Michigan Week from Maize and Blue Colored Fauxkleys

Regular readers know that one of our, um, original regular readers (and an old friend of mine), DeepTeaKup, is a Michigan fan (and out of respect for him, I'll refrain from our usual "(sucks!)" concatenation to the "Michigan" string on this post). He's no regular Michigan fan. He actually graduated college, he actually played some football, he actually raises his children with an appreciation for proper dental hygiene, and he hails from Canada. So if you can't say anything nice about him or this post, at least know that he appreciates a good plate of poutine. That and he helped yours truly survive months in the badlands known as Detroit once. If it weren't for DTK, there'd be no HLS because the natives would have smoked me and turned me into jerky before HLS was ever conceived. Did you know Cormac McCarthy's "The Road" is actually about Utica, MI?

Here, DTK once again gives us his annual preview of the Michigan squad (we've lost count of these as well, DTK, but thanks for doing it.). - DMQ

First of all let me say what an honor it is to be asked back for a fourth (or is it third, have I done four previews and have three kids or is it the other way around) annual Michigan preview for domer, Biscuit and all the loyal HLS readers out there.

The second year of the RichRod era opened in grand style last week with a dominating victory over what was supposed to be an upper-tier MAC team. While it may be tempting for many Michigan fans to revise their outlook on the season based on this victory, this is young team that still has some flaws. That being said, I don’t think I’ve ever felt so good about an opening season victory over a cupcake. I guess all the extra practice is starting to pay some dividends.

I am having a tough time getting a feel for this week’s matchup in terms of how well UM matches up with this ND squad. I think on both sides there are some potential serious mismatches and this has the potential to be a very exciting game, which hasn’t really happened a lot since this series was renewed. With that said, on to the preview.

Offense:

Quarterback: What a difference a year (and two new QB’s) makes. This was the second most pleasant surprise for me on Saturday. Tate Forcier looked poised beyond his years on Saturday, directing traffic, calling plays at the line, and just looking like a true leader out there. He seems to thrive when the play breaks down and picks his rushing opportunities well. Prevailing logic would be for ND to blitz and try to pressure him but I honestly think ND would be better off trying to disguise coverages and messing up his reads on obvious passing downs.

First prediction, at about the 8 minute mark of the second quarter ND fans will be tired of hearing about Denard “Shoelace” Robinson’s footwear securing habits. That being said, this kid has NFL speed and pretty good arm strength but I can see how he only completed like 45% of his passes in high school. Look for formations with him and the Tater on the field at the same time. He will play this week; he has too much speed and athletic ability to keep off the field.

As RichRod promised, Nick Sheridan did play last week, and then proceeded to throw an INT. Barring injury, I would not expect to see him on the field this week.

Running Back: In the world of UM fandom, I am probably committing some type of blasphemy by saying this, but I am not as sold as the rest of the UM blogosphere on the awesomeness of this group. I think for the UM ground game to be effective, Brandon Minor has to play and show the hard running style he showed at the end of last year. Injuries kept him out of the WMU game and have been a problem for him his entire career. If Minor is able to start picking up yards in big chunks, it could open up the offense for the Tater. Carlos Brown will also get his fair share of carries. He does not really break tackles all that well, but does have the speed to be a true home run threat if he can get to the second level. Michael Shaw has also shown flashes, but did not have the most yards against WMU. Still, I liked the way he ran. He read his blocks well and showed a good burst. Vincent Smith racked up a few good YouTube clips in spring ball but is probably a year away. He's very small (170 lbs maybe) but runs “bigger”. Expect to see Kevin Grady in short yardage situations. I still think the DUI was incredibly stupid but I credit him for hanging around even though he never quite panned out the 5 star status coming out of high school.

Receiver: What an interesting group this is turning out to be; very versatile. You have some bigger guys here as well as the more traditional spread slot type receiver. At outside WR, there are three main guys; Junior Hemmingway had a breakout game against WMU, has good speed, size (6’1 225), good hands, and flat out makes plays. He is a matchup problem for ND, I don’t know if ND has anyone who can cover him straight up in man to man coverage. Greg Matthews is a very good possession type receiver with great hands, but I don’t expect him to ever have a stat line like Floyd did against Nevada. Darryl Stonum was recruited by USC and Florida coming out of high school, has sprinters speed and above average strength. He has yet to put it all together on the field in a consistent manner. Only a sophomore, he may still need another year to live up to his potential.

At slot, another pleasant surprise has been the play of Kelvin Grady (Kevin’s younger brother). Since coming over from the basketball team last year, he has shot up the depth chart above some incoming freshmen. Tay Odoms played, made some key blocks but needs to get the ball more against ND. Roy Roundtree, Jeremy Gallon, and Terrance Robinson all have some measure of practice and/or recruiting hype but appear to be below Grady and Odoms on the depth chart.

UM also features two excellent tight ends. RichRod and Calvin Magee are figuring out how to incorporate Kevin Koger and Martell Webb into the spread despite not having a single TE on the WVU roster the last few years of his tenure. I think Koger will become the Tater’s safety blanket in the red zone. At 6’6, with good speed and excellent hands (made a great one handed catch against WMU), I think he will put some real pressure on the ND safeties and LB’s, hopefully preventing them from being able to blitz at will.

O-Line: This is definitely not the typical UM line. Only one guy checks in at over 300 pounds (I guess that ties them with the ND coaching staff, zing!!!), Steve Schilling is probably the only NFL prospect on the line. This unit does seem to function well together though, one thing to watch will be the holding penalties, must have been at least 3 of them last week.

Defense:

Of all the positives to come out of the WMU game, I was happiest with the vastly improved tacking and assignment football played by the UM defense. I credit that to having to practice against the spread as well as the addition of Greg Robinson. Hopefully he kept the same defensive playbook from the Syracuse-ND game last year. I think the D can be above average this year but is only a few injuries away from playing walk-ons at some key positions. UM is placing a premium on speed over size on D, should be an interesting match up with the larger, more physical ND O-Line.

Line: Simply put, I don’t think any team on UM’s schedule is stopping Brandon Graham without keeping a TE in to block. He’s most likely a first round draft pick next year. Mike Martin may also require double teams, absolute beast in the middle of the line. Ryan Van Bergen plays at the other end position, plays within the scheme, and has a great motor but is sort of limited in his upside. If there are any injuries in this group though, UM is in big trouble. The drop off to the backups Segasse (Canadian), Will Campbell (raw true freshman) and a bunch of walk-ons and upper classmen who have yet to accomplish much at UM.

Linebacker: Yet another surprise from last game, Stevie Brown was exceedingly competent at the LB position. He covered well, played run support and tackled extremely well. Obi Ezeh plays in the middle and has not quite lived up to the potential shown as a freshman, but is very capable as long he does not have to cover anyone. Jonas Mouton: I think the lights went on for him this year. I would like to see him blitz the QB more. I think he is a weapon. Craig Roh, another true freshman, plays a sort of hybrid LB/DE role, looked pretty good last week but is probably a year away from being a consistent pass rush threat.

Secondary: This, in my opinion, is where UM and ND wins or loses this game. This is strength on strength, ND’s WR’s against UM’s CB’s. I would expect to see a lot of blitzing from UM so the Donovan Warren/Floyd and BooBoo Cissoko/Tate matchups are huge. This is another area where UM can not afford any injuries, JT Floyd and Justin Turner are not ready for prime time just yet. ND probably has a clear advantage in the matchup against UM’s safeties, Michael Williams and Troy Woolfolk are both first year starters and will get better as the season progresses.

Special Teams: Zoltan Mesko is probably the best punter in the country; I don’t expect ND to do much in the punt return game. Kickoff return worries me a bit, WMU consistently started around the 30 last week, I think ND will break a few here. For all the talent UM has on offense, the return game continues to disappoint me. Greg Matthews will probably return punts, he is a safe option but not a big threat. Kickoff return is hard to gauge, only two returns last week (Stonum and Odoms), I would like to see this improve.

Prediction: Always remember, folks, I never predict a UM loss and if I didn’t do it last year I’m sure as heck not going to call a loss here. I think we’re in for an exciting game here, UM 35 ND 31 in OT. UM holds ND to a FG on the first possession, and then a pass from Forcier to Koger in the back of the end zone wins it for UM.