Give us some mo’, Mo’!

Last week, upon the shoulders of Mo’ Crum, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish collided with victory with all the awkwardness of a 6th grade math clubber playing pick-up basketball in gym class. It was wonderful, it was glorious, and it was about as non-indicative of actual progress for a football team as any win could be. Yes, ND went into Bible Belt Conservatism mode offensively once an attacking ND defense knocked out UCLA’s one and only QB, but that’s just one of a multitude of bizarre circumstances, not the least of which is UCLA’s coaching ineptitude, that make that game so difficult to measure.

Now, going against a top 10 team in BC, things will be much more clear. From all we can tell, BC has a backup QB or 2 on scholarship, and their team hasn’t shown any tendency to suffer schizophrenia against any of their previous opponents. If ND shows true progress, this game can and should be competitive, giving ND a real chance to win. Despite the lack of recruiting efforts by certain coaches over the years, BC probably doesn’t have the same level of talent that ND does. Granted, BC is a veteran, disciplined squad with some extremely talented individuals, but over the entire spread of a roster, BC probably isn’t as talented as ND and probably hasn’t faced a team this year as talented as the Irish. Of course, with all that talent, if the Irish don’t show significant progress, BC will likely blow out ND.

Over the last few weeks, we’ve investigated a few metrics for the Irish:

• First, we looked at the ND kickoff teams to figure out just how bad they really are and how much they’re really costing the Irish.
• Next, we investigated the “ND Sack Bonus,” or just how much the poor performance of ND’s O-Line QB Protection improves the day of opposing defenses
• And then we looked at the execution of positive, negative, and really, really negative plays by the Irish offense.

Those 3 items provide pretty good numbers by which we can continue to measure ND’s progress, but we’re gonna need some mo’:

• Win: Always a great indicator. If you’re winning, you’re probably getting better, unless of course you’re coached by Ty Willingham.
• 3rd down efficiency - defense: Coming in with a national ranking of #95, ND’s allowing a miserable 44% of opponents’ 3rd downs to be converted to 1st downs. This against the 109th (GT), 14th (PSU), 13th (UM(s!)), 30th (MSU), 65th (PU), and 86th (UCLA) ranked teams in offensive 3rd down efficiency.
• 3rd down efficiency - offense: With a success rate that reminds me of the African American football player grad rate at Michigan (sucks!), Notre Dame is 118th in offensive 3rd down efficiency thus far against teams that rank 47th (GT), 12th (PSU), 81st (UM(s!)), 72nd (MSU), 18th (PU), and 1st (UCLA) in defensive 3rd down efficiency.
• Penalties: ND is currently ranked 91st in fewest penalties received (7.83/game) and 84th in fewest penalty yards received (63.17/game). If ND can limit themselves to 4 penalties, it will go a long way towards helping get a win against BC.
• Score: Duh, but look closer. ND is ranked 118th in scoring (11 ppg). So it would only take 2 TDs to bring the average up. We’ll set the bar higher: 25+ points will indicate real improvement against the #21 scoring defense in the country in BC (18.3 ppg).
• Pass Offense: BC is giving up 290+ yards a game in the air. Of course, they also have to defend a ton of passes because they tend to get on top of their opponents pretty quickly. If ND can get 240 yards of passing, that’ll be significant progress.
• Pass Defense: Meanwhile, ND’s pass defense is ranked #4 in the country, giving up just 49.07 yards a game. We’ll define progress here if Boston College achieves fewer than 270 yards passing.
• Rush Defense: Probably the biggest reason for the lofty #4 pass defense rating? The abysmal rush defense. Nobody need pass on the Irish right now while they give up 189.8 yards a game. Give up fewer than 150 yards, and that’ll be progress.

That should provide a pretty good set of items and stats to pour over on Sunday over beers. (I recommend Goose Island’s Harvest Ale. A perfect match for the changing weather.) Keep in mind, just because we’re still looking for “progress” outside of simply winning, that doesn’t mean we don’t think the Irish can win. Like I said before, ND is definitely, by leaps and bounds, the most talented team BC has faced this year (with the possible exception of Georgia Tech). And even though a ton of all that talent is very young, the young guys are also half way through their freshman or sophomore years.

Share This

• And The Quest Continues: Searching for “Progress”
• Fundamental Football: Still Seeking Progress
• YANDFYHC (Yet Another Notre Dame Football YouTube Highlight Clip)

Winning the UCLA game has sent the Loyal Sons spiraling into a depth of superstition not seen since Babe Ruth’s piano went missing. Biscuit thinks he should watch the game from the Rose Bowl. I think I should miss the first half eating prime beef and then franticly searching for a bar that carries the game. Bad Kermit thinks he should pick ND to lose.

The Games:

• Notre Dame vs. Boston College
• South Carolina vs. North Carolina
• UCF vs. South Florida

And the picks:

Share This

• HLS Expert Picks Week 6 Results: The Super Stealth Ninja Edition
• HLS Expert Picks Week 5 Results: Panzer March
• It’s Here! HLS Expert Picks are Here! Week 1 - 2007

Just as a refresher, here is a complete, all inclusive list of Notre Dame Football Rivals:

1. Southern Cal

And here’s a list of everyone that isn’t a rival. If you are not a rival, you shouldn’t feel bad. You also shouldn’t feel like we’re insulting you by saying you aren’t a rival. It’s not an attempt to disrespect you. It’s an attempt to fully appreciate and respect our rival. Anyway, here’s the list of non-rivals:

1. Everyone not named Southern Cal

The Roundup:

• A ND Student News Paper kid out-dweebed a BC Student News Paper kid, but at least he’s contrite.
• Booty, move your rear because your butt’s been kicked to the curb. Sanchez for Heisman!
• This is a rivalry game. For BC.
• I remember when “McDougal? Who the heck is that?” became “McDougal!“
• We should give Bemenderfer his own cooking show.
• Oh Wannstache, you sort of knew this was how things would go, didn’t you?
• Step 1) Admonish Coach. Step 2)… Step 3) Fire Coach!
• Hey, speaking of firing a coach, looks like Bruins Nation is doing all the work.
• Amen
• Tommy Kilborn, you are legend.

Share This

• Friday Roundup: The Biscuit Edition
• Friday Roundup: The “Pac 10 Primer” Edition
• Friday Roundup: The “Nobody’s In The Office” Edition

Apparently you shouldn’t get into a traffic discussion with JoePa. He may point his finger at you and scold you.

And, apparently, if you’re one young woman you might decide that that’s enough to make you call the cops.

I can’t imagine that just a little finger-wagging and a ‘Be Careful’ would cause all this. I’m thinking that JoePa is feeling the pressure, with all of the off-field problems he’s had to deal with lately, and he kinda flew off his 1000-year-old handle.

Maybe a &*#*( or a )@#(*&$#( and a few &*&$%$*!!! in there old Joe?

I think it’s probably time that Joe get out from behind the wheel and hire himself a driver. After all, it worked out well for Miss Daisie.

Thanks for the picture, MQ.

Share This

• ESPN.com Publishes “Dead Men Walking” Piece. Omits Joe Paterno. CFB World Confused.
• The HLS Totally Non-Homer Top 25 - Preseason Edition: #3 - LSU
• Honor in Recruiting

The NCAA’s ongoing investigation into Reggie Bush’s illegal arrangements with Uncles, Friends and upstart Sports Marketing Agencies has gained some traction lately, and it seems like the “Saint” may have some things to account for.

The story has been published all over, but new details have emerged, including the fact that the total value of the illegal ‘gifts’ was upwards of a quarter million dollars.  How does anyone not notice that a COLLEGE KID and his family HAVE $280,000 WORTH OF STUFF THEY DIDN’T HAVE BEFORE? Anyone? Seriously?  The NCAA also has a witness…

Lloyd Lake, who allegedly provided improper benefits to Bush in 2005, has agreed to meet with NCAA officials and give them evidence to help their investigation, Yahoo! Sports reported on its Web site, citing two unidentified sources.

Yahoo! Sports also reported it had acquired confidential e-mails from officers of New Era Sports & Entertainment, a marketing agency founded by Lake and Michael Michaels with cooperation from Bush and his stepfather, LaMar Griffin. The e-mails show the agency soliciting marketing and memorabilia deals on the running back’s behalf, Yahoo! Sports reported.

Lake and Michaels claimed more than a year ago that they provided money to Bush’s family as well as a home for which the family had failed to pay more than $50,000 in rent. The conflict was made public after Bush signed with another sports agent.

Potential ramifications for USC could be forfeited games.  For Reggie?  A lost Heisman and a whole lot of bad publicity. If Poodle knew anything about this, expect all hell to break loose in the USC ranks and Carroll to be forced to head south to San Diego.  Assuming he wouldn’t choose that route this year anyway.

Anyone ANYWHERE think that Joe McKnight didn’t speak with Reggie while being recruited? 

Looks like Reggie was involved in a lot of things more wrong than the Bush Push.  But the Push hurt the most.

EDIT:  “Stuff” is reported to be a Pimp-my-Ride style car, suits, airplane and hotel fares and other items along with $50K in rent for the Bush Family.  Niiiiiiiiiiiice.

Share This

• No related posts

Didn’t even know we did an Expert Picks last week, did ya?

Anyway, at this point, looks like The Bear has paid the price for his reverse karma picks against ND, and The Biscuit has taken the lead.

Share This

• HLS Expert Picks Week 7 Results: The “domer.mq Can Hardly Score Either” Edition
• HLS Expert Picks Week 5 Results: Panzer March
• HLS Expert Picks Week 1 Results: Start With a Dud!

I’m starting to wonder if we really are seeing the fall of an empire as it happens. Sure, Southern Cal is ND’s one and only rival, but I hate to see the walls crumble before ND could go and knock the Trojans off the pedestal.

Still, the Southern Cal fans are starting to see patterns that they don’t like. One of the founders of one of the most popular SC boards, Wild West Sports, has this to say (Hat tip: ugoirish)…

…when the adults (Orgeron, Chow, Davis) left the staff USC began exhibiting poor play in a number of ways. Undisciplined play.

He pointed out the turnovers. Pete Carroll said when he took over “it’s all about the ball” Remember last year when USC was not winning the TO battle anymore and Carroll was befuddled and confused? Said basically “well, we’ll keep doing what we do and it will turn around” Guess what? It really hasn’t. It didn’t last year and has not this year.

Turnover margin is the result of taking care of the ball on O but on D being in proper position, trusting the guy next to you, reacting at the right time, shutting down lanes and getting pressure on the QB. pressure on the QB as we know has been missing for a number of years. Started with problems in 2005 and got worse in 2006. Now it’s just as bad.

He pointed out close calls against Fresno, WSU and UW, then this year’s games. Games where teams that play disciplined ball don’t find themselves in dogfights week after week.

He would not go so far as to say USC is poorly coached because he has interviewsd to get and a staff to work for, but it’s pretty obvious that when you have more talent than the other team, but have this many losses or close games, it’s on the coaches.

[...]

One other thing I noticed and am noticign. The stadium is no longer full. Oh, it’s VERY full, the crowds are still large, but check it out. The buzz is gone. The anticipation not there. Idaho did not sell out, neither did WSU. I know, not attractive opponents and they don’t travel well. But Stanford, whoa, Stanford had probably 75,000 there. Good crowd by PAC-10 standards but USC has been selling 92,000 for games against anyone. I imagine that was likely the smallest USC crowd in 2-3 years. That thought occured to me in aobut the 2nd quarter Saturday.

I know, I know. The rah rah’s will tell me PC is now 62-7 or whatever and trust the coaches and he’s not an idiot. No, he’s not. But he has an ego and pride goeth before the fall. I believe the bible teaches that and it is right. PC has now lost to Stanford, UW, Oregon State, UCLA in the last 8 games. That would make them 4-4 in their last 8 PAC-10 contests. Clearly PAC-10 teams are onto PC and USC.

If anything, it looks like the bloom is off just a bit for the fans.

It also looks like the the “Pete Carroll to the Chargers” rumors/speculation doesn’t even bother to wait for the end of the season any more.

And one has to wonder if, on top of rumors and speculation about Carroll’s future, the news that the NCAA has had a “major breakthrough” in the Reggie Bush investigation might be getting a bit distracting.

At least the Southern Cal players know how to get away from it all.

No doubt this post reads like nothing but schadenfreude, but really it’s simple curiosity at this point. ND still hasn’t beaten SoCal since Bob Davie (!) was at the helm. And I’d just about kill for an offensive line that could do this…

And while the prospect of a currently 1-5 ND knocking off a high-performing Southern Cal seems improbable, I, for one, would prefer to finally end this recent streak of Southern Cal victories over the Irish when Southern Cal is at their best. Just another reason the Bush Push breaks my heart.

Share This

• Non-ND Teams I Want to See Win this Year*
• Finally, Someone Gets It: Thanks to the Dash
• Dillon Pep Rally Saga Continues

Eliminate the Negative…

In Charlie Weis’ latest interview on UND.com (I’d link, but UND.com has such a rotten interface that links are nearly useless), he mentions that the Line of Scrimmage in the UCLA game was “moving in the right direction,” meaning that even though the offense wasn’t tearing apart the UCLA defense, at least positive things were happening for the Irish and negative things, for the most part, were not.

It reminded me of how my 6th grade football coach would harp on us, over and over again, “you only need to get 3 yards!” He figured if you could always get 3 yards, then you were unstoppable in a football game. Not a novel theory, to be sure, but it stuck with me somewhere in the dark recesses of my mind between the total number of people born on this planet between the last regular season game for Ohio State in 2006 and last year’s National Championship (18,267,792), and the total caloric intake of an Arby’s 5-for-5 deal (1750).

Anyway, going with an old school theory like the “3 yards and a cloud of dust,” and Weis’ point that the offensive line seemed to be moving in the right direction, I decided to look and see if he was right, and if it really matters all that much.

I took every game played by the Irish in 2007 and looked at the yardage gained or lost by each play, and then threw each play in various buckets. For example, a completed pass for 9 yards would fit in the “>0″, “>=2″, “>=3″, “>=5″, and “<10" categories. I counted an interception as a 0 yards play for the offense that threw it. I counted a lost fumble based on the yardage gained or lost before the fumble occurred. All other plays were taken as total yards gained or lost during play. Plays that had live-ball, accepted penalties were not included in the calculations. You can see all of the numbers here: (you can also view the worksheet in another window by clicking here)

The first thing that jumps out to me is that, in the last 2 games, ND has managed around 30% more “positive plays” (plays that gained at least 1 yard) than they managed in each of the previous 4 games. (This may be easier to see if you click on the “pos_neg” tab at the bottom of the worksheet.) In the first 3 games, ND only managed to execute plays that resulted in positive yardage 30-34 times. In the games against Purdue and UCLA, ND has managed positive yardage plays 47 and 43 times respectively. That wasn’t a big surprise given the way ND passed in the 2nd half against Purdue, but I was surprised to see that result against UCLA. The game just didn’t “feel” like that. There weren’t any long drives by the ND offense, but they did nearly achieve the same number of positive plays against UCLA as they did against Purdue. So, as Charlie mentioned, the line of scrimmage was, in fact, moving in a more positive direction for ND against UCLA that it had been in the past. And that’s a pretty good performance against a pretty good defense.

Now let’s take a look at that old school “3 yards and a cloud…” theory of football. (The “3 yards” link at the bottom of the worksheet might help.) Within the context of the UCLA game, we get a bit of a surprise. ND actually didn’t achieve any more 3+ yard plays than they have in most of the other games. In all but the Purdue game, ND has managed just 24-28 plays that resulted in a gain of 3+ yards. (Against Purdue, they managed 44 such plays.) So, at least in the context of the UCLA game (where ND was +7 in turnover ratio), this theory didn’t quite hold. In fact, UCLA managed 35 3+ yardage plays to ND’s 26. Granted, the theory isn’t based on who has the most 3+ yardage plays, but you’d think the winner in that category would at least be competitive in the game (yeah, I know: 7 turnovers).

Just for kicks, I also looked at 5+ and 10+ yardage plays for ND and their opponents (”5 yards” and “10 yards” tabs). And in the context of the UCLA game, I was surprised to see that ND had one of their worst showings all year in both categories, achieving just 13 plays that gained 5 or more yards and 4 plays that gained 10 or more yards. Overall, the offense was able to kill some significant clock time in the 2nd half, so I figured they’d have a few more solid 5-10 yard plays to make up for the missing 3 yarders. Meanwhile, the ND defense still allowed about their usual number of 5 and 10 yard gainers.

Now for the really big difference (”negatives” tab). In a game like the one between ND and UCLA, it was vital not to make mistakes, and ND managed to do just that while UCLA, with their walk-on QB, imploded (with a lot of help from a (finally!) nasty, attacking ND defense). ND only had 6 plays that resulted in a loss of more than 2 yards, and 3 plays that resulted in a loss greater than 5 yards. They had no plays resulting in more than 10 yards lost. In fact, in the MSU, Purdue, and UCLA games, they’ve suffered only 1 play that has resulted in more than 10 yards lost. That’s a big improvement over the prior 3 weeks, during which ND suffered 7 plays that resulted in more than 10 yards lost. Think about that: On top of all the interceptions and turnovers, ND’s managed to average 2.3 “drive annihilators” in the first 3 games. They’re only averaging .33 such plays in the last 3 games.

ND hasn’t become a consistently productive offense yet, but at least in the last 3 games, they’ve significantly reduced the demoralizing plays. That alone gives the team a much better shot at winning games. The offense is able to build more yardage, and the defense gets put in better and better positions. And as the UCLA game shows, if ND can eliminate the big mistakes, and play some solid defense, they are at least competitive. Really, the performance against UCLA wasn’t half bad, because once the walk-on QB started playing for UCLA and ND got up by 2 TDs, it was clear to everyone on Earth that Weis wasn’t going to risk a big, game-changing play by throwing the ball all over the field. UCLA could expect run on just about every ND offensive snap, stack the box, pinch the LBs, and let their already excellent run-supporting safeties attack the rushing lanes. If the Irish do begin to consistently produce on offense, they should be more than just “competitive.” They should be able to win consistently, especially against the remaining 6 opponents. Hopefully we’ll see evidence of that against BC. ND has shown they can run (against MSU), they can pass (against Purdue), and they can play keep-away even when a good defense knows it is coming (against UCLA). It’s time to put it all together.

Share This

• And The Quest Continues: Searching for “Progress”
• In Pursuit of Progress: Gimme Some Mo’
• Friday Roundup: The “You’ve Already Left For The Lake” Edition

BEAT FREDO!

Share This

• Oregon/BYU Dance Off Sours. No Plans for Pants Off. Yet.
• Dear Miami: Now THIS is How You Discipline Thugs
• Friday Roundup: The Geeks Ruin Everything Edition

…you can take care of that, Russ.

How do ya like my funny hat now?

This is the year of “Any Given Saturday.” Parity is taking hold on our glorious game, and soon we’ll be celebrating National Championships won by a team with an 8-5 record. Unless of course everyone just starts scheduling like Michigan (sucks!), and beats their cupcakes.

Here’s how we see it all…

1) LSU
25 (tie)) Everybody else.

In a world where South Florida is considered a top team, and people are talking about a NC run for a first year coach at BC, and Ty Willingham nearly beats a Southern Cal that then goes to lose to a 40-point dog in Stanford, it’s the only rational way to look at things. Anyone can beat anyone, except for LSU. They withstood an attack of the Turtle and The Timmy!, and played with a gilded set of brass balls the size of Jupiter about which epic poems will be written noting the tendency of stunning SEC sirens wearing starchy, flat-billed hats to worship those balls. They’re #1, and, really, nothing else matters. And even then, the Tigers still have some glaring problems as a football team. So it wont surprise us at all when everyone is ranked #1 next week. Or maybe we should rank everyone #26. I’m so confused.

Is this better for college football? Is the near-total lack of a real juggernaut a fair price for a more “competitive” football landscape? Has a competitive college football program become a commodity?

Share This

• And So It’s Down To Ten…
• The HLS Totally Non-Homer Top 25 - Week 1
• The HLS Totally Non-Homer Top 25 - Week 4

Irish win! Irish win!
It’s all I could think, hear, say and feel as we walked out of the North gate of the Rose Bowl late Saturday night.  We won.

It was a long, full day.  And while not the prettiest game in the world (what did you all expect, us to roll through a Top Tier D with 500 yards of Total O and rack up 48 points?  C’mon now, we’re looking for progress and W’s, not miracles all of a sudden), it was a win.  A good, solid win and one we (all) needed pretty badly.

The day started off with some sweet tailgating south of the stadium.  We got a few heckles here and there, but generally the UCLA crowd was just a crowd of decent drunk fans listening to rap on their twinny-twin-twins with a full DJ setup. Some did think that our limo made us look pretentious.  I just thought it made us look rich. 

One ‘original’ heckler kept giving us a “Geooooooooooooorge O’Learyyyyyyyyy” from across the way while we tailgated.  I actually enjoyed that.  But when I retorted with “Zeroooooooooo National Championshiiiiiiiiiips!” he didn’t like that much.  And his response was “100!!! 100 National Championships!!!!”

Somebody tell this dude that when talking trash about football, Women’s Water Polo and Badminton NC’s don’t count.

Anyway, a great day for tailgating.  Pure, blue skies, 80 degrees and burgers on the mini-grill.   We were ready to go.

The crowd was pretty fired up.  Though not sold out physically, all tickets (ticket brokers suck) were sold so technically it was.  It was just shy of 80,000 fans in the stadium and people get fir-ed up to play ND.   So a lot of energy and excitement prior to kickoff.  We had a pretty solid contingent of about 20,000 ND faithful I’d say.  And while we started off a little quiet, we picked up the loudness big time in the mid second quarter and rocked it from there.   At kick-off, I was fired up, and we were under way.

We all know what the first half brought. And I was okay with it. I knew we’d have a tough time with their D.  But we had a few decent drives, our D was playing well and we put up the 6 points to stay in it .

At half time I said was all we needed was a 3 and out and a quick break for a TD.  We got both.  This was a sweet, sweet image for this team. 

And the pushups began…

We held on, clawed and scraped our way to a solid win.  While clearly not pretty, I really enjoyed watching ND’s confidence build as the game progressed.  The Defense especially played with confidence and aggression and you could almost feel the changes taking place within this team.  Last week WAS a turning point, and this game helped keep that momentum, regardless of stats or finesse points.  We still have work to do, but you can see the progress being made.  The potential.

One of the most fun/funny moments in the game was when the USC-Stanford score was announced.  UCLA doesn’t love Notre Dame.  Nor does ND have a love affair for the Bruins.  But both sets of fans are united in their common loathing of USC.  And that showed just after the Stanford upset was announced…

Both teams cheering like they were going to pull in a W, when only one was.   But, the crowd had one thing upon which everyone could agree…

Share This

• 2006 Freshmen Will Not Win American Idol
• OSU vs. LSU: Battle of the Brains?
• Letter to the Editor

With a national, independent schedule like Notre Dame’s, it’s interesting to see the mirror-images that present themselves in the form of opponents that seem just like each other. Michigan State always plays us tough, and then usually finds a way to melt down later in the season. Georgia Tech manages to do much the same thanks to something Orson calls “The Chan Gailey Equilibrium.” Purdue is the most excruciatingly boring college football program in the world, and they’re closely matched with Boston College. Also, both Purdue and BC think they’re rivals with Notre Dame. Heh.  At any rate, Purdue East week usually marks the 2nd most boring week in college football blogging.  It’s a great time for me to analyze kicking game numbers, I guess.
Like they say in the restaurant business, “Location, location, location!” And for Boston College, that’s really all they’ve got going for them. About a mile away from their campus, you can get the best lamb kebabs this side of the Atlantic Ocean. Yeah, they’re a highly ranked team, but they’re highly ranked in a year where that really doesn’t seem to much matter. Does anyone really believe this squad would give #1 LSU or even #9 Florida a good game? But at least after a BC game at Chestnut Hill, you can head into town for a good meal. What’s Purdue got to offer you? The Wendy’s on exit 8?

Pictured Here: Some guy you’ve never heard of, but he could probably tell you how to get to Mike’s bakery.

Share This

• D’oh. It’s Purdue Week. Thank God Heroes is Back.
• Weekly Hoops Post
• The HLS Totally Non-Homer Top 25 - Week 5: Does It Really Matter After 1 and 2?

It’s gotta be asked. This is a team that’s had a better run in the last 5 years than any other program. Pete Carroll has recruited better than any coach in the country since he began his tenure at Southern Cal. They’ve had more Heisman candidates than any other program in the last 5 years. And yet they managed to nearly lose to a 2-2 Washington who’s signature win this season was against Boise State, and then they actually lost to a 1-3 Stanford. WTF?

Well, a list of possible excuses explanations:

• Lane Kiffin: In 2006, Lane Kiffin was co-offensive coordinator of Southern Cal. In 2007, Lane Kiffin is the Head Coach of the Oakland Raiders. In 2006, Southern Cal was ranked 21st in total offense, averaging 391 yards a game. In 2007, Southern Cal is currently ranked 19th in total offense averaging 461 yards a game. Scoring offense was ranked 20th in 2006, and is ranked 18th this year. And, by the numbers, there’s almost no real difference between offensive production this year versus last year’s numbers. I don’t think the loss of Kiffin has amounted to much change in production.
• Injuries: The Southern Cal squad has been hit pretty hard by injuries. Already reeling from lost players on the offensive line and the defensive squad, now starting QB JD Booty has a broken finger on his throwing hand. Booty injured his finger early in last night’s loss, and went on to throw 4 picks in the game. Still, with an offensive line that’s able to open holes in which you could safely land a Boeing, and more thoroughbreds in the running backs corps than probably any other program in the country, Southern Cal should still have been able to control both the Stanford and Washington games with ease.
• Penalties: Pete Carroll is famous for running “intense,” but “fun,” practices. The Southern Cal program is also known for being a bit foot-loose and fancy-free. And here’s where things might be biting them in the butt this year. This program may, may, suffer from a lack of discipline. In 2006, Southern Cal already ranked in at #81 in fewest penalties per game with an average of 6.23. This year, they rank in at 110, with an average of 9 penalties a game. So they’re committing 50% more penalties or “mental mistakes” this year versus last. Even worse, Southern Cal is now ranked 117th in the country in total penalty yards per game, losing an average of 86 yards. They were ranked 67th last year, losing 50.15 yards a game.
• Turnovers: Again, falling under the “discipline” column, and, again, plummeting in the Southern Cal record books for 2007. In 2006, Southern Cal was excellent at protecting the ball. They were tied for 15th in the nation with only 18 turnovers for the year. (#1, Michigan, lost 12.) This year, they’ve already got 14 turnovers through 5 games, and are ranked 90th in turnovers lost. Meanwhile, they weren’t really all that good in gaining turnovers last year (ranked 70th), and yet have managed to get worse this year (ranked 102nd).

So why the lack of discipline?  Was Lane Kiffin a big-time stickler for discipline, and now that he’s gone, Good Time Pete hasn’t reigned his boys in for 2007?  Is the empire, as empires tend to do, finally falling?  Are the injuries mounting up, and causing younger guys to step in, thus allowing for more stupid mistakes by dumb rookie-types?  I’m not sure.  One thing I’ve also noticed (and can’t really back up with stats and, thus, will simply look like a Southern Cal Hater/Notre Dame Homer), is that Southern Cal NFL Rookies/2nd year players seem to have some “adjustment issues” (See also: Leinart, Matt).  Can’t help but wonder if that sweet, sweet Cali ‘tude might be a bit of a double-edged sword in the world of football.  Attractive as all heck to big-time recruits, limiting to potential.

There’s no denying the massive quantity of success that Pete Carroll has practically bathed in while coaching Southern Cal, but you have to wonder if the good times could come to an end pretty soon.  As an ND fan, I’d happily take some rough times if I could also have a National Championship and a Heisman Candidate every year for several years in a row.

Share This

• Readers Ask, HLS Answers: What’s Wrong With ND’s Rushing?
• Corrections…
• Ann Arbor “Just a Friendly Person”

Pete’s just totally pumped about what happened this weekend in LA.

So, I didn’t define my progress indicators before the UCLA game. Sorry. Real life likes to intrude on my hobbies sometimes. So let’s just take a look at some team statistics for the season, and compare them to the game last night, and see what we see.

Indicators:

1. Win: Season previous to UCLA Game: Winless UCLA Game: Win. Nice. I like where this is going so far.
2. Kickoff return: Earlier this week, I took a look at ND’s kickoff teams, and found that ND typically receives a kickoff at the 9 yard line, returns it 19 yards, and starts their drives after kickoffs from the 28 yards line. For the UCLA game, ND received the kick, on average, on the 5 yard line, returned it for 24 yards, and started their drives from the 29 yard line. Really, this isn’t tremendously improved, though Armando Allen’s 31 yard return was one of those “momentum” building type returns. It was really solid, and came at a good time in the game.
3. Kickoff defense: Also, in the same post linked above, I looked at the kickoff defense of ND, and found that, on average, ND kicks the ball to the 11 yard line, allows the ball to be returned 25 yards, and allows the opponent to start drives after kickoffs from the 36 yard line. Against UCLA, ND kicked the ball to about the 11 yard line, allowed a 20 yard return, and allowed the Bruins to start drives after kickoffs from their 31 yard line. Not a ton of improvement, but the Bruins never had one of those momentum gathering returns that have plagued the Irish this season. In every other game that the Irish have shown any level of competence this season (Early in PSU, MSU, and Purdue), they’ve allowed long returns at terrible times. Marginal improvement here.
4. Sacks Allowed: Earlier this week I also looked at how awful our pass protection has been, and discovered that it was just as bad as Bruce Davis thought it was. ND had, after 5 games, essentially spotted their opponents an extra 3 sacks per game. Going into the UCLA game, where they averaged a little over 3 sacks a game without having played ND, this stat didn’t bode well. I figured the ND offensive line was good for 6 sacks or more this weekend. But, in fact, ND only gave up 3 sacks for the game. Bruce Davis had them all. He’s got a huge mouth, but he’s a really good DE. And the OL had so many people helping them out I thought they were trying to relive Hands Across America, but hey, in this particular game, it worked. ND also practically abandoned the passing game in the 2nd half. (More on this later.)
5. Rushing Defense: ND’s rushing defense had been terrible up to this weekend, allowing just over 200 yards a game. This weekend, against a team averaging just a shade under 200 rushing yards per game, I’d have expected this to bode poorly for the Irish. Yet again, ND surprised, managing to keep UCLA to 89 yards rushing on 37 attemtps (UCLA’s 2nd highest rushing attempt total of the season). And even if you take negative rushing plays (like all those QB sacks) out of the equation, UCLA only managed to gain 134 yards of positive rushing. This is an excellent improvement over the previous 5 weeks.
6. Time of Possession: With the way this game was going (really, it was a battle of 2 defenses), ND managed to hold onto the ball longer than UCLA, 32:02 to 27:58. That’s a key piece of the puzzle when the ND defense was really leaving everything out on the field (they looked exhausted early in the 4th). Even though the ND offense didn’t produce a ton of yards, they did managed to give the ND defense some key breathers late in the game.
7. Tackling: This isn’t a quantitative stat, clearly, but our tackling technique still blows. Ambrose Wooden seems to think all 190 lbs of him will take a running back down with a good shoulder hit. Way too much of this stuff all over the field, but there are also examples by guys like Toryan Smith, Kerry Neal, etc… of knocking the snot out of guys and wrapping up. Still, among just about everyone on this team, they’re all tackling too high.
8. Passing: Jimmy Clausen continues to keep a high passing percentage, completing 64% of his passes in this game. The passes were almost all very short gainers, but in a game like this, being the team that makes the fewest mistakes is a very good thing. Some people have already looked at Clausen’s passing in the 2nd half as a matter of yardage and contended that we should have played Sharpley. I don’t get that at all. It was pretty clear when UCLA had to go to their emergency back-up-back-up QB that, unless something went really wrong, UCLA wasn’t going to score again. So ND called pass plays only 8 times in the 2nd half, and played ball control offense. Not only that, but the 1 pass thrown by ND in the 4th quarter was by Armando Allen on a gadget play for 10 yards. Clausen had 8 total pass plays called in the 2nd half, he completed passes in 6 of those plays, took 1 sack, and had one incompletion.
9. Snapping: I’m almost certain we’ve had a bad shotgun snap in every game this season. Last night was no exception. Also no exception: the center thinking it was the QB’s fault. Someone on the coaching staff needs to correct this immediately. It’s going to cost the team a chance at a win this season, if it hasn’t already.
10. Stupid Penalties: I was just about to say that ND finally had a game without a dumb penalty, then I realized that Eric Olsen decided to finally block somebody, 3 seconds after the whistle blew. Dumb.

Ok, since I didn’t pre-define the metrics, and mostly I’m just hung-over from celebratory schnapps, I think I’ll just quit here. I’m not really going to grade this thing out. We won. That’s all the progress we need this week. We’ll do better next week, we promise. I’ll try to keep real life/work at bay long enough to blow everyone away with my football insight just in time for the Fredo game. I’ll just say I’m really happy for the players. They’ve shown, by and large, that they’ve got no quit in them, and it paid off. They got a win - an ugly win against a bad team with a walk-on, third string QB, but it’s still a win.

Probably the best thing that could be said about the game last night is the way the defense played after the starting QB for UCLA went down: They played exactly how a good team should play against a bad team - they slaughtered them. The ND defense smelled blood in the water and, for the first time since the 2006 Penn State game, put their foot on the throat of the opponent. It’s great to see. Too often in the last decade, ND has allowed poor teams to look good. Not last night.

Oh, and how awesome is Trevor Laws? I want a #98 jersey.

Go IRISH, Beat Fredo!

Share This

• And The Quest Continues: Searching for “Progress”
• Mmmmm… Optimism…
• Snip, Snip…

I think that the 2nd half last week was a turning point for this team.   The team, for the first time, felt momentum.  They felt fire, and they felt like they could actually win a game. 

Who sparked that belief?  Two players on the minds of UCLA’s defensive back field:  Golden Tate and Duval Kamara

The Orange County Register talked to some of the Bruins about what they’ve seen on tape.  A few highlights…

“He’s [Tate] brought an explosion to their offense,” free safety Dennis Keyes said. “They have a deep threat now. That helps any offense, when you have that deep threat you can stretch the field and that opens up a lot of things.

“That’s something we’re going to have to prepare for this week — being able to guard all levels of the field. He came in and really changed that offense.”

[Up until Purdue...] They couldn’t pass the football, and they couldn’t rush the football. They couldn’t make a play.  But that changed with the emergence of Tate and Duval Kamara, another freshman receiver. In the second half of the loss at Purdue, Notre Dame passed for 298 yards.

Both have shown that a comfort level within the offense is not a prerequisite to making plays. Kamara, who has 11 receptions for 116 yards, is 6-foot-5 and athletic. Tate has the ability to run by opposing defenders, which shows clearly on tape.

UCLA defensive coordinator DeWayne Walker said Tate will be the fastest outside receiver the Bruins have had to defend this season.

“These are some really good young players, and we are concerned. We’re going to have to treat them like they’re seniors. We’re not going to treat them like they’re freshman,” Walker said. “We’re going to have to line up and play them like they’ve been there for a long time.”

So what’s so interesting about this?  Not that Tate is fast, or that Kamara can play.  We all knew that.  What’s interesting is that our upcoming opponents are focused in on Freshman.  Freshman.  They are respecting the talent and acknowledging that these young players are by themselves changing the Irish offense.  There’s no Brady Quinn or the Shark or Darius on the lips of UCLA defenders.  Just a couple of kids that just 5 weeks ago had never played a single down in college football.  5 WEEKS AGO.

I know things are bad, but it’s things like this that only point to a brighter future.  When Notre Dame is bringing the fastest receiver a team has faced to the Pac-10, you know that times are changing.  We have athletes now that we haven’t had in 10 years.

And let’s face it, the kid’s got wheels.

Combining our Frosh and Sophomore classes with our current recruiting class, assuming it holds together, will bring the talent level at ND to a level I have not seen.  Ever.  There won’t be a lot of experience, and it will take that experience to make this team great.  But the team will be better. Then really good.  Then awesome. 

This season is what happens when Freshman are the guys the other team is worrying about.  When Freshman have to be the game-changers and breakers.  It’s a tall order to fill, and so far the talent hasn’t made up for the lack of experience. But I think last week was a turning point in the development of this team.  They started to have that fire and determination.  All sparked by a couple of 18 year old frosh. 

In two years, we’ll see what it’s like when it’s those same players, as Juniors, are the concern for our opponents. 

Look out.

Share This

• The Status? On the way…
• Llloyd Carr is a Quitter
• More On Why You Will Regret Playing For Ron Zook