Comments on: ND Needs to Get A Bit More Draftee http://www.herloyalsons.com/blog/2009/02/28/nd-needs-to-get-a-bit-more-draftee/ The Worst Thing To Ever Happen To ND Football Mon, 06 Feb 2012 20:42:58 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: san diego irish http://www.herloyalsons.com/blog/2009/02/28/nd-needs-to-get-a-bit-more-draftee/comment-page-1/#comment-95261 san diego irish Tue, 03 Mar 2009 17:50:30 +0000 http://www.herloyalsons.com/blog/?p=2943#comment-95261 I was thinking along the same lines as Craig. I could see Young, Wenger and Olsen (is Stewart as senior?) getting a shot in the league if they have a good year. They have the size and the pedigree and one really impressive year plus the Duch's mentoring might be enough to get them drafted. I think the same goes for Aldridge. He wouldn't be the first ND back to have a better pro career than college. I was thinking along the same lines as Craig. I could see Young, Wenger and Olsen (is Stewart as senior?) getting a shot in the league if they have a good year. They have the size and the pedigree and one really impressive year plus the Duch’s mentoring might be enough to get them drafted. I think the same goes for Aldridge. He wouldn’t be the first ND back to have a better pro career than college.

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]]> By: domer.mq http://www.herloyalsons.com/blog/2009/02/28/nd-needs-to-get-a-bit-more-draftee/comment-page-1/#comment-95254 domer.mq Tue, 03 Mar 2009 14:59:14 +0000 http://www.herloyalsons.com/blog/?p=2943#comment-95254 Good question, Craig. I'm sure it makes a difference. I just sort of avoided it because of the HC turnover rate in the last 15 years at ND. But yeah, all else being equal, it certainly seems to have a correlation, at any rate. And I really do think this team has the talent to compete with and beat everyone on the schedule. Seniority, to me, represents 3 things: physical development, mental development, and leadership skill development. That's the only thing I find disconcerting about our 2009 Sr. class. Good question, Craig. I’m sure it makes a difference. I just sort of avoided it because of the HC turnover rate in the last 15 years at ND. But yeah, all else being equal, it certainly seems to have a correlation, at any rate.

And I really do think this team has the talent to compete with and beat everyone on the schedule. Seniority, to me, represents 3 things: physical development, mental development, and leadership skill development. That’s the only thing I find disconcerting about our 2009 Sr. class.

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]]> By: Craig http://www.herloyalsons.com/blog/2009/02/28/nd-needs-to-get-a-bit-more-draftee/comment-page-1/#comment-95217 Craig Tue, 03 Mar 2009 06:48:10 +0000 http://www.herloyalsons.com/blog/?p=2943#comment-95217 What happens if you do a rolling two-year total? That is, in 2005, also credit the 2006 draftees, in 2006 also credit the 2007 draftees? That might give a more accurate read on the amount of contributing talent there is, because you'd figure that many draftees would be significant contributors in their junior and senior season. That makes 2005 look a little more reasonable (10 total between '05 and '06). I hesitate to try to project forward what the '09 (never mind '10) numbers are likely to look like. It's easy to pick out skill position standouts like Floyd, Tate, and Clausen. But what about the offensive line? If Verducci gets things turned around, you'd think that a guy or three from an experienced line will be drafted. No guarantees there, though, as they certainly haven't performed up to that standard to date. What happens if you do a rolling two-year total? That is, in 2005, also credit the 2006 draftees, in 2006 also credit the 2007 draftees? That might give a more accurate read on the amount of contributing talent there is, because you’d figure that many draftees would be significant contributors in their junior and senior season.

That makes 2005 look a little more reasonable (10 total between ’05 and ’06).

I hesitate to try to project forward what the ’09 (never mind ’10) numbers are likely to look like. It’s easy to pick out skill position standouts like Floyd, Tate, and Clausen. But what about the offensive line? If Verducci gets things turned around, you’d think that a guy or three from an experienced line will be drafted. No guarantees there, though, as they certainly haven’t performed up to that standard to date.

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]]> By: domer.mq http://www.herloyalsons.com/blog/2009/02/28/nd-needs-to-get-a-bit-more-draftee/comment-page-1/#comment-95160 domer.mq Mon, 02 Mar 2009 19:10:22 +0000 http://www.herloyalsons.com/blog/?p=2943#comment-95160 It's a fair point, Burbank, and I don't mean to confuse causation with correlation, but I do think it's interesting that the 2005 season only had 3 draftees. Then again, 2006 had 7. All that said, after just 9 regular season wins in the last 2 years, I doubt enough Irish guys could/would boost their stock enough for the 2009 squad to get 5-7 draftees out of it, even with 10 wins. Of course, if somehow ND runs the table, names like Clausen, Tate, Floyd, etc... would show up on various draft boards before those guys made any sort of announcements. It’s a fair point, Burbank, and I don’t mean to confuse causation with correlation, but I do think it’s interesting that the 2005 season only had 3 draftees. Then again, 2006 had 7.

All that said, after just 9 regular season wins in the last 2 years, I doubt enough Irish guys could/would boost their stock enough for the 2009 squad to get 5-7 draftees out of it, even with 10 wins.

Of course, if somehow ND runs the table, names like Clausen, Tate, Floyd, etc… would show up on various draft boards before those guys made any sort of announcements.

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]]> By: The Biscuit http://www.herloyalsons.com/blog/2009/02/28/nd-needs-to-get-a-bit-more-draftee/comment-page-1/#comment-95159 The Biscuit Mon, 02 Mar 2009 19:09:26 +0000 http://www.herloyalsons.com/blog/?p=2943#comment-95159 Steve, those are good questions, but I dont think Domer was saying it's a cause-effect relationship. He's just saying you often see the two move together. Of course you're better when you have more draftees, and you have more draftees when you're better. But looking at this year, we don't have a lot of draftees on the team - so, if we do well, it's a bit of an anamoly. I'm pretty sure that even with a 10/11 win season we wont have 5-6 draftees this year. We might get to 4, maybe... Steve, those are good questions, but I dont think Domer was saying it’s a cause-effect relationship. He’s just saying you often see the two move together. Of course you’re better when you have more draftees, and you have more draftees when you’re better. But looking at this year, we don’t have a lot of draftees on the team – so, if we do well, it’s a bit of an anamoly. I’m pretty sure that even with a 10/11 win season we wont have 5-6 draftees this year. We might get to 4, maybe…

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]]> By: Burbank Steve http://www.herloyalsons.com/blog/2009/02/28/nd-needs-to-get-a-bit-more-draftee/comment-page-1/#comment-95156 Burbank Steve Mon, 02 Mar 2009 18:50:45 +0000 http://www.herloyalsons.com/blog/?p=2943#comment-95156 Ah, but what about cause and effect? A 3-win season produces only 1 draftee because the team isn't very good (or isn't well coached, which essentially means the same thing, the players aren't executing at a high level). A 10-win season produces a higher number of draftees because the team is inherently better. You've scored touchdowns on offense, played appropriate defense and kicked your extra points and field goals. A 10-win team is going to attract more attention from the NFL scouts than the sad-sack 3-win rabble, or Michigan (sucks). So the correlation may be correct, but which one causes the other is still open to question. Would our 10-win season produce 5-6 draftees, or do our 5-6 draftees produce 10 wins for the team? Ah, but what about cause and effect? A 3-win season produces only 1 draftee because the team isn’t very good (or isn’t well coached, which essentially means the same thing, the players aren’t executing at a high level).

A 10-win season produces a higher number of draftees because the team is inherently better. You’ve scored touchdowns on offense, played appropriate defense and kicked your extra points and field goals. A 10-win team is going to attract more attention from the NFL scouts than the sad-sack 3-win rabble, or Michigan (sucks).

So the correlation may be correct, but which one causes the other is still open to question.

Would our 10-win season produce 5-6 draftees, or do our 5-6 draftees produce 10 wins for the team?

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]]> By: san diego irish http://www.herloyalsons.com/blog/2009/02/28/nd-needs-to-get-a-bit-more-draftee/comment-page-1/#comment-95070 san diego irish Mon, 02 Mar 2009 04:31:51 +0000 http://www.herloyalsons.com/blog/?p=2943#comment-95070 got it. That's part of the interesting thing about Weis. Say what you want about 07 and 08, but 05 and 06 were pretty decent coaching jobs and you can't take that away from him. This year will be a little different due to all the talent in the junior and sophomore classes, but still, without a lot of senior leadership, 10 wins would still be quite a coaching accomplishment. got it. That’s part of the interesting thing about Weis. Say what you want about 07 and 08, but 05 and 06 were pretty decent coaching jobs and you can’t take that away from him. This year will be a little different due to all the talent in the junior and sophomore classes, but still, without a lot of senior leadership, 10 wins would still be quite a coaching accomplishment.

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]]> By: domer.mq http://www.herloyalsons.com/blog/2009/02/28/nd-needs-to-get-a-bit-more-draftee/comment-page-1/#comment-95058 domer.mq Mon, 02 Mar 2009 01:37:34 +0000 http://www.herloyalsons.com/blog/?p=2943#comment-95058 I need to think on it more, but looking over the roster, it sure seems like the number will be closer to 0 than 5. So let's just call it 2. That would make the ratio of wins to draftees in a 10+ win season at least 5, which I think would be the 2nd best ratio in 32 years. I'll admit that the stat is one of those "special interest" type things, and it's probably not as important as overall talent and good coaching (probably = definitely here), but dang. That's sort of something, ain't it? The average ratio is 1.75, and Charlie would have to get a 5 or (with 3 draftees) a 3.33 or better? I guess the point is, if they do manage 10+ wins, it's not "all about the talent" at this point. It'll have been a very nice coaching job by the staff, despite the gooey-soft schedule. I need to think on it more, but looking over the roster, it sure seems like the number will be closer to 0 than 5. So let’s just call it 2. That would make the ratio of wins to draftees in a 10+ win season at least 5, which I think would be the 2nd best ratio in 32 years. I’ll admit that the stat is one of those “special interest” type things, and it’s probably not as important as overall talent and good coaching (probably = definitely here), but dang. That’s sort of something, ain’t it? The average ratio is 1.75, and Charlie would have to get a 5 or (with 3 draftees) a 3.33 or better?

I guess the point is, if they do manage 10+ wins, it’s not “all about the talent” at this point. It’ll have been a very nice coaching job by the staff, despite the gooey-soft schedule.

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]]> By: san diego irish http://www.herloyalsons.com/blog/2009/02/28/nd-needs-to-get-a-bit-more-draftee/comment-page-1/#comment-95005 san diego irish Sun, 01 Mar 2009 16:40:04 +0000 http://www.herloyalsons.com/blog/?p=2943#comment-95005 I hate numbers, that's why I went to law school not business school, but I think that this seems to support Biscuit's youth theory. It seems to suggest that until you have a bunch of guys in your senior class that will be playing in the NFL next year, you aren't going to win a whole bunch of games (10 plus). However, one difference between the ND '09 season and some of Davie's teams, and even Weis' teams to date, is that this team will be loaded with kids that will be in the NFL, just not next year. I think that might be considered a variable that this formula doesn't take into account. For example, if you had 20 sophomores and juniors on your team, especially if they have significant playing time, that will end up in the NFL, your team might be talented enough to win 7 plus games, even with only 1 NFL bound senior and have a super high ratio. Is that the point you were making? And are you predicting that ND will have zero NFL bound seniors this year? I hate numbers, that’s why I went to law school not business school, but I think that this seems to support Biscuit’s youth theory. It seems to suggest that until you have a bunch of guys in your senior class that will be playing in the NFL next year, you aren’t going to win a whole bunch of games (10 plus). However, one difference between the ND ’09 season and some of Davie’s teams, and even Weis’ teams to date, is that this team will be loaded with kids that will be in the NFL, just not next year. I think that might be considered a variable that this formula doesn’t take into account. For example, if you had 20 sophomores and juniors on your team, especially if they have significant playing time, that will end up in the NFL, your team might be talented enough to win 7 plus games, even with only 1 NFL bound senior and have a super high ratio. Is that the point you were making? And are you predicting that ND will have zero NFL bound seniors this year?

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