What “Weak” Schedule?

Coming into this year, most folks could agree that the schedule set up nicely to give ND a run.  To me, that meant 7-5, and I still think that's right.  Somehow, and very irrationally, people started expecting 9-3, 10-2 against this 'weak' schedule after a 3-9 debacle last year.  They pointed to how many 'easy' games were out there for the taking, and that the tough games looked to be winn-able.  But is it really that weak?  REALLY? 

Compared to last year, yes, it's weak-ER.  But last year was a freaking gauntlet.  Seriously, do we HAVE to have a Top 15 SOS each year?  I don't think so, and this year is a good year in terms of a balance. 

ND's schedule is currently ranked as the 40th hardest in the country.  No, it's not murderer's row.  I'm not saying it's the toughest schedule in the world, but it's certainly not the lightest either.  Next week we'll drop a bit playing Syracuse, but then jump up again after USC.  By Sagarin, we'll probably end up right around the upper-30's.  That's in the Top 1/3rd of schools in terms of schedule difficulty.  That's a pretty tough schedule by anyone's measure.   Our 4 losses come against the 4 teams that make that schedule more difficult - 4 teams that were, or are, ranked in the Top 25 (MSU, UNC, PITT, BC), although UNC just dropped out after crapping the bed against Maryland.

ND's schedule at 40 is tougher than top-ranked teams including Texas Tech (50), Alabama (72), Penn State (62), OK State (57), Missouri (58), Utah (76), TCU (83), Boise State (123), MSU (49), BC (60), BYU (103), Ball State (127), FSU (74). 

ND fans need to recalibrate a bit.  Historically, we have played ridiculously tough schedules.  Loading up with traditionally decent programs in the Big Ten and Big East, along with (typically) stalwarts like USC and Michigan is ludicrous.  We don't have to have a Top 15 SOS every year.  I think it's a good thing to run a balance, where we have some top level matchups with big-time programs, mixed with some decent/solid programs, and a few cupcakes.  A SOS in the upper 20s to the upper 30s, to me, is the perfect balance.  We never want to be, nor be perceived to be, scheduling gimme-games every week, but we certainly don't need Murderer's Row (where IS that place anyway?) every year.

This year is a decent balance to me.  It feels 'really weak' to ND fans because 1) we're used to something absurdly tough and 2) everyone tells us how ND plays a weak schedule (but read through this - these people are just jealous of the independent status and are expressing that jealousy through this BS of theirs.  Really, take a look at the bottom 3-4 teams in every conference.  Hands-down as bad as/worse than the Academies, etc).

The losses to 4 Top 25 teams also contextualizes them - we didn't lose to terrible teams.  Now, we didn't lose in the best fashion either.  But it's important to note that an ND team chalk-full of young players, that was 3-9 last year, has ONLY lost to TOP 25 TEAMS.  And that that same team was very much in those games, and that with a few more bounces/swings, could've won 3 of them (BC was just a mess).

That's a big improvement, against a schedule that really, really just ain't weak.