Now a half of ND’s opposing QBs thus far have had career-best days. And sure, that’s a bit of spin considering 2 of those guys were true freshmen, but it’s not spin that before this year a Tenuta called defense had never lost to a true freshman.

We’ll reserve our judgement, meaningless as it is anyway. For every absurd, aggravating moment we saw the Irish experience yesterday, there were others that made us stand up and take notice. Yes, Kamara slipped on the final play, but he also powered thru tackles and made key catches through the day. Sure, our defense is prone to leaving tight ends wide open, but Manti T’eo and Brian Smith lead the team in tackles, finally. Our offensive line got owned by 3 and 4 man rushes, giving up 5 sacks on the day, but the Irish only committed 4 penalties and Golden Tate had over 100 yards receiving against arguably the best defense in the country.

One more loss, and we do think things will be pretty clear – to us personally. We can’t even fathom what Jack Swarbrick must be thinking right now. We do feel confident about one thing though: Weis, once again, has painted himself into a corner. He’s done it with outstanding recruiting to get up our hopes. He’s done it with surprisingly successful seasons to raise our expectations. And now he’s done it with a game against an elite program that was just good enough to push the bar up in terms of what he must do in the next 6 weeks. Because it’s apparent that not only has he now assembled a team that doesn’t know how to quit, he’s also assembled a team that should know no limit to its potential. Great coaches raise their teams above their ceiling of potential, and Weis has a lot of work to do just to take them to what should be their floor.

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Figured I’d put the chat in gameday mode since it’s already been a pretty wild day in CFB.

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