Over-Work Safety

After 2 games, Notre Dame is ranked #52 in the nation in defending the run. Meanwhile, Pat Haden and various Notre Dame fans talk quite a bit about the “productivity” of the starting Notre Dame safeties, David Bruton and Kyle McCarthy. Both Bruton and McCarthy are very good players, and anyone who’s ever competently observed football will agree that Bruton and McCarthy pass the ole’ “eyeball test.” They tackle very well, they cover a lot of ground, and they have made some of the biggest plays of the season thus far. And thank God they’re excellent at what they do because, well, they’re getting worked.

Here’s a fun data sheet! (Note, the plays credited to each player don’t quite match up with their tackle credits, partly because of special teams play, partially because numbers are just wacky.)

While becoming #52 against the run, ND has faced 57 carries by opponents (15 by SDSU and 42 by Michigan (sucks!)), and given up an average of 4.04 yards per carry. Now, here’s where you’ve got to note that, at this point anyway, the NCAA isn’t ranking rushing defenses by yards/carry but by average yards per game. It’s also worth noting that, when one of your two opponents only carries the ball 15 times for 80 yards, getting a low yards/game average is pretty trivial.

Now, during those 57 carries, Bruton and/or McCarthy have made a tackle, according to the NCAA play-by-play records, 20 times or 35% of the time. And that’s when I get a lump in my throat.

One of the possible mitigating factors here is the particular defense ND was usually playing against Michigan (sucks!). In that game, the usual base set involved just 2 linebackers, thus removing 2 of your typical rush defenders from the field. Great. But the average yards/rush in which the 2 safeties are involved is also pretty disconcerting. If Bruton is tackling a rusher, it’s typically after an 11 yard gain. If McCarthy tackles a rusher, it’s typically after an 8 yard gain.

Another possible mitigating factor could be the types of offenses ND has faced thus far. Both opponents played some version of the spread, with SDSU focusing on the pass and Michigan (sucks!) focusing on handing off the ball to Sam McGuffie. I freaking hate that kid, but I still don’t understand the spread attack well enough to venture forth here. I will say this though, gosh the term “cutback lanes” kept popping to mind when McGuffie was running the ball.

I haven’t done a terribly thorough analysis of where any “holes,” might be in the defensive front 7 causing these opportunities for so much defensive production on the part of the safeties, but I do find it interesting to take a look at the tackle numbers and note to whom a ton of tackles are not being credited. It’s hard to say if that average yards/defended carry in which Bruton and McCarthy are involved is high for safeties on rushing tackles. After all, the very name of the position implies that they’d be making plays deep in their defended territory. They’re the last defense. And I simply don’t have the time or the child-labor necessary to analyze “good” rushing defenses around the country. I recall that UCLA’s safeties were both quite excellent in run support in 2007, but that’s way back before they were giving up 59 points to BYU.

One last little interesting tidbit to help make that chili-dog you had for dinner particularly heart-burny tonight: Kyle McCarthy is currently ranked in a tie for 5th nationally in total tackle credits. David Bruton is tied for 20th. ND’s next ranked tackler? Mo Crum in a tie for 351st.

Hrm.