He got me thinking real hard. Which is difficult to do. So I ran some analyses comparing OSU's Troy Smith, the runaway Heisman favorite, with our own Brady Quinn. I ran the numbers on performance in basic statistical areas across a few different sets of competition:
- "Bad Competition" - For Smith this includes Northern Illinois, Cincinnati and Bowling Green and for Quinn this includes Michigan State, Purdue and Stanford.
- "Good Competition" - Smith played Texas, Penn State and Iowa while Quinn played Georgia Tech, Penn State and Michigan (granted, PSU could be considered 'bad', but go along with me here).
- Against PSU, the two players' only common opponent thus far.
- Average across all games.
If you look at each of these areas, you can see that Quinn and Smith have had very comparable years. BQ completes more passes for more yards across all competition, and throws for about the same # of touchdowns. Smith throws fewer passes, which means he's not leaned on as much as Quinn, but he does have a higher completion percentage. And both leaders throw about the same # of interceptions. (Ratings are shite to me, I include them only bc people would say 'what about the ratings?' to which I'd respond 'bite me, geek'). Quinn obviously had the better game against PSU as well, and we'll get another barometer of comparative talent when OSU takes on Johnelle's crumbling MSU squad.
|
Competition |
CMP |
ATT |
YDS |
CMP% |
TD |
INT |
RAT |
|
|
|
Bad |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Smith |
|
18.67 |
25.00 |
230.33 |
75.67 |
2.67 |
0.00 |
191.65 |
|
Quinn |
|
25.33 |
37.00 |
289.00 |
68.30 |
3.33 |
0.33 |
162.07 |
|
Difference (BQ-TS) |
|
6.67 |
12.00 |
58.67 |
-7.37 |
0.67 |
0.33 |
-29.58 |
|
|
Good |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Smith |
|
15.00 |
24.33 |
190.00 |
61.30 |
2.33 |
0.67 |
150.75 |
|
Quinn |
|
24.00 |
40.67 |
255.67 |
59.97 |
2.00 |
1.00 |
125.97 |
|
Difference (BQ-TS) |
|
9.00 |
16.33 |
65.67 |
-1.33 |
-0.33 |
0.33 |
-24.78 |
|
|
PSU |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Smith |
|
12.00 |
22.00 |
115.00 |
54.50 |
1.00 |
2.00 |
95.27 |
|
Quinn |
|
25.00 |
36.00 |
287.00 |
69.40 |
3.00 |
0.00 |
163.91 |
|
Difference (BQ-TS) |
|
13.00 |
14.00 |
172.00 |
14.90 |
2.00 |
-2.00 |
68.64 |
|
|
Average |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Smith |
|
16.83 |
24.67 |
210.17 |
68.48 |
2.50 |
0.33 |
171.20 |
|
Quinn |
|
24.67 |
38.83 |
272.33 |
64.13 |
2.67 |
0.67 |
144.02 |
|
Difference (BQ-TS) |
|
7.83 |
14.17 |
62.17 |
-4.35 |
0.17 |
0.33 |
-27.18 |
*Quinn Advantages in BOLD.
About the only place Smith has an advantage is the W column, with 1 more than Quinn. And that's why he's #1 in the Heisman race. Until Michigan beats OSU in the regular season finale, and I strongly believe they will, Quinn will be in Smith's shadow. But so long as Brady keeps throwing for 250-300 yards and 2-3 touchdowns a game, there's no way Smith will keep up statistically. Whether or not the media follows any of this the bigger question, as the Heisman is just like the polls today: it doesn't really matter how good you are, so long as you start up top and don't screw up too bad. NIU's Wolfe could rush for 7 MILLION yards and he still wouldn't win the Heisman if OSU goes undefeated. ND and Quinn had their screwup and were punished for it. If OSU avoids their own, the National Championship game and Heisman are in the bag.
EDIT 1: Looking back at this, I think the most telling stats are how the QB's performed against the 'Good' competition, and against the same competitor PSU. As you can see above, Quinn is HANDS DOWN better against the good teams. He averages out at 9 more completions for 65 more yards against the more solid competitors, and is virtually the same on %, TD and INT's. Smith seems to be padding his numbers with the 'Bad' games, and yet he STILL doesn't match Quinn. Heisman pundits suck. The Biscuit rules.
By domer.mq October 11, 2006 - 2:04 pm
Man, I knew an MBA was worth something.
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By Kilted Domer October 11, 2006 - 2:53 pm
Too bad there’s not some sort of statistical study you can do to compare our Brady to the other front-runners in Johnson, Slaton, Wolfe and Peterson.
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By The Biscuit October 11, 2006 - 5:55 pm
I’m sure I could run some type of correlation to figure out the translation of QB yards/TDs/INTS to Receiving/Rushing Yards/TD’s/Fumbles. But I don’t think I have it in me…
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By Irish Round Table » Blog Archive » Heisman Rankings Contradict Themselves October 12, 2006 - 1:14 am
[...] It is clear that Brady Quinn has better numbers than Troy Smith in every category outside of the win column. Her Loyal Sons provides a nice breakdown of this. [...]
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By gwzimm October 12, 2006 - 1:22 pm
I agree, but Brady isn’t the media darling that Smith is. Before the season even started, those wise sages of college football, Mark May and Lee Corso had already awarded the Heisman to Smith. Surprisingly, Kirk Herbstriet, an OSU grad, kept his mouth shut (to his credit).
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By OhEssYou October 13, 2006 - 11:23 am
Ummm, is this a joke? I do not think that Smith is the clear frontrunner in the Heisman. However, Smith has a significantly higher completion rate and QB rating, has thrown HALF as many interceptions and a comperable amount of touchdown passes. While Quinn throws more completions than Smith, he throws even more incompletions. There are other stats Smith has over Quinn rather than just the wins. Besides, there is no way Smith had more hype than Quinn coming into this season. It was “his to lose.” And lose it he has. Smith has never had a game where he was rattled or “off”, with the exception of the PSU monsoon. The offense still outscored Penn State 14-6. Stats aside, it is clear Smith is the better college quarterback, handling the pass rush with far more poise, throwing more accurately, and making better choices, not to mention possesing the power to run for the first on nearly every play. The race is far from decided, and there are many good players out there, but Quinn simply has not performed on the level that Smith has this season.
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By domer.mq October 13, 2006 - 11:30 am
OhEssYou,
You completely invalidate your argument using the QB Rating. Nobody on the planet actually knows how that rating is calculated. You’re practically using the Chewbacca Defense, which, of course, means you’ll win.
Fine, take the Heisman. I’ll take a QB Alum with a HUGE rookie year signing bonus and a hall of fame career, please.
Quinn Not For Heisman!!!!!!
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By Bad Kermit October 13, 2006 - 11:35 am
Of all the posts on this site, you assume that THIS one is a joke? God, I need to take some creative writing classes.
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By OhEssYou October 14, 2006 - 2:48 pm
Bad Kermit
I thought maybe this was one of your jokes.
By the way, does Chewbacca live on Endor? That does not make sense. If Chewbacca lives on Endor, then you must vote for Smith for Heisman.
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