(Note: I changed the title of this post because it was annoying me. -dmq)
ND is 3-1. All of the top-5 teams in the current polls are 4-0. And, really, after you're done talking about Florida, Texas, and Alabama, you're done talking about the "Tier 1" teams this year, at least according to most pundits.
I got to thinking about what it means to be undefeated at this point in the season when I read this post by Dr. Saturday questioning whether or not ND and Michigan's relatively decent records are really indicative of high-quality levels of play.
But these aren't really inspiring wins, in general: Notre Dame's three wins are over teams that are 2-5 outside of their losses to the Irish, with losses to Central Michigan, Colorado State and Northern Illinois in that record.
Dr. Saturday makes some valid points. Oh how I yearn for a 10-win record against a schedule featuring teams who otherwise beat everyone they played. You know, like the currently undefeated top-5 of Florida, Texas, Alabama, LSU, and Boise State. Those teams are beating everyone, and the teams they beat otherwise beat everyone they play. They're awesome.
Or not. At least, not so much as you might believe until you do a little digging.
Now, first, I submit that a win against Charleston Southern doesn't count as a win in D1 football. It just doesn't. You can rant and rave all you want, but in this universe, only losses to non-FBS programs count. Wins do nothing for ya.
So, given that all top-5 teams have played 4 games each. Almost all of the opposition of the top-5 have also played 4 games each. Which means almost all of those teams had 3 other opportunities to win a game against a FBS opponent. They may not have chosen to actually play FBS competition on the other weeks, but that's not my problem. No rewards for cupcaking. Anyway, how many wins do you suppose the opponents of the Top-5 teams can claim against FBS opponents, on average?
Less than 5. 4.8, actually.
Florida's opponents have managed 6 wins vs. the FBS. Texas' opponents have won 4. Same with Alabama, and BSU. LSU's opposition has chalked up 6. And let me tell ya, you'd be stunned how often I read the name "Troy" while doing this quick research.
Now, how many wins vs. the FBS has ND's opposition managed? Five.
Granted, style-points count. ND's only got one blow-out of an opponent in 4 attempts. Top-5 teams have blown out the likes of UTEP, Charleston Southern, and North Texas already. And yes, I'm talking quality of all opposition here, regardless of whether ND and/or the top-5 won or loss because the Top-5, obviously, won all of their games. ND had the misfortune of losing to Michigan in the final seconds.
I'm certainly not making the case that ND is top-5 material. I'm not convinced that the Irish are even top-20 material. The Michigan loss irritates me, and, somehow, so do the MSU and Purdue wins. But I do find the actual makeup of the actual top-5 pretty interesting. And pretty unconvincing.
By The Biscuit September 29, 2009 - 10:23 am
This is the danger of pre-season polls. ND wasn’t a great squad in 2006, but we hung around in the Top 10 for a really long time despite those weaknesses being readily apparent. USC dropped a game to FREAKING WASHINGTON (who I dont think is a bad team but it’s still Washington) and then followed that up with a pretty weak game against WSU, and they moved back into the Top 10. It’s all foolish perception. The good thing is, that 12 games should be enough to at least be close to getting it right. But polls shouldn’t start til Week 5 – all polls.
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By Trey September 29, 2009 - 1:34 pm
My main beef with the polls is BYU and penn state. Especially BYU, how the hell do you get completely blown out at home to a team that the next week proves they have no business in the top 25?! How does that happen, yet nd gets totally jobbed by officiating and barely loses a road rivalry game and we’re still out?
And on penn state, they got exposed last week against a similarly weak team, but since they were waaay overrated goin in, they still stay top 25?
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By The Biscuit September 29, 2009 - 1:47 pm
Trey, I don’t know if we deserve to be Top 25 right now. But I agree the inconsistency is just weird. But that’s what you get when you have a bunch of people that dont watch games just throwing stuff down on paper, and taking the average.
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By Ska September 29, 2009 - 6:28 pm
The skunkbear refs are at least consistent. These guys must really be putting a lot of money on the games they call. Yes b11 refs are terrible. But skunkbear refs are worse. IU got screwed by the skunk refs. ND should not feel that they were singled out by the b11. p10 refs are coming to ND for the next two games. They generally suck.
ND needs to learn to outplay bad refs.
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By The Biscuit September 29, 2009 - 6:35 pm
Ska, you’re back! You’ve been MIA. Good to have you.
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By domer.mq September 29, 2009 - 8:07 pm
Ska,
If anything, my conspiracy theorist says the B11 is just trying to ensure a “marquee match up” of tOSU and UM. That means also making sure ND wins as much as they can make them win after the UM game. Thus 13 penalties on Purdue. The B11 needs ND to be good now that the B11 made sure that their top squad beat ND. (I’ve got plenty of tinfoil, thanks.)
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By Burbank Steve September 29, 2009 - 9:29 pm
Domer.mq – I’m right with you on the make-up calls @ Purdue as apologies for the UM stitch-up. I wouldn’t say this outside friendly company, but we wouldn’t have beaten the zzzzzzzzzzzzz-crew without a little officiating incompetence going our way for once. Whether this was deliberate or mere law of averages starting to even out the stinky calls over the course of a number of games, that’s not for me to say (I’ll leave that to the conspiracy theorists), but I’ve noticed the ND boards and websites have been “werry werry qwiet” on the subject of our favorable calls on Saturday. I should “Boiler Up” and go check out the Purdue sites to see what they’re saying, but I’d just fall asleep and stamp QWERTY in mirror-writing on my forehead.
There, I’ve said it. My soul is purged.
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By tjak September 30, 2009 - 12:03 am
The polls are a joke and should not be used till game six. We need a play-off system and will never get it because conferences rule revenue intake. Again it is a joke that our narrow escape at perdue is derided and the cupcake games of the “superpowers” are celebrated. I am convinced that the Irish will never win a National Championship unless they are 12-0; and even then our victories over schools like Navy that almost beat the mighty ohio state or over usc (they must have had an off year)will be discounted, while the SEC’s victories over the troys and charlestons will be perpetually awe-inspiring. Long live the 2 loss lsu tigers.
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By ecath October 1, 2009 - 2:07 pm
Careful Trey, don’t go calling Michigan a rivalry when we have been told time and time again that ND’s only rival is USC.
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By trey October 1, 2009 - 8:34 pm
ecath, that’s Biscuit’s opinion. I happen to disagree and he’s also mentioned he’s open to people calling Mich a rival too, as I do.
I totally agree with him, though, that no one else is. These eSpn rivalries don’t do it for me.
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By The Biscuit October 2, 2009 - 11:00 am
ecath, i hear you. and i get the argument for Mich. i categorize them as the enemy, not our rival. but it’s semantics really. but, would you state that Purdue, MSU, BC and Navy are also ND’s rivals? and if so, whats the defn of a rival? doesn’t it lose it’s ‘specialness’ if there are so many? i know the debate got derailed by lurkers spewing BS all over the place here, but i think it’s a legit discussion.
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By ecath October 2, 2009 - 11:46 am
I think Navy was at one time a rival but that seems to have faded. Sure, ND plays Navy every year but that doesn’t make it a rivalry, for 40 years it was a joke. I don’t think a rivalry has to be even, especially in the short term, but 40 straight losses kind of kills a rivalry.
BC had some huge upsets, especially 1993, but just because you hate someone doesn’t make them a rival, revenge is one thing, rivalry is another.
I am torn about Purdue. ND has played them since 1898, 81 times, every year since 1949 and over the past 12 years it is almost even in wins and losses. I think if Purdue had gotten over that top 20-25 hump in the early part of this decade when they looked to be getting stronger and was consistently in the top 15 then it might be a stronger rivalry, but there could be something there. If this was a conference mathc-up I think it would be a huge rivalry.
Who cares about MSU.
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By The Biscuit October 2, 2009 - 12:30 pm
So you’re rational about it too. Thanks.
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By Mick October 5, 2009 - 3:58 pm
ND is not top 25 material, they are getting better but the db’s are killing us. 12 plays so far off of the receiver that they get a first down before he even makes contact, Rashon McNeil #2 has never improved and Darrin Walls stinks as well. If we were to play a top 5 team we would lose by 2 tds at least…..I just hope that they get some top athletes for the secondary or Claussen’s senior year will be all about trying to win a Heisman and nothing else…..
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