Troy Smith Picked 152 Picks After Brady Quinn, 5 After Roy Hall

That's right. The Roy Hall, #3 WR, The Ohio State University.

I've been trying to write up a reaction to the Brady Quinn/NFL Draft story for days now. If the millions of readers who obsess over my words on this blog don't know what I think, they wont know what to think. We don't want that, do we? That's right, we don't want that. Good.

But let's face it, the story was completely obvious. You could see it coming a mile away. Yes, it was a surprise, but only in the "Harry saves Harry by traveling back in time" style of surprise, not the "Whoa! Vader is Luke's father! I never saw it coming!" sort of surprise. And within 15 minutes of Brady Quinn's draft day saga coming to an end, the world had already digested it. And by then the world was also suffering from massive gastric reflux largely due to that incredibly lame "draft headquarters" dramatization that ESPN kept showing. It's like they hired the writers of Days of Our Lives to team up with the Bristol High School Drama Department to produce that bit of detritus. If we ever catch Osama Bin Laden, we should make him watch that clip over and over again until he kills himself by swallowing his socks.
So with that said, here's a quick look at what could have happened:

• Quinn gets drafted by the Raiders. I'm drinking before noon, celebrating the #1 pick and worrying over how the Raiders keep him alive long enough to throw the ball to Randy Moss.
• Quinn gets drafted by the Lions. I'm drinking by noon, wondering where the Lions will trade Brady after they destroy his career.
• Quinn gets passed up by the Raiders and the Lions(Thank God), and the Browns pick him. I'm drinking before noon, worrying that this is a better place for Quinn than the Raiders, but still a bit worrisome. Afterall, it's still the expansion-team Browns. How will they keep him alive? There are still holes at OL!
• Quinn gets drafted by the Vikings. No, actually, this was never going to happen. They already think they've got some diamond in the rough at QB, and they really couldn't ever pass up on Adrian Petersen. I'm drinking before noon.
• Quinn gets drafted by the Dolphins. I'm drinking before noon and contemplating a late November trip to Miami for some sun and sand and watching the best ND QB I've ever seen play in person play for a program on the rise, despite having Cam Cameron as a head coach. They'll fire him before year 3 anyway.

But wait! There's one variable that we may have foreshadowed but not fully explored here:

• Quinn gets passed up by the Dolphins because Cam Cameron is and always will be Cam Cameron and is and will always possess an infinite aptitude for stupidity, and Quinn begins to "free-fall" as teams scramble to work out trades to get up and grab Quinn at the bargain-basement level of sub-top-10 pick while balancing a very clear need for top defensive players while the gettin's good. I'm drinking by noon.

See, we all knew that was a possibility. But we also figured it wasn't the most likely possibility. Surely nobody is actually letting Cam Cameron call the shots in Miami. He's simply a puppet, right? Kinda like the Queen.

So really, all of this isn't a "shocker." It's a mildly entertaining episode of Murder She Wrote at best, but let's take a look at what did happen, just to better understand it.

1. The Raiders draft Russel rather than Quinn. Makes sense. They had to take a QB this year. Leinart's really sticking in their craw right now. And so why not take the sexy pick? I think Quinn's the better QB, but Russel is the crowd favorite. Sell tickets now because you might be dead tomorrow - especially if you currently own the Raiders.
2. The Lions draft a receiver. Again. Sure, this guy is probably a once-in-a-generation talent, but who's going to throw this guy the ball? At any rate, this pick makes sense like so many other unfathomable things make sense any time you place Matt Millen into the equation. I wish he'd been the GM of the Lions when I was taking freshman year engineering track calculus.
3. The Browns take the best OL in the country. I have to admit, I didn't think that would happen, but it impressed me. The Browns were destroyed last year with a lousy offensive line. This pick addressed a real need, and as we see below, the first round of this draft seemed to be all about addressing actual needs. (A change that I believe parity and the salary cap really expedited.)
4. Tampa Bay grabs a defensive guy. They needed one, and they needed another QB on the roster like I needed another zit in 9th grade.
5. Arizona takes a very good OL. They need about 4 more of them. They've already got Leinart who is looking like he could be a very good NFL QB if he can remain vertical. They also probably had to promise such a move to Edge.
6. Washington takes a safety. They've already got a QB that they need to prove was worth the trouble. They also really needed a safety.
7. Minnesota takes Petersen. They needed a homerun threat, and when Peterson was there, they had to take him. If they'd taken Quinn, they'd still have nobody who could catch his passes. One step at a time, kids. Plus they think they've got a diamond in the rough at QB anyway.
8. Atlanta takes a DE. Sort of an odd choice (and a stretch considering they moved up to get him), but still, the Falcons aren't willing to give in on the Ron Mexico Experiment (though I think everyone else is). Can't draft a QB here.
9. And so we get to Miami. Time for Quinn to pop a tic tac before his impending hug-out with the commish. But then Cam Cameron pulls a Cam Cameron and drafts a freaking special teams specialist who fears running into the middle like I fear running into my exes. All because Cam has known the Ginn family for 10 years. Makes you wonder just how much supplemental income Ginn Sr. isn't reporting to the IRS these days if he can grease the skids for his son with an entire NFL organization. That OSU deal is paying off! And so now the free fall begins. And the Browns, apparently, have hit the phones. Who'd have expected this? Certainly not the Browns. Suddenly, the Philly area radio stations are drowning in their own saliva at the thought that Quinn could fall all the way to #26 and become the heir to McNabb's throne. This seemed ridiculous to me, and then I realize that, unless some team trades up to pick off Quinn, nobody between here and Chicago really, truly needs a QB.
10. Houston just can't take a QB right now. They've got way bigger problems. Oh, and they passed on Texas' favorite QB last year.
11. San Fran is still having to deal with the absurd contract they gave to their current QB.
12. Buffalo - A Big maybe, but they've got to fill a big hole at running back due to free agency losses.
13. St. Louis - Has a QB. That's all I know. And they're St. Louis. A lovely town, but not one about which I know anything more.
14. The Jets - I really thought they might take Quinn now. Only because I use logic and can actually see that they need a QB. The entire Jets organization think they already have a QB. They're wrong. The Jets fans should be pissed.
15. Pittsburgh has a QB. Albeit a brain damaged QB with very poor decision making skill, but he's got a jersey and a soup commercial deal. Oh, and a Super Bowl Ring.
16. Green Bay has Favre. Still. And a QB behind him that everyone wants to be able to follow in Bret's massive footsteps. It's gonna be cold in Green Bay for a long, long time.
17. Denver. Their whole QB thing went toppsy turvey last year when they ousted Jake the Snake for a kid that played at freaking Vandy. Wow. You can't take a 1st round QB the year after something like that.
18. Cincinnati has possibly the best overall talent at QB already, so long as his leg holds up.
19. Tennessee has "the next Mike Vick" at QB today.
20. The NY Giants can't draft another QB for 20 years. It says so in Manning Jr.'s contract or something.
21. And then comes Jacksonville. At this point, I'm thinking that Quinn may have just fallen into a great little situation. Jack Del Rio apparently loves Quinn (but the empty suits still love Byron "Slo Mo" Leftwich). Quinn would have some great targets and a supporting defense that hits harder than possibly any other squad in the league. Nice weather and golfing to boot. But a suit overrules Del Rio, and they draft a safety who hits like he doesn't have any marbles left - because he doesn't have any marbles left. Del Rio starts looking for staff openings for the 2008 season.
22. Dallas is on the clock. Again, another very intriguing situation. Quinn would get back arguably his favorite target in Jeff Fasano. He'd also be moving from the highest profile college team to the highest profile NFL franchise - something the Cowboys' owner probably really likes. Plus, the QB situation in Dallas is questionable at best. Tony Romo's carriage may have already become pumpkin pie by now since NFL DCs have had time to adjust. This could be one heck of an opportunity - one that may make The Big Tuna wish he'd not been so hasty in his retirement. But, of course, the Browns swoop in and make a deal here (see the linked story above), and the rest is history. I can finally get up from the couch and get some more beers and I can stop watching ESPN (please, Lord, can we just make the NFL network a broadcast station?).

So, the story that ESPN and most of the rest of the media try to sell is that Quinn was passed up by 21 teams on Saturday and was in danger of falling into the 2nd round. But if you really review what happened, only 3 teams passed up on Quinn. Another team, the Miami Dolphins, decided to lay a temporal marker down so they could look back in 10 years and say, "There. That's why the Dolphins now play in Toronto."

Sometimes things just work out. And after Quinn was drafted by his boyhood idols, I thought that this whole thing was just a little bit of serendipity on an otherwise unremarkable draft day. Brady wouldn't have to play for the Lions (always good), he wouldn't have to deal with the pressure of being the #1 pick in the draft (I'm a bit superstitious about that sort of thing), he doesn't have to drown underneath Cam Cameron's "tutelage," and he gets to play for his hometown team behind a much improved offensive line. But then news came out of the Randy Moss trade to the Patriots, and I realized that this was more than chance, this was an act of God. Good freaking luck, JaMarcus Russell.

I think we've all learned a few things here: 1) ESPN producers think that the dialog from the 3 Star Wars prequels was pretty sweet. 2) The level of Parity in the NFL and the salary cap have made it necessary for most teams (read, anyone who's won any games in the last 10 years) to pick draft selections based on actual need. That means drafting linemen and defensive guys in the high picks when you need them. Otherwise you become Detroit. And how often does Barry Sanders come up in the draft?