Looking Back On What’s To Come: The Michigan (sucks!) Game

Despite the fact that Notre Dame first played Michigan (sucks!) in a game of football in 1887, and despite the fact that both fan bases hate each other with the white-hot heat of 1,000,000 suns – and very hot suns at that – the Irish and the Skunkbears have only played 35 football games. And in that time, Notre Dame has recorded 14 wins, 20 losses, and 1 tie. Now, I’ve never been much for believing that historical season statistics tell much of future propositions when it comes to college football. There’s too much turnover year-to-year for the variables to be manageable enough to say “because X in nineteen-bippity-boo to two-thousand-yippity-yap, Y.” However, the history of Notre Dame/Michigan (sucks!) does present some interesting data.

As mentioned, 35 games have been played between the Irish and the Skunkbears. 6 of those games, all Skunkbear wins, occurred on or before 1900. Since then, the series has been all tied up 14-14-1.

The all-time scoring average in the series has been ND – 15.5 to UM(s!) – 20.5.

In the last 20 games played, the average score is ND – 20, UM(s!) – 23.

In the last 10 games, ND – 18.7, UM(s!) – 26.9.

Average score, ND wins in the last 10 years: 26.5 to 18.5
Average score, ND losses in the last 10 years: 10.75 to 37.25
Average score, ND home games, last 10 years: 27.5 to 27.5

Again, I don’t really like year-to-year stats when it comes to predicting current-season outcomes. You lose 1/4th of your roster every year unless your predecessor was Ty Willingham. Coaches tinker with systems almost annually. And coaches get hired and fired constantly. But it’s interesting to note, just for “academic” purposes, that in the last decade or so, a Michigan (sucks!) win in this series has meant the Skunkbears winning handily, by about 27 points. (No doubt the 38-0 blowouts in recent years help there.) When ND wins, it’s by a far lower margin, with an average of about 8 points. Given that neither team in the 2008 season has “lit up” the scoreboard, that may bode well for the Irish. Most pundits are calling for an “ugly” and “defensive” game. EDIT: Here’s where I meant to point out that, when ND wins, the winning score tends to be significantly lower. Now, perhaps, the preceding statements have some logical basis. Maybe.

So, going against just about everything I hold dear when it comes to statistical analysis of college football, my prediction: ND – 28, UM(s!) – 14. A veritable blow-out for ND in the history of the ND/UM(s!) series. ND’s defense is going to force the still fawn-like UM(s!) offense to make plenty of mistakes, and that will open up enough opportunities for the Irish to show a great deal of improvement in “situational football,” resulting in a 2-score game that’s going to feel uncomfortable for the entire 60 minutes of play.

*All bets are off if the weather is stormy.