ND Needs to Get A Bit More Draftee
domer.mq
Back in July of 2008, I took a look at correlation between on-field success of every ND team from 1977 through 2007 and the number of players on those rosters who were drafted into the NFL the following year. And after Biscuit corrected me (he has an MBA, you know), I learned that I’d found a pretty fair correlation (.6). In other words, it sure makes winning games at ND a heck of a lot easier when there’s a load of NFL-worthy talent in the more senior classes playing for the Irish.
As we know from our little study (or from just following the Irish at all), in 2007, the Irish only won 3 games while having 4 eventual 2008 NFL draftees on the roster (3 of them in the first 3 rounds). Pretty pathetic. And now in 2008, ND managed 6 regular season wins and 7 wins in total with only 1 likely 2009 NFL draftee on the roster (David Bruton, projected anywhere from the 2nd to 5th round).
Looking back at our old post from July, what strikes me here is that Weis had previously held 2 of the “extreme” records for wins per draftee at ND. 2007 represented the worst showing by a coach in the years surveyed, with just .75 wins per draftee. However, 2005 represented the only “acceptable” season (8+ wins, a debatable term) by any coach with 3 or fewer NFL draftees on the roster. And now he’s tied Bob Davie for another extreme record – total wins per draftee – with 7 wins in 2008/09 against 1 expected 2009 draftee.
Any “record” one shares with Bob Davie is probably best held in light regard, but it is interesting at any rate. Davie achieved his height in the wins-to-draftee metric in his first year, 1997, and at that time we still had no idea of the decade plus of mediocrity in which ND would be mired. Plus Davie had 7 eventual draftees the following year. Do the Irish have 7 likely 2010 draftees on the 2009 roster?
7 wins doesn’t even reach our rather low-hanging bucket of “acceptable,” but it still represents the highest number of wins against the lowest number of draftees in the 31 seasons we’ve studied (The average is 1.75 wins/draftee, and 1 draftee on the roster has only happened 2 other times in 30 seasons – each under Davie). Many Irish fans (and possibly an AD and/or university president) are practically demanding a 10+ win season in 2009. Your thought-experiment for the day: What sort of ratio of wins-to-2010-draftees would that represent? Go ahead and throw your guesses down in the comments. I’ll think on it a bit more and throw mine in there as well, but I’m having trouble dividing by zero.
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9 Comments
I hate numbers, that’s why I went to law school not business school, but I think that this seems to support Biscuit’s youth theory. It seems to suggest that until you have a bunch of guys in your senior class that will be playing in the NFL next year, you aren’t going to win a whole bunch of games (10 plus). However, one difference between the ND ‘09 season and some of Davie’s teams, and even Weis’ teams to date, is that this team will be loaded with kids that will be in the NFL, just not next year. I think that might be considered a variable that this formula doesn’t take into account. For example, if you had 20 sophomores and juniors on your team, especially if they have significant playing time, that will end up in the NFL, your team might be talented enough to win 7 plus games, even with only 1 NFL bound senior and have a super high ratio. Is that the point you were making? And are you predicting that ND will have zero NFL bound seniors this year?
I need to think on it more, but looking over the roster, it sure seems like the number will be closer to 0 than 5. So let’s just call it 2. That would make the ratio of wins to draftees in a 10+ win season at least 5, which I think would be the 2nd best ratio in 32 years. I’ll admit that the stat is one of those “special interest” type things, and it’s probably not as important as overall talent and good coaching (probably = definitely here), but dang. That’s sort of something, ain’t it? The average ratio is 1.75, and Charlie would have to get a 5 or (with 3 draftees) a 3.33 or better?
I guess the point is, if they do manage 10+ wins, it’s not “all about the talent” at this point. It’ll have been a very nice coaching job by the staff, despite the gooey-soft schedule.
got it. That’s part of the interesting thing about Weis. Say what you want about 07 and 08, but 05 and 06 were pretty decent coaching jobs and you can’t take that away from him. This year will be a little different due to all the talent in the junior and sophomore classes, but still, without a lot of senior leadership, 10 wins would still be quite a coaching accomplishment.
Ah, but what about cause and effect? A 3-win season produces only 1 draftee because the team isn’t very good (or isn’t well coached, which essentially means the same thing, the players aren’t executing at a high level).
A 10-win season produces a higher number of draftees because the team is inherently better. You’ve scored touchdowns on offense, played appropriate defense and kicked your extra points and field goals. A 10-win team is going to attract more attention from the NFL scouts than the sad-sack 3-win rabble, or Michigan (sucks).
So the correlation may be correct, but which one causes the other is still open to question.
Would our 10-win season produce 5-6 draftees, or do our 5-6 draftees produce 10 wins for the team?
Steve, those are good questions, but I dont think Domer was saying it’s a cause-effect relationship. He’s just saying you often see the two move together. Of course you’re better when you have more draftees, and you have more draftees when you’re better. But looking at this year, we don’t have a lot of draftees on the team – so, if we do well, it’s a bit of an anamoly. I’m pretty sure that even with a 10/11 win season we wont have 5-6 draftees this year. We might get to 4, maybe…
It’s a fair point, Burbank, and I don’t mean to confuse causation with correlation, but I do think it’s interesting that the 2005 season only had 3 draftees. Then again, 2006 had 7.
All that said, after just 9 regular season wins in the last 2 years, I doubt enough Irish guys could/would boost their stock enough for the 2009 squad to get 5-7 draftees out of it, even with 10 wins.
Of course, if somehow ND runs the table, names like Clausen, Tate, Floyd, etc… would show up on various draft boards before those guys made any sort of announcements.
What happens if you do a rolling two-year total? That is, in 2005, also credit the 2006 draftees, in 2006 also credit the 2007 draftees? That might give a more accurate read on the amount of contributing talent there is, because you’d figure that many draftees would be significant contributors in their junior and senior season.
That makes 2005 look a little more reasonable (10 total between ‘05 and ‘06).
I hesitate to try to project forward what the ‘09 (never mind ‘10) numbers are likely to look like. It’s easy to pick out skill position standouts like Floyd, Tate, and Clausen. But what about the offensive line? If Verducci gets things turned around, you’d think that a guy or three from an experienced line will be drafted. No guarantees there, though, as they certainly haven’t performed up to that standard to date.
Good question, Craig. I’m sure it makes a difference. I just sort of avoided it because of the HC turnover rate in the last 15 years at ND. But yeah, all else being equal, it certainly seems to have a correlation, at any rate.
And I really do think this team has the talent to compete with and beat everyone on the schedule. Seniority, to me, represents 3 things: physical development, mental development, and leadership skill development. That’s the only thing I find disconcerting about our 2009 Sr. class.
I was thinking along the same lines as Craig. I could see Young, Wenger and Olsen (is Stewart as senior?) getting a shot in the league if they have a good year. They have the size and the pedigree and one really impressive year plus the Duch’s mentoring might be enough to get them drafted. I think the same goes for Aldridge. He wouldn’t be the first ND back to have a better pro career than college.
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