Back in July of 2008, I took a look at correlation between on-field success of every ND team from 1977 through 2007 and the number of players on those rosters who were drafted into the NFL the following year. And after Biscuit corrected me (he has an MBA, you know), I learned that I’d found a pretty fair correlation (.6). In other words, it sure makes winning games at ND a heck of a lot easier when there’s a load of NFL-worthy talent in the more senior classes playing for the Irish.

As we know from our little study (or from just following the Irish at all), in 2007, the Irish only won 3 games while having 4 eventual 2008 NFL draftees on the roster (3 of them in the first 3 rounds). Pretty pathetic. And now in 2008, ND managed 6 regular season wins and 7 wins in total with only 1 likely 2009 NFL draftee on the roster (David Bruton, projected anywhere from the 2nd to 5th round).

Looking back at our old post from July, what strikes me here is that Weis had previously held 2 of the “extreme” records for wins per draftee at ND. 2007 represented the worst showing by a coach in the years surveyed, with just .75 wins per draftee. However, 2005 represented the only “acceptable” season (8+ wins, a debatable term) by any coach with 3 or fewer NFL draftees on the roster. And now he’s tied Bob Davie for another extreme record – total wins per draftee – with 7 wins in 2008/09 against 1 expected 2009 draftee.

Any “record” one shares with Bob Davie is probably best held in light regard, but it is interesting at any rate. Davie achieved his height in the wins-to-draftee metric in his first year, 1997, and at that time we still had no idea of the decade plus of mediocrity in which ND would be mired. Plus Davie had 7 eventual draftees the following year. Do the Irish have 7 likely 2010 draftees on the 2009 roster?

7 wins doesn’t even reach our rather low-hanging bucket of “acceptable,” but it still represents the highest number of wins against the lowest number of draftees in the 31 seasons we’ve studied (The average is 1.75 wins/draftee, and 1 draftee on the roster has only happened 2 other times in 30 seasons – each under Davie). Many Irish fans (and possibly an AD and/or university president) are practically demanding a 10+ win season in 2009. Your thought-experiment for the day: What sort of ratio of wins-to-2010-draftees would that represent? Go ahead and throw your guesses down in the comments. I’ll think on it a bit more and throw mine in there as well, but I’m having trouble dividing by zero.

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“We should EASILY be 10-2 next year – anything less and Weis should be gone.”

“This schedule is so weak, no teams on there will be any good except USC so 11-1 is the minimum acceptable result in the regular season.”

People, please.  If anything, the last 2 years have taught us that we have no idea what to expect from teams this early in the year.

Last year, had Texas Tech been on our schedule at the beginning of the season, fans would’ve called it an easy/must win (bc if we lost, we’d be losing to a “tier 2″ team).  At the end of the year, you’d call a win over TT a great win over a great program!  The point is that you don’t KNOW how good a team is going to be this fall.  Yes, you have a general barometer, but we have no idea if this schedule will be in the Top 40 or the Bottom 40 in SOS.  Yeah, it’ll probably fall somewhere between, but the key word is PROBABLY!  As in, there’s a probability but not a certainty.

Two years ago we all expected 7-5ish (ISH! I’m not saying that’s what YOU individually expected, it’s a generalization), and went 3-9.   Last year folks generally ended up around 8-4 and we went 6-6.  Michigan (sucks!) fans thought they’d be .500 or better last year, and they went 3-9.  Nobody expected Texas Tech to be in the BCS MNC hunt last year.

Yes, you can run down our schedule and assign probabilities of wins, but there’s 2 factors that will make you wrong at least a decent chunk of the time.  1, the program we’re playing ends up being better than you expected, or 2, luck.  Even if you get a program nailed spot on, on any given Saturday and all that crap.

For what it’s worth, I think 10-2 is a good result in the Fall based on what we know TODAY.  It assumes a loss to USC and one other (which, odds are, will happen due to luck/weather/injury/weirdness/whatever).  9-3 means this happens twice, and that really isn’t the end of the world.  It’s BCS or NY day worthy, and that’s a Top 20 finish with a bowl win for sure.  11-1 is amazing given recent history, and 12-0 isn’t impossible but it’s certainly unlikely (very unlikely, as it is for any team, bc you can’t make many mistakes at all and you can’t have injuries and blah blah blah).

But what we know TODAY isn’t a whole lot.  Teams will change a lot through the spring and early fall.  Our team will change a lot.  Some teams could have breakout stars come out of nowhere.  Some teams (except Michigan (sucks) bc they suck) could be surprisingly good.  You just don’t know til you know.

So can people stop ‘demanding’ certain things based on what they  ‘know’ about the schedule?  It’s just really pointless, and it makes you look foolish.  

Thanks for listening.  Ranting is good for the soul.

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So, I’ve been watching ND play some hoops this year, and only one word really describes it well:  frustrating.  Our offense is hot and cold (and more often cold this year, hence our struggles), and we simply just don’t play great defense.  Our ability to rebound offensively is just flat out weak, and our defensive boards are just average.

That said, this is a team with HUGE potential – hence the early Top 10 rankings.   Luke is a beast, and has carried the team at times.  Our back-court has such great shooting potential, it’s crazy.  But that’s been the problem – all the offensive firepower has been potential this year, and hasn’t resulted in points.   At one point, I tuned in for 6 losses in a row.  Ugh, it hurt.

Granted, all 6 of those teams were quality Top 25 teams, and that’s one thing ND has going for it as we get down to crunch time – the SOS is ridonculous.  It seems that every week we play another Top 20 team – largely bc of playing in the Big East, easily the best conference in hoops – but also because of our tough OOC schedule, which included a trip to UCLA. 

ND needs to get to 8-10 in Big East League play to have an outside shot at making the tourney.  In most leagues you have no shot at that record, but the Big East is freaking stacked.  At latest count, the BE featured 5 teams in the Top 10, with Pitt at #1 and UCONN at #2.  Louisville is at 6, Marquette 8, Villanova 10.  Madness, right?

The 4 remaining games on the schedule are Rutgers (tomorrow), which should be a W, UCONN (28th) which will be a tough matchup once again,  ‘Nova (March 2nd) which is another tough but winnable game, and St. John’s on Mar 6th which should be a W (but should’ve been last time too).  If we lose both ‘tough’ games in a close battle with our offense showing its potential, and take care of Rutgers and St. John’s, we have a decent shot at 8-10.  With the same record and lackluster play, we’re out.  If we can pull off a win against ‘Nova or especialy UCONN and get to 9-9 I think we have a really good shot, and if we somehow magically run the table we are a lock.

So tune in and keep supporting the Irish.  This is when things get exciting.  I think we’d all admit that hoops hasn’t gone as we’d expected (heck, in November I was calling us a ‘basketball school’ which I do every few years for about a week), but we still have a chance.  And if this team gets hot on the shooting side, watch out.

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Here in Chicago we’re just waiting for 8 inches of snow to arrive between now and tomorrow night. 8 inches of soul crushing, mind blowing, life taking crystalline water. I want all the snow flakes to know that I hate every one of those unique SOBs.

The Roundup:

• Golden Tate is blogging, and he lets us know that ND QBs, like fighter pilots, don’t get to pick their nicknames.
• The Shark is hoping to start this year.
• Rakes realizes that ND is now a hockey school.
• It has to be a good sign that it’s absolutely killing SoCal fans and bloggers that Te’o picked ND – so much so that they aren’t even bothering with facts.
• I don’t know where they come from, but Gator fans keep leaving comments on this post many, many months after the fact. Things are a bit slow in the south sometimes.
• He might just be a tad bit difficult to work with.
• Got too many people on your roster? Dismiss some of the more useless ones with the “Violating Team Rules” catch-all. Team Rule broken? Probably “Failure to be as good as the new guy.”
• Is your grandfather Twittering? David Cutcliffe is. (HT: EDSBS)

If this is where you live, I hate you.

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Got a huge home stadium at a state school smack dab in a state dependent on an industry that hasn’t seen fit to evolve since just after someone said, “hey! We could replace horses with these motor buggies?” Then you must suck, because you’re Michigan, and you’re gonna cut ticket prices for 2009.

Athletic director Bill Martin told The Associated Press on Thursday a season-ticket holder will pay $50 on average for a ticket after paying $53.57 last year.

“In this challenging time economically, this is our way of thanking our fans who have supported us for decades,” Martin said. “Unlike most schools, we had an opportunity to lower prices for football tickets.”

…also, thanks for coming to watch games after we lost more games than any other time in our history and our HC seems hell-bent on ridding the state of QBs.

This, of course, isn’t to say that I’d mind if ND dropped ticket prices for 2009 as well. Sucky economies coupled with sucky home schedules is nearly as bad as Michigan (sucks!). Mostly, I’m just posting to prove, again, that I’m not dead, and to point out, again, how much Michigan (sucks!) sucks.

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Given everything that’s gone on, who Charlie is, and who is supporting cast members are, Charlie should be in the booth. I don’t know if he will be, but he should be. Here are a few thoughts on why I think Chuck should go ‘up top’, and why I think it looks like he’s going to:

1) The Knees – Charlie’s legs are screwed. He’s been dealing with nerve damage in his feet for a few years since the botched stomach surgery. He’s been overweight for a long time, which puts pressure on the joints. And last season both knees got pretty much destroyed. While I was personally moved by his toughness in sticking it out on the sidelines last year through all that pain, his knees, and probably his body in general, need a break. The booth gives him a break during games, at the least.

2) He is OC – and the OC belongs upstairs. Charlie said as much after the Hawaii game where he called a great game and the Irish offense MOVED. You can see the field better up there, see the defenses, and notice the mistakes and the mis-matches more. To do the best job he can do as an OC, he should be upstairs. And after last year, that’s hugely important.

3) He can do what he needs to do from the booth – if he needs to talk to Jimmy, get him on the phone. If he needs to talk to Armando, get him on the phone. Charlie Jr’s new job should be running down guys for Chuck to talk to when the defense is on the field.

4) He has a Field General in Corwin Brown – with Brown’s promotion to Associate Head Coach, he has the right guy in the right position to run the team from the sidelines during a game. Brown can fire guys up, Brown can get in the ref’s face (this is my biggest concern – Brown hasn’t had to be this guy, or the challenge guy, in the past and it’ll take some adjustment), Brown can make personnel adjustments and he can manage the sideline. With Tenuta calling the plays, what other role could be as important for an Associate Head Coach/Co-Defensive Coordinator? If Brown doesn’t do this job, then I’m not sure what he does on game day. Give guys tips on technique? He’d essentially be a glorified position coach at that point, and that’s not what Brown is. He’s the Associate Head Coach, and he’s the perfect guy to run the team from the sideline.

Now, one thing that I think is hugely important is that Charlie not lose touch with the Defense and Special Teams. I hope he really does spend time with those guys, and doesn’t lose touch with them. He HAS to be the Head Coach and OC, not just one or the other. The dinners with the players, the time spent in practice, the meetings, etc – he has to figure out a way to ensure that those don’t just go away. Reduced? Of course. But not gone. Not nothin – he’s the Head Coach, so he needs to figure out a way.

Charlie will also need to figure out a way to do the traditional things that Head Coaches do. He needs to give the pre-game speech (well, at least the warmup to Brown’s Main Event). Then, he needs to lead the team onto the field, and THEN make his way up to the booth. This is only symbolic, but it’s an important symbol. He also has to get down to the Locker Room for half time to connect with the players, talk through the second half adjustments, etc. Again, the ‘rah rah’ can be Brown, but Charlie needs to be there to run the meeting and lead. I don’t care if he needs a golf cart and a few sets of elevators, he’s gotta make it happen.

If he can do all these things, it’s as close to perfect as you can get with this staff – you get Weis as OC and as Head Coach. You get Brown helping design the defense and coach the defense, but he runs the entire team and the sideline game day. And you get Tenuta as DC.

What do you think? Should Charlie be up in the booth or on the sideline?

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to other schools. zing!

After losing top-ranked QB Ryan Mallet a little over a year ago, RR has lost his only other “real” QB with the transfer of Steven Threet.

“I’ve decided to transfer from the University of Michigan,” Threet recited from a prepared statement during a telephone conversation Sunday. “I have requested and received my release. I do not yet know where I will continue my collegiate career and will have no further comment until that decision is made.”

Course, the skunkbears bring in 2 ‘dual threat’ QBs as frosh this year, so I’m sure that one of those 2 will start when ND whomps them again this Fall.

So much for RR being able to ‘adjust the system’ to fit any style of QB. We all knew those lines were a bunch of BS, much like 99% of everything RR says, but it’s nice to see that proven to be the case. RR’s offense is a somewhat advanced high school scheme without a Pat White, so this isn’t much of a shock.

Good luck Threet. Great choice.

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Like he said in his PC, Charlie didn’t waste much time in locking up a new D-line coach as soon as his old pal Romeo decided to pass.

ND has hired Randy Hart to coach the D-line. Hart has been at Washington for over 20 years, and even stuck around for Ty, which is impressive in and of itself. Like Tenuta, Hart has Ohio State in his lineage, having played Guard and served as Captain there on a NC squad coached by Woody.

Hart is a hard-nosed coach like Tenuta as well, and is apparently legendary around UW for his constant mantra:

“Get em on the go. Go, go, go and don’t stop”

Sounds at least slightly familiar huh?

Hart should be a great fit for this team. Long on experience and strong on attitude, he’ll be a workhorse of a coach to help mentor our young D-linemen and our young Grad Assistant Bryant (pun!). It’s an almost perfect hire on paper, though of course how the defensive staff and players gel is TBD.

Welcome to the program, and the family, sir.   We’re very happy to have you.

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The Spring roster is out.

Interesting thing to note is that we have only 5 Seniors on the spring squad.  5th-year announcements will be made in the coming weeks and you can expect most of these guys to return, but from a current Senior Class perspective, this is a TINY TINY group.  Consider also who those 5 are:

Anello – Rudy incarnate, but only going to play ST (and returning from a broken leg)

Duncan – Major Contributor

Herring – Minor Contributor, largely for depth and ST though could fight for vacant S spot this year

McCarthy – Minor Contributor, largely for depth and ST [NOTE: sloppy cut and paste here and i got called out for it and rightfully so. Leaving it in for further public lynching. Fire away].

Smith – Minor Contributor, largely for depth and ST

Needless to say, it’s going to fall largely on the Seniors and Juniors to lead this squad. Step up boys.  Step up.

[NOTE: Called out for mis-labeling seniors as 5th and 5th as seniors. After a few happy hour beers I didn't keep these two labels clean (since the current seniors will be 5th years), and so I updated it as it should've been. My bad!]

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You might have read CW’s PC and learnt some things about the new staff and the upcoming season.  If you did, you came away with one question:  Who the F is Dishotsky?

Well, we at HLS used our inside sources and got digging.  We googled, we emailed and we watched late afternoon Friday TV just prior to Happy Hour while the rest of you suckers did work.  And man, we found some stuff.

So, apparently Dishotsky is a 6′5″, 320 pound rock solid bohemeth DE from Belarus that was supposed to be a final signing day surprise for the Irish.  Though already 20 years old, Dishotsky hasn’t attended college, as he’s been doing some serious work as a body guard in the Belarus special forces, so he’s retained all 4 years of eligibility.    He played “American Football” growing up and is supposed to be ridonculous.  Rock solid unit.  Oline One Man Wrecking Crew.

When asked about him today, Weis had the following to say:

Q. Has there been any resolution with Dishotsky?
COACH WEIS: You know, it’s interesting, because just last week he had an open-door policy to come here. Just last week he was still not enrolled in any school yet. So I try not to pry too much, because I don’t really know the magnitude of how bad the problems are. You just make yourself available if you want to do that.
I’m not sure, based on the questions he asked, Like, Well, if he wanted to stay out here could I go to that school? Yes. If I wanted to go here, could I go to that school? Yes. I don’t think he really knows what he wants to do yet, because I don’t really know the magnitude of problems. I really think it would be out of line if I asked.

I’ll translate for you quickly – Dishotsky seemed to be leaning Irish around signing day, and Weis was ready to welcome him in. 

 Come on down, my Belarusian friend, and destroy sad little Skunkbear Offensive Linemen with one hand tied behind your back!  Sure, you can use that Death Grip thing you learned in the Special Forces, no problem!

But things have been sketchy over there lately, and Dishotsky has been busy.  You know, instability in the region (this aggression will not stand dude!) etc, and the Belarus government really wanted to keep him around.  So they were throwing tons of cash at him to keep him there, and he hesitated.  In swoops none other than Urban Meyer.

C’mon kid, you can play QB here!  Honest!  Nah, we don’t have anyone at the position, you can start this year!

And that threw everything out of whack.  So the poor kid is stuck between bailing on his country in a time of need, heading to ND and the Irish, or Urban and his lies.  Poor guy.  I hope he makes the right choice.  I mean, look at this guy, he’d be a man among boys – in the back field before the QB puts his hands on the ball, even when under center!  He’d be a killer pickup, so I hope this works out for us.

Note:  The question was actually about Jashaad Gaines, who has been gone from the team for a little while with some personal issues.  The transcription service somehow “heard” Jashaad Gaines and got Dishotsky, which is just awesome.  The pics above are of the Chargers’ Igor Olshansky, who is a baaaaaad man.

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We think.

Everyone thought Speed WR Roma was the last minute addition in this Irish recruiting class, but it turns out there’s one more:  Mr. Tom Freeman.

FREE-MAAAAAAAN.  Welcome aboard sir. 

Tommy Freeman follows in the footsteps of another Tom:  The Bemenderfer, and comes to ND because it’s what he really, really wanted.  Tom is a Center, like the ‘Derfer, and follows a strong recruiting class ahead of him at the position, like the ‘Derfer.

But his passion and love for ND is all his own.

“In the fall, we visited Northwestern on an unofficial visit, and when we came back, Tom said I can’t see myself anywhere other than Notre Dame,” his father explained. “He grew up in a Notre Dame family with Notre Dame tradition around him. It’s what he’s always dreamed of doing, and I think that’s going to be a big help to him. He understands what it means to be a Notre Dame football player and the tradition that goes into it. He’s not going up there for a free education. He’s going back there to try and help them get back to where they were for many, many years.”

Although not a super highly rated recruit, Tom is a player, make no mistake about it.  He had offers from a number of programs, including Northestern (the ‘Derfer’s previous home), Duke, South Florida, Ball State, the academies and the Ivy League programs.  No doubt, he’s a smart kid given that list, and also a smart one for sticking to what he loves.

“His mom and I both went to Notre Dame. It’s always been a dream of his to play at Notre Dame. He considers it a great privilege to play for Our Lady’s University, and help them get back to the National Championship. It’s going to be a sacrifice, but he’s guaranteed me he’s going to work as hard as he can to earn a scholarship.

“There is no doubt in my mind he can do it. He’s going in weighing a solid 280. I think he’s fast enough and strong enough. Much better than I ever was. He’s smart. He understands the game. Plays with a lot of passion. Takes a tremendous amount of pride in being the best that he can be.”

We’re happy to have you Tom.  Keep that love going, keep the hard work going, and it can pay off.  In playing time, in team development, in your own growth as a person and a football player.   Congrats kid, and congrats to his parents for fulfilling his dream (despite the absurd cost).

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Washington is on a roll lately. Seriously.

First, they lose every game they ever played.

And even before this, they had already bailed on Ty. (But he’s a molder of men!)

Then, they hire a new guy with lots of potential who brings in his OC quickly.

Then they break NCAA recruiting rules on their first day in the office.

They somehow bring in a class of 18 dudes, in about 2 weeks, after Ty had gotten only 1 verbal over the course of the previous year. Nevermind that all the dudes are from JC’s..

Then the OC bails for the freaking Raiders.

Then they get a new mascot, and name it “Dubs”. How does a school name its mascot after a set of ghetto-fabulous rims? They SPINNIN’ THEY SPINNIN’!

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Every time you come around city BLING BLING.

Okay, not really, here’s a better representation of the little guy.

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Awwww, isn’t he just the cutest widdle guy. Such a cute widdle guy!

Wow. What a few months for UW. Drah-ma.

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It was just a year ago when people were calling for Brian Polian’s head.  “He’s no good!”   “He’s never coached before!”  “What’s he doing here?”  Heck, it had actually started the year before that.  Lots of hate for a young coach in a relatively obscure role.

To me, it was ludicrous.  Yes, Polian was a new coach and learning (like some other guys on the staff).  But he’s always been a hell of a recruiter.  He’s been our lead West Coast guy for some time, and no one can argue with his success.  Clausen a few years back, now Wood, Evans and the jewel of this class Te’o – all brought in by Polian. 

The dude flew to Hawaii EVERY SINGLE WEEK during the past season to lock up Manti, and that shows a lot of dedication, a lot of heart, and a lot of determination. 

“I’d like to take this chance to thank the crew of United flight 81,” Polian said with a smile. “I got to know them well, because I took the same flight every Wednesday from LAX to Honolulu.”

Polian, Notre Dame’s special teams coordinator and lead West Coast recruiter, made that journey 10 times in the last 14 months — including three trips in December and three more in January — just to visit linebacker Manti Te’o, one of the highest-rated prospects in the country.

Polian’s also coming around as a coach, credited with helping fix Walker’s kicking woes, and most definitely shoring up ND’s ST’s this year, pulling in a top-ranked kickoff return and punt return unit.

Still feel the same way hater-ers?  Didn’t think so.

Well done Coach Polian.   Glad to have you on board.  Play on playa.

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Now that the classes are final (okay, maybe Toby Roma comes on board, but let’s just say they’re final for now), everyone’s going to dig into the rankings.  Here’s how ND’s class stacks up currently according to the ‘experts’:

ESPN:   14

Rivals:  21

Scout:  24

Not bad for coming off a 3-9 followed by a 7-6 record, and not bad considering all the talent that came into ND in last year’s #1 consensus recruting class.  But not great either.

The problem with these services is that volume has a lot of influence in their rankings.  For example, each each system, there are a lot of teams who have more Top 100/150/200 players that fall below teams with fewer.  I get why – they need to ensure that a team that pulls in 3 high quality guys isn’t ranked super high.  The other problem is that they don’t take into account need and specialists.  ND had a big need for certain positions, and they were met this year.  A few of those happened to be specialists – K, P, Long Snapper – and those guys always get low ratings even if they’re the best at what they do.  So things get skewed a bit, and it also misses a big point – who’s getting the most of the real talent?  The big time guys?

So I went ahead and re-ranked teams according to the number of “Top” players in their respective classes.  And given that ND has a smaller class this year, guess what?  We improve.  Shocking!

ESPN:  I used number of Top 150 players in the class.   ND jumps from #14 to #9, moving ahead of teams with fewer (sometimes 3-4 fewer) Top 150 players, but more players overall.

Rivals:  I used number of 4-5 star players, and ND moves up to #15 from #21.   ND ties MSU for that spot, and remains behind the killer classes like Bama, OSU, etc.  But we jump ahead of teams like Arkansas, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Auburn and Stanford – classes that have a ton of players, but not as many top guys.

Scout:  Again I used number of 4-5 star players.  We move from #24 to #12!  Clearly Scout places way too much emphasis on volume.   (We’re tied with 5 other teams at 12, FYI).  Because we have 9 players in the 4-5 star range, we move ahead of teams like Arkansas, Miss. St, Penn State and Auburn.  And we end up tied with FSU, Miami, Michigan, and Florida.   Heck, Scout had South Florida ranked RIGHT behind ND at #25, and they only pulled in 3 guys with 4-5 star ratings.  Seriously?   You think a team with 3 Top players, none of which are named Manti Te’o is BARELY worse than ND’s haul?  That’s just moronic.  And bad methodology.

Final result?  ND has a class that is somewhere in the Top 20 for sure, and should probably be considered a Top 15 class given the talent, need fulfillment, etc. beyond pure numbers.  No, it’s not a killer class like the previous year, but you can’t be #1 every year, and we got some serious studs in this class. 

Besides, going Top 10, Top 5, #1, Top 15, Top 5 (with next year’s 2010 class) ain’t bad at all.

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