Jimmy: “Isn’t this winning thing fun!?”

James: “Yeah! Talk to you in a bit!”

We’re feeling pretty confident that 2008 will look like a very nice turnaround from the disaster of 2007, but we’re also weary enough after 2007 to be unsurprised by the outcome of anything that will happen to close out the 2nd half of the season.

That said, 6 games gives you some pretty meaty stats to pour over while you await the terror to be unleashed upon Washington in 2 weeks. The offense has certainly made a nice turnaround. In fact, the passing game has made such a huge turnaround (now the 18th ranked passing game in the country) that it feels like I’d just get a lot of “Duh” comments if I created a post around it, but the running game is another story. Currently ranked 109th in the country, at first blush it doesn’t look a whole heck of a lot better than the 2007 version, which finished with a rank of 115. Let’s dig a bit deeper and see if we can’t cull some positivity out of something that seems to be struggling.

According to the NCAA, the 2007 Irish ranked 115th in the country with an average of 72.75 yards per game. Also according to the NCAA, the 2008 Irish rank 109th in the country with an average of 101.17 yards per game. Already, we see something like a 25% improvement! But, let’s not forget that the NCAA rushing totals include “rushes” that were really QB sacks. And having given away a record number of sacks in 2007, the Irish rushing numbers suffered even more than the already bland Irish running attack perhaps should. So let’s distill the numbers a bit, and only look at the production of the Irish running backs.

I’ve got a fever, and it can only be cured by more spreadsheet:

These numbers were compiled by counting only the rushing plays of the Irish players designated as tailbacks or fullbacks. What might jump out and shock/disappoint some is that the yards/carry of 2008 is essentially exactly the same as the yards/carry of 2007. Yards per carry can usually be counted on to measure the effectiveness of a rushing attack even if that rushing attack isn’t counted on to be the primary piece of the offensive attack. And what we see is sort of disconcerting for Irish fans. The 2008 Irish running backs aren’t any more productive on a yards/carry basis than the 2007 Irish running backs. Now, the 2008 Irish running backs are about a half yard/carry more productive over the first 6 games than the 2007 version, but the 2007 schedule was probably quite a bit more difficult.

What may also surprise is that the 2007 Irish running backs had 3.9 yards/carry rather than something more horrific that would have better fit with the gruesome cognitive snap-shots we all reluctantly recall when looking to compare the 2008 to 2007. C’mon, admit it, some of you were thinking the 2007 number would be between the integers 0 and 2, right? It’s not going to impress Louisiana-Lafayette (7.55 yds/carry and still just 3-3?), but it’s productive enough to build drives upon - so long as you don’t make any stupid mistakes along the way. And perhaps that’s all that’s really making this 2008 Irish running game look better than the 2007 version. The Irish have eliminated the negative plays for the most part.

And that all probably plays into what’s really making the Irish running game look better: The ability to continue running. When the Irish eliminate soul-sucking, drive-killing plays, it results in getting to execute more plays on the way to the end zone. 3.92 yards/carry starts to add up, and before you know it, you’ve got 3 out of 6 games where the Irish rush for 100+ yards (and a 4th where they rush for 95). See, in 2007, the Irish running backs only rushed for more than 100 yards 4 times all season: 149 v. MSU, 232 v. Navy, 210 v. Duke, and 144 v. Stanford. Meanwhile, the 2007 Irish also failed to run the ball more than 20 times in a game 4 times in the first 7 games largely because all those soul-sucking, drive killing negative plays and turnovers resulted in the Irish playing massive proportions of those games from way, way behind. The 2008 Irish have already managed to run the ball 30 or more times in a game 3 times this season - a feat not accomplished until the 11th game of the 2007 season.

It would be more encouraging if the Irish running backs had a 4.5 yards/carry average at this point in the season (and, perhaps, the Irish record would be slightly better as well), but the Irish may be on their way to something closer to that level of production. In the last 3 games, the Irish running backs have rushed the ball 75 times for 345 yards at a 4.6 yards/carry clip. That output has come against defenses with an average rushing defense rank of 65th. The previous 3 games, the Irish only got 3.25 yards/carry against defenses with an average rushing defense rank of 66th (including the 119th ranked SDSU). Maybe the Irish have taken some baby steps in learning to run the football.

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