You may not have heard, but Navy finally won a football game against Notre Dame. So we now have our answer to the age-old question: “If Navy and Notre Dame were to play 44 football games, how many would Navy win?”

Charlie Weis will tell you that the players don’t really care about the streak, but I can’t imagine that’s quite true. They probably are much, much more concerned with being 0-5 at home in 2007, but I don’t doubt that some of the weight sitting upon the shoulders of those young guys had “43-0″ written on it. And given all the other weight (1-7, 0-4 at home, worst offense in the country, etc…), that weight became too much to bare this week. So thank God that’s all over and done with and the guys can get to worrying about things like tackling and blocking.

I haven’t read, listened to, or watched much about yesterday’s game. I’m aware of Biscuit’s diatribe below. I’ve read it. He has a point. But I don’t think the issue with the loss to Navy was that Weis made a few weird calls. The issue is that the game could be affected by a few weird calls at all. The issue is that the team is already so bad that a few weird calls by Weis could possibly be construed as a reason that Navy finally beat Notre Dame. The real issue is that, after time expired in the 3rd quarter, the game was still a game and Notre Dame fans were wondering how the Irish could win this one rather than whether or not certain 2nd and 3rd stringers would get to play at all to help prepare for the future. The real issue is that ND ended up playing Navy’s ideal game: a “controlled shoot-out.” And since it was Navy’s, and not ND’s, ideal game, it makes a lot of sense that the score reflects as much.

Let’s define “controlled shoot-out.” It’s what I’m calling a game where both teams can essentially grind out fairly long scoring drives at will, and neither defense can do much to stop them. You end up with games that end up 28-28. That’s not exactly lighting up the scoreboard, but it’s clear that it wasn’t a “defensive ballgame” either. ND should never be in a controlled shoot-out with Navy because it eliminates all advantage that ND has. ND’s advantage should come from size, speed, and athleticism. ND should be able to “run away” from a team like Navy who, despite obvious disadvantages, can use excellent execution and the “great equalizer” of the triple option to grind out a few scoring drives against a lot of teams. Yesterday, ND couldn’t run away.

First, let’s look at the defense. Because if anything disappointed me yesterday, it was the defense. Yeah, they “only” gave up 257 yards rushing to a team that leads the NCAA in rushing and averages more than 300 a game. And yeah, Navy “only” scored 28 points. But that 28 points is the most given up by Notre Dame to Navy since Charlie Weis took over. In 2005, Navy scored 21 points. In 2006, just 14 points. So ND gave up about 10 points more than they normally do with Weis as a head coach. That’s just awful. Even worse, ND couldn’t force Navy to either give up the ball on downs or by punting yesterday until there were only about 2 minutes left in regulation. Whereas in 2005, Navy turned the ball over on downs with about 8:30 left in the 2nd quarter and in 2006, Navy 1st punted the ball with 16 seconds left in the 1st half. That’s a huge difference in control of momentum. Yes, ND forced a fumble on Navy’s 1st possession yesterday, but real control of a game is usually dictated by forcing the opponent to give you the ball, and ND’s defense never showed any will to exert that sort of force. Tackling was poor. Again. CBs seemed to always let the play come to them after 4 yards rather than attacking the play. Linebackers looked confused. The QB often went un-hit. Ultimately, ND’s defensive performance was pathetic.

The 2nd half of the equation that lead to yesterday’s outcome was relatively poor 1st down production by Notre Dame. That might fool a lot of people because, compared to pretty much every other game Notre Dame has played in 2007, the Irish looked awesome, especially running the ball. But an “improved,” and I use that term lightly, ND offense in 2007 can only manage to “match” the offensive production of Navy, rather than “run away” from Navy. In 2005 and 2006, Notre Dame simply beat Navy by running away. When you’re really thumping a team, and I mean just completely out-matching them, you hardly need to worry about “1st downs” because the plays you run are going to gain a lot of yardage anyway. And 2005/2006 are great examples of that. In 2005, ND averaged 8.15 yards per 1st down play (To Navy’s 4.4). In 2006, ND averaged 9.03 yards per 1st down play (to Navy’s 5.9). ND almost didn’t even need a “chain gang” in those games. But in 2007, ND only managed 4.86 yards per 1st down play to Navy’s 4.7. Essentially, ND and Navy were playing at each other’s level. Great for Navy, horrible for ND. Because at that level, even if you’re “producing” offensively, you’re still taking longer to get down the field, meaning you’re “shortening the game” and nullifying all those advantages you worked so hard in recruiting to get.

Another example of how ND “shortened the game” on itself, and thus actually helped Navy even though ND played “better” on offense is the amount of time it took ND to score a TD on TD scoring drives. In 2005, each Notre Dame TD scoring drive took an average of 3:07. In 2006, each ND TD scoring drive took an average of 3:24. Yesterday, even when a drive ended in a “good” way (with a TD), the Irish still needed an average of 4:57 to get it done. Leaving themselves less time to score more points later in the game. Navy couldn’t stop the Irish, but, in a way, they did “contain” them. ND and Weis took about 1:40 more time in each of their TD drives in regulation yesterday than they typically do against Navy. That’s about 50% more time eaten up by ND. All against a horrid, horrid defense.

I heard a lot of people after the game insist that 27 passing attempts by ND were “ridiculous” considering how well ND was running the ball, but it’s not like ND was averaging 6 yards a carry. ND only grossed 275 yards on the ground in 63 attempts. That’s only about 4.4 yards a carry even if you go and negate the lost yardage. And Weis knew he needed to “buy time” for his more talented, faster, stronger, bigger team to eventually win out. At least when a pass is incomplete, the clock stops. Plus, passing plays tend to help capitalize on athletic/talent advantages. In 2005, ND had 10 first down plays result in more than 10 yards gained, of those, 4 gained more than 15 yards, and of those, 3 gained more than 20 yards. And many, if not most, of those high-gaining 1st down plays were passes. In 2006, ND had 11 1st down plays gain more than 10 yards, of those, 6 gained over 15 yards, and of those, 3 gained over 20 yards, and of those, 1 gained over 30 yards. Just on 1st down plays, people! (And ND had many “big” plays in those games. Not so much in yesterday’s game.) In 2007, ND managed only 5 1st down plays that resulted in more than 10 yards gained, and of those, just 1 went for more than 20 yards. Weis was trying to get some of the big plays that allow a “better” more talented team to take over a game, but ND just isn’t “better” this year. But playing ball-control against a ball-control king is death.

Weis said multiple times last week that the Irish needed to score a lot of points in order to win. I think a lot of people have gotten it into their heads that 28 points is “a lot.” It’s not. And it’s not nearly enough. It’s just about exactly what Navy was dreaming about on Friday night because they (and Weis) probably figured the Midshipmen could score 28 points themselves. I think Weis meant “at least 35 in regulation” when he said “a lot.” But ND’s defense let Navy keep the ball too long and ND took too long to score, so there wasn’t much time to score “a lot” left over.

I don’t really care about the decision not to kick the field goal at the end of the game. It should never have been a decision to make. In the 4th quarter, Weis should have been trying to decide if he should put Clausen in for a few snaps or continue to rest him and give Bragg the thrill of a lifetime. But ND’s problems this year are too broad and too deep to allow Weis such luxurious “tough calls.”

The only issue I really take with Weis’ game plan come in the form of some sequencing, player selection, and that 1st faked field goal. In the case of the 1st faked field goal, the distance was such that ND should have just lined up in normal formation and given it a shot with a real runner running the ball rather than the relatively plodding Sharpley. I agree with not trying for the kick there because our kickers suck, and that wind was pretty stiff. I know. I sat in it for 4 hours. As for player selection, there was something really poetic about seeing Travis Thomas, a man I’m sure I’d love to have as a teammate, get stuffed at the goal line to end the game after Aldridge, Allen, and Hughes had so much success rushing the ball all day long. And in the case of sequencing, I just didn’t like the way Weis seemed to “group” some of his pass plays. The total pass plays would have been fine if they had been more “dissolved” within the 63 running plays. But overall, ND didn’t lose to Navy because of a bad game plan. ND lost to Navy because ND just isn’t very good this year (and that, of course, is on Weis’ hands), and Navy was “good enough.” Navy also wanted it more, but I’m sick of hammering players for taking no pride in their game play. We’re at a point in the season that I’m just looking forward to next year when a few of those bad apples will be gone.

Congratulations to Navy. They are my favorite opponent. I sat right behind the Midshipmen that were at ND to watch the game, among many of the Navy players’ parents, and the pride they all had in their eyes after the game was really nice to see. Like I’ve always said, I’d hoped Navy would win one of these game, I just hoped I’d never see it. Well, I saw it, and as frustrated as I am with ND’s season, I’m happy for the Midshipmen.

Update: Just in case all that wasn’t clear, I’d have still kicked the ball late in the 4th. But I’d have figured that the only way the ball goes thru the uprights is because God Himself didn’t want the streak to end.

Update 2: I keep forgetting that of the 28 points ND gave up, only 21 of them were given up by the D, so good for them, but they still didn’t do themselves or their team any favors by letting Navy hold onto the ball for so long and so often until late in the game. So I strike my comments about the D giving up 28 points to Navy. I still maintain that Navy was able to hold onto the ball way too long.

Want to know where I got all my stats? Here’s my worksheet.

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