Given the string of commitments lately, you’d think ND fans would be thrilled. Not what I’ve read… Why? “They’re mostly 3-stars” is the most-cited response.

I think it’s important, though, to look at this class with a little context before coming to the conclusion that these aren’t the type of guys we want/need in this class. There are a number of factors that can go into a 3-star type guy coming on board. In no order of relative importance, they are:

1) Upside from the Staff POV. Let’s face it – the coaching staff knows a lot more about these guys than we do, and we all know the recruiting services can be wrong as well. Yes, on average, you want more 4 and 5 star guys, and I’ll not dispute it. But the staff spends time with these guys – on film, in person, etc – and if they see something in the player that makes him much more likely to turn out 4-star performance with a 3-star rating, they’ll take him. They’ll also happily take 3-star guys from whom they expect 3-star performance? Why? Because our roster would be 1/3 smaller if we didn’t take any 3-star guys, and depth and ST’s are important.

2) Depth. Especially now that the cupboard is no longer Ty-level empty, this becomes a serious reason for extending the offer list and bringing in guys that may not look to be as strong on paper, but with big upside. When you have Jimmy Clausen starting, with a 2-year-experienced 5-star Dayne Crist backing him up, and a solid prospect in Andrew Hendrix at QB, you dont need your 2nd QB in the class to be a 4-star/5-star guy. You bring in a solid guy that can compete and potentially win the job, cuz that’s likely what you’re going to end up with regardless. You look for upside, the attitude, etc, and maybe a somewhat different skill set to complement the other players that will be on the roster. And in 2011, you get the #1 QB in the nation, of course.

3) Numbers. Last year the class was small. It wasn’t short on quality, with 10 4-star+ type guys, but it was relatively small. This year, Weis should take 25+ players to fill out the roster a bit. To do that, you can’t sit and hold out for all the 4 and 5 star guys that are taking their time and seeing what happens with the season. You have to lock in solid players that fall just under the 4-star rating to fill in those numbers.

4) Timing. When you have a “class” of 3 guys (great guys all, but only 3) you don’t restrict things too too much. Now that the class is filling up a bit, the coaches will get more and more selective in offers, and will re-prioritize their recruiting efforts, to bring in more of the 4 and 5-star guys where they have need of that top-tier talent. And trust me, if there’s a 5-star guy that wants to get on board, even if there are 2-3 guys in the class already in that position, ND will have space for him.

With all that, let’s take a look back at the past few years’ recruiting classes. By a fair consensus (other than a few everything-sucks-no-matter-what-only-negative folks), the classes over the last few years have been solid result if not great successes for CW and company, so it’s a pretty good metric to measure this year’s class against.

FYI – I used Rivals’ numbers for all of this. (Why? Bc it was quick. I remain lazy.)

So obviously we’ve gotten pretty close to a ‘quota’ of 3-star players pretty quickly, but that doesn’t mean much when we don’t know how many players will be in the class. If it’s the average 22, then we’re a bit ahead of schedule and will likely end up right around or slightly above the average of the Weis era. If it’s more like 25-27 (which is what I expect/hope for), there’s room for more of the 3-star type to stick to the average of ~37%. Of course, you’d prefer for that percentage to be closer to the 28% or 17% of ‘07 or ‘08 to be a top 5-ish class, but if we end up south of about third, I think we’d all be pretty thrilled, especially with a large class coming in (cuz that means a ton of top studs are in the class).

And that’s not unrealistic at all. ND is in on a ton of really solid 4 and 5-star players. Guys like JR Ferguson (5-star), Michael Dyer (5), Garrison Smith (4), Anthony Barr (4), Dakota Royer (4), Kendall Moore (4), Joshua Shaw(3 but will end up a 4), Dietrich Riley (4), Sean Parker (4), David Amerson (4), Dion Bailey (4), Cody Riggs (4), Tai-ler Jones (4), Louis Nix (4), Corey Cooper (4), Kyle Prater (4), Robert Woods (4), Brandon Linder (4), Matt James (4), and James Stone (4) are all considering or leaning ND, so there is still a TON of upside for this class.

Net-net? I like this class so far, and I expect to see the momentum to slow down a bit after 2-3 more potential commits this summer. A lot of those 4 and 5 star guys listed above will keep an eye on how the team performs in the Fall, they’ll take their officials and check out the gameday atmosphere, and then make their decisions (hopefully Irish) in the Fall. You’ll see a lot more of the 4 and 5 star guys coming in, and a thinning of the 3-star type, as the staff adjusts strategies and priorities to ensure room (again, plenty of open spots – at least 15 probably 17 or 18 – remain) for their top target guys.

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